On the two Koreas

Blog Post
The Republic of Korea (ROK) – South Korea
The Obama Administration crafted a number of very bad trade deals (from a US perspective). Foreign governments were happy with them, and who can blame them? One currently under discussion is KORUS, a bilateral deal with the US and South Korea.

A USTR fact sheet released with the statement said the U.S. trade deficit in goods with South Korea had more than doubled from $13.2 billion in 2011 — the year before the pact took effect — to $27.6 billion in 2016. It noted that the bilateral auto deficit made up about 90% of that deficit.

KORUS advocates say that some sectors have benefited under the agreement and would suffer from a breach. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce circulated a fact sheet saying that “aerospace exports to Korea have doubled to $8 billion” under the pact, while “exports of key agriculture products have soared as Korus has begun to phase out double digit tariffs.”
President Trump wants a better deal than the one we now have. Discussions are underway.
A war on the Korean Peninsula would create a situation where the trade deal is essentially moot, and the fat kid with the bad haircut is trying to get that party started.
There is a significant pacifist movement in South Korea that puts pressure on the government to make peace at any price with the horrible creature running the Hermit Kingdom up north. ‘Peace at any price’ has a familiar ring to it. History has shown over-and-over that the mindset creates and emboldens monsters. If there is one thing certain with history, it’s that it repeats itself. There will be another Korean War sooner than later and it remains to be seen on whose terms it will be fought.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) – North Korea

South Korean officials have briefed the US that they detected signs that North Korea will launch a third intercontinental ballistic missile this week. 
It’s unclear which launch indicators the South Koreans detected. Open sources have reported no signs of missile launch preparations since North Korea began using mobile missile carriers and launchers. Nevertheless, USGOV expects North Korea to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile with a simulated thermonuclear warhead, as a next step in its nuclear weapons development program.
On 3 September, North Korea detonated a probable hydrogen bomb, as its sixth nuclear test. The test occurred at Punggye-ri, the nuclear test site. A smaller seismic event followed the main detonation, which experts suggested meant the tunnel collapsed.
A variety of monitors reported that the magnitude of the explosion as up to 6.3. The estimates of yield ranged up to 120 kilotons. It was the most powerful detonation of the series, up to ten times more powerful than the “hydrogen” bomb tested in January 2016. 
The North said in its statement that its H-bomb “is a multi-functional thermonuclear nuke with great destructive power which can be detonated even at high altitudes for a super-powerful EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack, according to strategic goals.”
According to the statement, Kim claimed that “all components of the H-bomb were homemade … thus enabling the country to produce powerful nuclear weapons as many as it wants.”
The quake was felt in northern China prompting emergency sirens to go off in Yanji, near the North Korean border, according to local media.
North Korea has a credible and powerful weapon. Even the many uncertainties about the weapon tend to enhance the sense of threat. China and, lately, Russia stress that sanctions have failed to restrain North Korea, but so have talks, which Kim Jong Un has rejected except on his terms.
China has been supporting the North Korean missile program tacitly, while urging them to stop doing it. That makes no sense to most of you, but it does to the Chinese. Testing nuclear weapons that cause seismic events in China are another thing all together and they are vexed. The question remains what it will take to have China embargo and blockade North Korea. The potential impact on the environment in northeast China is one issue that could prompt China to exert stronger bilateral pressure on North Korea. Chinese leaders used it to persuade Kim Jong Un to not detonate a device last April.
The North Korean nuclear test is a public relations disaster for President Xi Jinping, who is hosting the BRICS summit in Xiamen. (BRICS is the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.) North Korea has shown that it can defy its long-time patron and neighbor with impunity.  China, thus, appears to be a world leader that cannot maintain stability across its borders. Instability on China’s northeastern border puts at risk China’s economic development program for that region.
In the past two weeks, Chinese writers and leaders have criticized the South Korean decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defense system and the increase in the Japanese defense budget. The North Korean nuclear test makes China’s complaints seem irrelevant. 
North Korea has damaged China’s image as the Asian regional leader. South Korea, Japan and probably Taiwan have little choice but to improve their defenses now. North Korea will be responsible for accelerating the remilitarization of Japan.
China and Russia both stated that they oppose additional sanctions on North Korea because they have not worked and more hardship might drive North Korea to take more risks. From a practical standpoint, the US and its allies can expect no support for more sanctions from China and Russia.
There will be more missile launches and more nuclear tests up unto the point where North Korea deliberately or accidentally triggers a war. My sense is that’s not far off – possibly this winter.

28 thoughts on “On the two Koreas

  1. War by winter. We'll put you down in the Glenn Beck camp of doom and gloom.

    That fat kid with the bad haircut has it good. He clearly knows that once war breaks out, he is a piece of fat, greasy toast. He likes his caviar and chateau briand way too much to push things past the brink.

    I think we are all wondering where exactly that 'brink' is. Launching ICBM's over Japan? One would have thought that would be the brink. Apparently the fat kid was right on that one.

    He is sharper than most of us in the West give him credit for.

  2. LL,

    So Fat-Un says it was nuclear, so it wasn't.

    Fat-Un says it was all made by Norks, so it wasn't.

    Fat-Un says that he can make as many as he wants, so he can't>

    Happy to provide translation. Call whenever one is needed.

  3. The Norks seem to be marching to the beat of a different drum. But I don't think they have any statues of Confederate generals, so at least they're not racist.

  4. Ouch – being put in the same box as Beck.

    I think that the little monster understands that we're reluctant to fight a war in Korea. He could push Obama around but I don't think that Trump is bluffing. He will push it as far as he can, and my sense is that it will be too far once too often.

  5. It was thermonuclear and they made it in-house. I don't know how many he can make.

    By providing the raw materials that he needed, the Chinese enabled him, but the Norks made the bombs.

  6. If only the Norks had Diversity they'd have moonbases by now. Just think what they could have accomplished with the mathematical genius of Katherine Johnson (Taraji P. Henson), Dorothy Vaughan (Octavia Spencer) and Mary Jackson (Janelle Monáe). It's true, all of it. They made a movie about it and everything.

  7. Well, I'll be very happy to be out of the L.A. basin / harbor area if/when it happens.

    I'm just wondering when the U.S. military will get some target practice on missiles that are launched by somebody else, rather than getting an "A" grade on the known launch vehicles that have been used as targets so far.

  8. Too many players and too many plausible scenarios. The one certainty is, "Give Peace a Chance" isn't working.

  9. I thought one of the things the Chinese warned a few months ago would provoke them into invading North Korea was anything that impacted the physical integrity of China, like setting off earthquakes. Sounds like they are not in fact prepared or inclined to invade.

  10. Bet N. Korea launches the next missile on 9/11. They do seem to like to do stuff on dates that are holidays or that have meaning here in the US. If they were ever able to cause an EMP, they had better hope they knock out whatever sub/silo/airport we would respond from. I think at that point Trump would be all done with going along with the folks who want to talk things out.

  11. How much of what they did came from Iran. And if they have more than one, how long before it finds its way to Iran?
    How much of what is going on in NK is to hide what is happening in Iran? Or is the MidEast status quo for now?

    When will Congress realize we need to increase the size of our military? The same people are deploying too many times.

    Winter isn't far off.

    Be safe and God bless us all.

  12. Quickest way to get China to shut him down is to offer Japan and ROK nukes for 'self defense'… China will fall all over itself to shut the little bastard down. I know questions are being asked by Japan about getting some.

  13. The nuclear tech went from NK to Iran, not the other way around.

    "Winter is coming" – I don't know whether or not you've watched Game of Thrones.

  14. Japan will acquire nuclear weapons quietly if they do. One thing is certain and that is the little monster is pushing the agenda that China started with the Senkoku Islands mess.

  15. I think you're on the money with a 9/11 launch.

    I strongly doubt that the US will allow the Norks to get in a position to put a thermonuclear weapon over the country to deliver an EMP blast.

  16. The fat kid with the bad haircut is making the Chinese look weak and ineffective. China hates to lose face. I don't know what they plan to do about it, but I don't think that they'll do "nothing". We all have to wait and see.

  17. Why does the average American not seem to be concerned about any of this?
    Agree with LindaG too many of our military are doing too many deployments back to back.

  18. LL,

    I believe that Fat-Un is also financed/supplied by Iran. As the Turds (Good guys are the Kurds) in Iran can not test their own, even Obama would not have been able to deal with that. So who can test weapons with relative impunity? Fat-Un.

    Weapons tested and approved, some for Fatty and some for the Turds.

  19. LL,

    The Chinese will keep Fatty in line with carrot or stick. Perhaps a well timed weapons test "accident"

  20. I don't know how much hard currency comes from Iran, but CLEARLY that is the case. The answer is to quarantine the Norks and not to allow them to send or receive shipping or to allow them to spend money outside of their beloved Norkland.

Comments are closed.

Scroll to top