Dispatches from Wuhan

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Sun Tzu in The Art of War, talked about different sorts of agents that a general might have, which are employed in the enemy’s camp to send information back. He identified five classes, or types of spies. (1) Native – Local spies; (2) Internal – inward spies; (3) Double – converted spies; (4) Expendable – doomed spies; (5) Living – surviving spies. Most spies don’t survive. It’s part of running agents in the field. I spent much of my adult life doing just that. It’s not a great job, and the satisfaction level that is derived by seeing the agents that you’ve developed, cultivated and sent in harm’s way perish is very small.
Sometimes those agents who you had hoped would end up in category 5 (surviving spies) reassign themselves roles outside of your control. They go off the reservation and risk downgrading themselves into category 4 (doomed spies).
The dispatches from Wuhan, ground zero for the current plague, the coronavirus outbreak are reported from one such person, who I hope is not doomed, but has has first hand access to reported information, and has been reliable in the past. Source, with direct access to the numbers of dead being processed by the crematory in Wuhan, says that they are processing/burning 600 bodies a day, which is their maximum capacity. 
The dead who can not be processed by the crematory are being burned in pits in the local landfill.
New facilities are under construction to be able to handle at least 1200 bodies per shift and they should be on-line shortly.
Prior to the plague, the average number of bodies burned in Wuhan was 200 per day.  They were handled on one shift. The facility is now working around the clock to manage the 600 number

Wuhan is the seventh-largest city in China with a population of about 11 million. 5 million fled the city before the military quarantined it and locked it down.

25 thoughts on “Dispatches from Wuhan

  1. I was wondering if I come down with Coronavirus, can I sue China? Asking for a friend of course…

  2. What does it profit the CDC to lie about this. They keep telling us that the mortality rate is about 2%. There is much obscuration by all official players but as nearly as I can determine for coronavirus full infection to termination, either by death or "cure", is approximately 2 weeks. On 3 February the Chinese were reporting approx. 425 dead, total. 2 weeks prior to that, approx. 15 Jan., they were reporting approx. 40 official cases, total. These two numbers are in no way reconcilable. 425 is 2% of 21,250 not 40. I understand that the ChiComs will lie about any/everything just to stay in practice, but it is a mystery why the CDC just doesn't say they can't determine they mortality rate because of said lying rather than risk the panic/distrust that sets in once the general population realizes that they are being kept in the dark and fed excrement, which is inevitable if the ChiComs are burning bodies in open trenches.
    My guess is that the mortality rate is actually between 5 and 10% but that is just a guess (it must be something well north of 2%) since everything about it, from all "official" sources (both here and there), is a lie by fabrication or a lie by omission.
    Who knows what is actually going on: and who would they tell?

  3. I heard it from a second source as well- that the crematorium was running full time. This is bad ju-ju.

    Also saw a report and video of police killing people who were trying to escape the city- no idea of how reliable it was.

  4. So, video shows a mostly empty city, presumably all the people are bunkered up in their apartments. How are they being fed? I wonder how many apartments are going to just be quiet rooms filled with the dead. Is there some mass food distribution going on we don't know about?

  5. What does it profit the CDC to lie about this.

    The CDC runs with the official numbers that the PRC provides. There are also private videos that have come of China of officials loading bodybags from private homes. It's an unofficial source, and I don't speak to its credibility. Never the less, the full numbers may be concealed from the central government in China if there is an agenda (and I don't know what that would be) to hide them.

    Having worked with the Chinese regional governments personally, I will tell you that they ROUTINELY hide the ball from Beijing due to a number of local reasons. It's genuinely routine. I've never been involved with a plague, though.

  6. I haven't gone there yet, but starvation will begin to become an issue. There is no mass food distribution going on. It comes down to what you've stored for MOST Chinese people. In some cities, Pizza Hut is making deliveries, but that's far from the rule.

    I know of people in Rural China (personal info) that they're surviving on chickens, eggs, and what stores they have. It's winter and the crops are largely dormant. In the cities you're out of luck. And if you come out without a reason they beat you. If you break the quarantine barrier, they shoot you.

  7. See news reports that regular flu is killing far more people in the US. May be true but is of little comfort.

  8. That's certainly true, and it happens every year.

    There is an unknown 'standard of care' present in China when it comes to coronavirus. In a big hospital in China, with good care, availability of medicine, IV's, etc. my sense is that patients would tend to do well. At home with a house full of equally sick people in rural China with no medical care might bring different results.

  9. cdc reports what they are given; to say different or give an opinion would be in the political realm.
    reports from the field in china are weighted more along what the reporter feels the reportee wants to hear about the reported and adjusts the numbers to assuage the emotions that worthy if the numbers are a tad high or a bit low. depends on the politics. happens there, happens here. no different, just the way it is.
    to say the burners are running in excess of 600/day every day and more leads to conspiracy roulet. that is no way to run a pandemic. you can't panic a population with low numbers. let it rip.
    researchers in India and Thailand now call foul. they are saying the virus in question has HIV RNA spliced into it. to use their expression, "that ain't natural" and that is a whole new story you won't see in the MSM for some time. so maybe something got loose from the state biomedical research station(bug farm) fun room in Wuhan?
    as for who knows or is willing to tell, it's all lies specially if it's a black program got loose and in the light. it's government and politicians.
    10% mortality rate would make 1918 spanish flu look like a warmup. a guy would suspect a higher number. 10% seems low if they are burning in pits even so the actual numbers of infected/cases/poor bastards may be far greater than we have heard. no word on mortality rates by age, sex, pregnant, health. the 1918 flu was a death sentence for pregnant mothers. the numbers for the 15~45yo victims in 1918 were skewed because the primary vector was military age men starting with patient zero in Ft. Riley,KS,USA. those men took the virus all over the USA and on to europe during the great war and it was off to the races. forty million dead?
    a virus that is transmitted airborne, blood borne, body fluid borne, surface borne with a five day lifetime, with an infectious period of two to three weeks before presenting end stage symptoms, in a population that can vector intercontinental during the infectious period. yeah, I'm gonna say 25K is a bit of a lowish number. end of next week will tell. if you see real numbers above 150K infected, you can officially panic then; you won't have to worry about being mushroomed.

  10. figure the population level 1918~1922 with 40million dead from flu and get the percentage. take todays world population of places that have air services and compute the same percentage numbers into real number of bodies in the ground. it is a really large number. it gets even worse.

  11. 1918 flu killed 3% to 5% of the world population by 1922 depending on your source. a low figure of 40M to a high figure of 100M dead. today's world population is 7.7 billion people.

  12. The reaction of the PRC led me to fear that it was an accidental release of a weaponized strain. If the information about HIV RNA baked into the design is correct, it would explain why the PLA and People's Armed Police have shoot-to-kill orders of anyone breaking out of the quarantined area.

    The lethality depends on whether it mutates and whether the mutation is as bad or worse. I'd say that if we can contain it, we've dodged a big bullet.

  13. You might have confirmed what I found during a 'mental exercise' in analyzing the Situation: bigcountryexpatoriginal.blogspot.com/2020/02/an-idea-thatd-tell-lot-and-numbers.html

  14. The WHO Coronavirus SITREP data is trending towards 3.5% mortality, which is 30 times the CDC reported flu rate of 0.135%. Granted the WHO numbers are based on China reported data.

  15. so we have a potential 270,000,000+ mortalities when it breaks out in force without a effective vaccine. I do hope the PLA did not create a synthetically altered virus that increases it's ability to infect humans that has no control or effective prophylactic. I have little confidence in that hope. unlike a ebola or marburg which are self limiting by killing the vectors, this would go around until it mutates into something more benign or so lethal it burns itself out.

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