Taiwan Dodges a (mainland) Chinese Bullet
No independence. Premier Lai Ching-te said on 3 October that President Tsai Ing-wen will not declare Taiwan independent. Tension with China should ease, though Chinese officials will never trust Lai. 

Singing the anthem of the Republic of China and waving the Republic of China flag are tolerable to the Communist Chinese because they embody the principle of “one China”, but under Nationalist governance. Neither are symbols of an independent Taiwan.

China Learns from the NFL
China has introduced a law making it illegal to “disrespect” the national anthem, punishable with two weeks in prison. The timing indicates that this is a consequential effect of protests by athletes in the US.
Pakistan
Nawaz Sharif rises again. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) party on Monday, 2 October, nominated ousted (corrupt) prime minister Nawaz Sharif as its leader. 
Sharif’s restoration to leadership means that he will not go into exile, following the example of former president and chief of army staff Pervez Musharraf. Sharif intends to fight the charges of corruption and to direct the policies of the governing party. He said he will not leave Pakistan if his legal situation deteriorates. HOWEVER, the Swiss bank accounts are in place and Pak leaders talk a good game until prison threatens. Sharif goes on trial next week for corruption.

For the record, all Pakistani leaders are corrupt.

The Kurds
Iraqi Kurdish leaders plan to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on 1 November, said Irbil-based Rudaw TV.

In the aftermath of the independence referendum, the elections could be construed as the first under an independent Kurdistan government. If the elections are held, they are likely to further aggravate the political confrontation.
Iraq’s parliament will suspend Kurdish lawmakers who voted “yes” in the Kurdish independence referendum. A list of those who voted yes will be compiled, and their parliamentary status will be suspended until a court makes a final decision.

In Kirkuk, Kurdistan

Iraq’s prime minister on Tuesday warned the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) against mobilizing its armed Peshmerga forces in the disputed northern province of Kirkuk. Good luck stopping that.

Al-Abadi said, “I warn of the actions of the region’s military mobilization in Kirkuk; it is dangerous… The imposition of a status quo by force over the disputed areas is unacceptable.”

The KRG sent Kurdish militia units to Kirkuk to prevent its seizure by the Islamic State. Despite numerous attacks and significant numbers of casualties, the Kurds held the city when the Iraqi and allied forces were fleeing the Islamic State.
Kirkuk province along with parts of the provinces of Nineveh, Saladin (northern Iraq) and Diyala (eastern Iraq) are disputed between Baghdad and the KRG and inhabited by a mixture of ethnic Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen. Land ownership rights, historic ethnic lands and control of oil resources are three of the core issues that underlie the dispute between Irbil and Baghdad over Kirkuk.
Abadi has threatened to send Iraqi Army units to Kirkuk. The Peshmerga commander in Kirkuk has vowed to resist them by force. 

In Kurdish Syria

Syrian Kurds held elections. Asia Times analyst Sami Moubayed reported that three days before Iraqi Kurds held their independence referendum, the Syrian Kurds voted in local elections. On 22 September, the Syrian Kurds held elections for commune officials.
The elections occurred without incident or obstruction by the Syrian government in Damascus.
The local elections were the first of three elections to create an autonomous or semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria. On 3 November, the Syrian Kurds will vote for local councils. Parliamentary elections in the three Kurdish districts are set for 19 January. 
The Syrian government is opposed to the creation of a federal state in the north, but the Syrian Kurds say they are open to negotiation. The Syrian Kurds have been more low key and more flexible than their Iraqi counterparts. The Damascus government also has taken no actions and made no statements that create political instability. 
The Syrian government is deferring this political issue until after the defeat of the Islamic State. 
Mali
According to a UN report released on 3 October, attacks in Mali by militant Islamists against UN peacekeepers, Malian troops and French forces have surged over the past four months and inflicted heavy casualties on security forces.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres reported that the security situation had “significantly worsened” since June.
Extremist groups carried out 75 attacks: 44 against Malian forces, 21 against the UN’s MINUSMA peacekeeping operation and 10 against the French Barkhane counter-terrorism mission. Most of the attacks occurred in northern Mali.
“These figures represent an increase of 102.7% for all attacks,” compared to the previous four months, said the report to the Security Council. During those four months, six peacekeepers, one civilian and eight UN contractors were killed and 34 other UN personnel were injured. 
The heaviest toll, however, was sustained by Malian forces, with 39 members killed and 44 wounded. The Security Council is set to discuss the crisis in Mali on 5 October.
The deterioration in the security situation is not the result of a shortage of soldiers. The French have a thousand counter-terrorist forces in Mali as part of Operation Barkhane. The Malian armed forces include at least 7,000 soldiers and is being rebuilt.
For a variety of ethnic, cultural and economic reasons, the government in Bamako tends to focus on areas along and south of the Niger River more than the regions to the north, and east where most of the attacks take place.

You may ask why I report on Mali. You may ask if I care about Mali (I don’t). It’s like much of the rest of Africa and no matter how much blood or treasure that European (and US – AFRICOM) nations pump into the place, it won’t be fixed. It’s an exercise in folly.

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9 COMMENTS

  1. LL,

    Are you inferring in any way that the Kurds should fear the Iraqi forces? You know the guys that Barry Sotero"s troops trained to be brave fighting men. That when three mangy dogs from ISIS showed up with a sling shot, machete and hack saw, they dropped their sophisticated military hardware provided by the US taxpayer, to include armored vehicles, and ran until the ISIS fighters turned said sophisticated military hardware on its now previous owner and created fly food out of said previous owner. Those fierce Iraqi forces? or their fierce infant children (as if they have the potency to deliver the goods to have children)

  2. Yes, the Kurds (who have been re-armed by USGOV) are even more formidable now than they were in past years. They'll make short work of the Iraqis and will give the Turks a warm welcome. US supplied anti-tank weapons will get a workout against Turkish armor.

  3. It's not that Africa won't be fixed….it CAN'T be fixed, at least not until something happens that changes their tribal mind-set.

    And that might take another 10,000 years…..

  5. If things on the Korean peninsula go sideways, do you see China using that as an excuse/distraction to invade Formosa?

  7. I hope the Kurds get their country or countries; and I hope we continue to support them.
    Better European NATO forces than American in Africa.
    Thank you for the update.

  8. 3 green berets were killed in Niger yesterday.

    The US has a footprint and an Air Force Base in Niger. It's a key component of Obama's Africa-first strategy. And, naturally, we're still there.

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