While you are training for diversity and destroying your own infrastructure, somebody else is training for war. When you meet them, they will win.

 

(h/t Claudio) Feb 27, 2022, (Bloomberg) –Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is rippling through global crop markets, with some traders warning they’re unlikely to offer wheat from the vital Black Sea region at a closely watched tender on Monday, while others won’t participate at all.

Egypt is one of several countries in the Middle East and North Africa that rely on massive wheat imports to feed their citizens, and Black Sea nations — particularly Russia and Ukraine — are key suppliers. Egypt canceled a previous tender on Thursday after only receiving one offer of French wheat and has now scheduled a new one.

While ports in Ukraine are closed, some Russian exporters are currently fulfilling existing contracts and ships are departing, said one person familiar with the matter. Still, at least one shipping company had vessels loaded with grain that were unable to depart a Russian port as of Friday evening, another person said.

And new deals are not being made. Traders say they are staying away from Russian grain, while exporters can’t agree to contracts at the moment because they don’t know if they will be able to fulfill them as the situation evolves, people familiar with the matter said.

Realted Article: Shipping Group Warns of More Supply Chain Disruption if Free Movement of Ukrainian and Russian Seafarers is Impeded

The uncertainty caused by the war means that importing nations are looking at their alternatives to buy from elsewhere. But the options may be limited as Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade and nearly a fifth of corn.

The disruptions come at a time when global crop prices have already soared to records, fueling inflation and hunger levels, while grain stockpiles have been declining. If Russia and Ukraine were both to leave the global grain market for an extended period it would have a dramatic effect on world food supplies and prices.

Ukraine probably has about 6 million tons of wheat left to export in the current season, and as much as 14 million tons of corn, Andrey Sizov, head of consultant SovEcon, said in a note last week. Russia has around 7 million to 7.5 million tons of wheat to export, he said.

There are a number of reasons why Russia invaded Ukraine, and control of wheat and grain that sustains much of Europe, Asia and Africa is but one.

 

 

 

33 COMMENTS

  1. I suspected wheat might be some of the impetus. From what I read, Russia’s crop was down last year, and the Ukraine had a bumper crop. Those that control the grain have leverage.

  2. As this whole thing has been unfolding it appears to me that with all who are involved the only real chess player is Putin.

  3. Australia is actually in a good position to take advantage of this, this last growing season was a record crop for most grains. The longer term ripples however, I reckon are going to bite a lot more than Russia.
    I’m sure LL is well aware of the attempts to sanction proof Russia, and the development of an alternative payment system to SWIFT. India doesn’t look to be jumping on the bandwagon, so between them and China that’s a huge export market for all sorts of produce.
    Switzerland dropping their neutrality I could see ending up like Canada’s recent accounts freeze.

    Gah. I don’t suppose some passing aliens would give me a lift off the planet? I could do without living in such “interesting” times.

    • Russia was ready for sanctions. India and China will profit from the situation. US and Australia will profit from the wheat shortfall.

      • Russia certainly has experience living under sanction, and have adapted. Not all of it makes them stronger though – Claudio sent an article suggesting 13% od Russia’s foreign exchange reserves are in Renminbi…

        I wonder how much Putin enjoys being the PRC’s bitch? More or less than our traitor politicians here at home?

        This is a mess that could have been prevented, if anyone had cared to try. AFAICT, they all decided to use it as an opportunity to solicit bribes and graft from all sides instead, so business as usual. Now it’s way too late to do anything non-escalatory. Escalation seems like a bad idea, IMO.

        Also note that since we decided to screw Ukraine on our pledge to protect their independence in exchange for nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation is now dead as a doornail. Belarus just announced an end to it’s neutrality and non-nuclear nation status, we can expect more to come publicly and a lot more, privately. Perhaps just letting them keep the nukes would have been a better idea, in retrospect.

        Fun times.

        -Kle.

  4. Left to their own devices the powers in the region probably would have worked things out. The past two decades of our State Department yahoos trying to play brinkmanship is part of the problem. Lone Star Parson has highlighted a strong religious component in the regional tensions. Where does Turkey stand? That wheat and corn won’t go via the Black Sea if Turkey says no. Russia has one port on the Baltic. Ukraine has to ship through Poland or Belarus to reach the Baltic. That leaves railroads. Is the capacity there even if political hands get sufficient grease?

  5. Have they gotten a handle on that wheat rust that was wiping out crops in some countries?
    Meanwhile, maybe it’s just me, but some of the noises calling for support of the Ukraine are people I have negative trust in – like Soros and The Shrill One.

    • It’s not just you. The same newsmedia and Big Tech platforms that gave us the crude and heavy-handed COVID propaganda are the ones that are giving us the “Ghost of Kyiv” and the brave martyrs of Snake Island. And the photos of former Miss Ukraine with her airsoft battle rifle. They are also telling us that the evil Ivans have mobile crematoria that they are using to flash-incinerate their dead, so as to conceal their appalling casualties. Highly efficient mobile crematoria are not new tech, BTW. I am reliably informed that the Nazis used hundreds of them to incinerate their victims, and this is why the remains found are lower than the claimed numbers of victims.

      By the way, anyone newly saying “Keev” is a poser fool or a bad person. It’s like when the lefties suddenly started saying “Neeka RAH hwa” and “COO-ba”. Unless you’re the sort of pretentious twit who says Pah-ree and Pra-ha when speaking normal English just say Key-Ev as we’ve been doing for decades. Jerks. (A Harvardism popular among some of the Med School faculty is to say “SAHN-ti meetur” for cm. This annoys me. If you’re going to do it, then say “sahn-ti MET trrrruh” like a proper Frenchman; don’t say “meetur” like an American. Posers.)

  6. Putin seems to be caught in an emotional bind. To Russians, the Ukraine is part of Mother Russia, but the current residents of the Ukraine remember that in then1930s, Russia stole the food and starved 6-12 million To death. There isn’t much trust left. The Russian invasion plan may have been too complex.

    Russia probably has the muscle to crush the Ukraine. That may activate the sleeping NATO, or might convince the U.S. to reactivate its energy industry. Russia needs to sell its natural gas, oil, and minerals but a blood bath in the Ukraine might send buyers elsewhere. Even a temporary shift in the markets might lead to permanent changes and pain for Russia. Tough game as long as the Ukraine continues to resist.

    For the Ukrainians, “death” is high on the kist. Putin has announced that he will eliminate “Nazis”, i.e. Ukrainian nationalists. Alternatively, the Ukrainians can risk death fighting the Russian invaders. Same-o Same-o. There seems to be no question that the government of the Ukraine is corrupt, but it comes in a package that includes lots of nasty people with missiles, RPGs, and AK-74s.

    Putin is brutal but smart, so he may find a way out of this bind.

    • I find it odd how much the Dems have been anti Russia in the last 5 years considering how much Obama was openly pro Russia.
      Makes me wonder what changed behind the scenes. And whether conspiracy theorists are right that Putin is the major world leader no “in on it”.
      Or has he just gone crazy recently?

      • We are living in a world of misdirection. If China is the problem, the elites, and the media pile-on Russia. If they want to establish tyranny, there is a plague with a 99% survival rate that justifies draconian rules. And so forth.

      • Q — Who benefits from higher prices?
        A — Anybody on commission, anybody working on a percentage.
        Example — California bureaucrats with their 9% purchase taxes.
        Nine cents on dollar fuel, forty-five cents on five-buck fuel.

  7. Russian military doctrine really hasn’t changed much since WW2. Send in the infantry using conscripts, (poor leadership and equipment) and wait for them to be decimated. Then the generals know the enemy positions, strengths/weaknesses and basically what they are up against. Then send in the A team: professional, battle-hardened, well led and supplied, (Debatable) plenty of armor, artillery, air superiority, etc. Surround, isolate or bypass enemy strongholds and cities and drive towards the objective, which seems to be Kiev. Seems to be what’s unfolding right now with a 50 mile long convoy of Russian armor and trucks heading straight towards Kiev. Target rich environment to say the least.

    • If you have air supremacy, the 50-mile column is safe. The Ukrainian armor cant move against the Russian logistics train if the Russians control the air.

      • A half dozen or so Uks hidden in the woods with LAWS could at least slow them down. Haven’t heard of any attacks on the convoy so far. They have Turkish-made drones, but where are they? Very odd.

        • the whole thing stinks to high heaven. no bodies, no shock and awe, no mrls barrages, no rpg’s, no fighting, power still on, other utilities still on. log convoy observable, but not hit in 24 hours? where is ukranian army? no embedded reporters? putin is the last anti-globalist. they are out to destroy him. he will open up the canned sunshine rather than lose. wouldn’t tonight’s speech be a prime target? or is that what the globalists want us to think?

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