Decision Making

Blog Post

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with limited competence in a particular domain overestimate their abilities. It was first described by Justin Kruger and David Dunning in 1999.

 

Thought of the Day: The sheep spend their whole lives fearing the wolf, only to be eaten by the shepherd. Once you understand this statement, the game changes, and you begin to understand politics.

 

Bullet Points:

** Facts don’t often change people’s opinions because most people don’t use them to form opinions. They use their opinions to create facts.

** Dogmas of all types are there to maintain certainty. Certainty removes fear; if those certainties are torn down, fear returns to those people. The democrat party is working hard to maintain that the law exists and is impartial (blind justice dogma). Right…and Biden doesn’t shit himself every time he gets on stage these days.

** Searching for love in all the wrong places: Pedo Joe and Jill, the younger years. (right)

** The Veep gives you a professional opinion. You must admit that it’s one of the few things she’s an expert on.

** A friend of mine in Asia is making Trump dolls for MyPillow.com. I suggested that he make Biden dolls that shit when you squeeze them. He may do it. He really liked the idea. I asked for a small royalty. If he makes them, I’ll peddle them on the blog at cost.

** Citizen Free Press tweeted, “Founding member of Black Panther Party endorses President Trump.”  Orange Man is the new black.

** CNN reported, “Dr Pepper passed Pepsi as the second biggest soda brand.” Last May, the National Legal and Policy Center reported, “PepsiCo Told to Diversify Its ‘Uniformly Woke’ Board of Directors.” (joke) How do we know Dr Pepper is a man? He never had a period (after Dr).

** Star Wars: The Acolyte is reviewed here. Reviewer’s Note: “Okay, I know why they launched this thing during Pride month.  It was no happy coincidence that the gayest Star Wars ever was let loose in the wild during June.” Another reviewer saw it this way – comparing previous Star Wars productions with this one: “It reminds me of going into an art museum, seeing paintings by Dutch Masters or Pre-Raphaelites, and then going into the modern art wing, and seeing a toilet, or a crucifix in a urine jar.”

** This begins slower-paced blogging at VM (FYI).

 

MAGA

In the News

 

From the Days of Fighting Sail

 

A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor.

 

 

We’ve all heard about the now famous Uncle Bozey, Pedo Joe’s uncle, who was eaten and scatted out by cannibals – but was it legal? (more here)

When you start looking at cannibalism at sea, you get the feeling that it’s all just a horror story and that it simply can’t be true. Because on a well-equipped boat in a sea full of fish, it seems unimaginable that you could eat your friends and colleagues. But when things go wrong badly, precedents show that the vast ocean can conjure up the specter of “survival cannibalism” surprisingly quickly. In the 18th century, this practice was so widespread that it was known as the “custom of the sea,” with some unwritten rules that seafarers in hopeless situations should follow.

The rules of the game

Drifting along the open ocean in a small open boat and facing imminent death by starvation, the moral, ethical, and legal implications seem relatively trivial, as confirmed by various court cases. Before the 19th century, cannibalism was thought to be inherent in man as a kind of instinct and was, therefore, excusable in extreme circumstances. However, this argument is only valid if those who consume their fellow sailors have already exhausted all other organic food sources. This includes everything from candles to shoes, other leather goods, and even blankets.

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But the rules of the game go much further. For example, everyone on board must agree to the act of cannibalism before the first incident occurs. And then the dead must be consumed first. Once all the dead are eaten up, they have to stick in some form, or whatever was available has to be pulled to draw lots. The unhappiest one is killed and consumed first, but the next unhappiest one is appointed as his executioner. This process must be repeated until salvation or death overtakes all and releases them from suffering.

Examples

The Méduse, or Medusa, was a French warship captained by Hugues Duroy de Chaumareys, an aristocrat with limited naval experience. In 1816, the warship ran aground on the Arguin Bank off the African shore. Some stayed aboard the 400 people on the ship, while the rest escaped onto lifeboats and a large makeshift raft. The lifeboats had promised to pull the raft, but after only a few minutes at sea, they cut the rope and left the raft stranded.

All hell broke loose on the raft during the second night at sea. Some passengers got drunk on wine (the raft’s only provision, in addition to some “soggy biscuits”), and 60 people were either killed or committed suicide. Over 13 days of depravity, passengers of the raft drank their urine, ate human flesh, starved, became ill, and threw weak survivors overboard. Finally, the French ship Argus spotted the raft and saved the remaining 15 survivors, though five died shortly after rescue.

During a winter storm in December 1710, the Nottingham Galley crashed into Boon Island, located near the coast of York, Maine. The 14 surviving crew members took refuge on the desolate island, eating a seagull raw. When the ship’s cook died, they pushed his body into the sea. By Christmas, two weeks had passed, and the 13 survivors sheltered from the cold under a canvas sail, subsisting on bits of cheese that had floated ashore from the shipwreck and some fresh water. However, without winter clothing and the means to make fire, the men were near dying from exposure to the frigid conditions.

In the days before their rescue, the desperate men resorted to eating the corpse of the ship’s carpenter to survive. The captain, who had trained as a butcher, beheaded and disemboweled him, then cut his flesh into strips before giving it to the crew. After 24 days on the island, help finally arrived to rescue the remaining men.

The Francis Mary was on passage from Canada to Liverpool. On February 1, 1826, the ship encountered strong winds that dislodged the two of its masts. Strong waves washed away the ship’s galley, rendering the vessel immobile. The crew survived on cheese and bread while waiting for help to arrive. American ships got close to the Francis Mary but could not offer assistance due to the harsh weather. The food did not last long, and people started to die from starvation and lack of fresh water.

On February 22, a man by the name of James Wilson perished and was cannibalized by the crew. They cut his body into fourths and hung the flesh on pins to dry it out before eating. Before their rescue by the HMS Blonde in March, eight more men would die and have parts of their bodies eaten – including their hearts.

The Peggy was an American schooner that sailed from New York to Faial Island in the Azores in 1765. After trading, the crew, including one enslaved African, started their return voyage. They didn’t get far into their journey before encountering trouble when a severe thunderstorm disabled the ship. The storm outlasted their rations, and the men began to subsist on wine and brandy and eat a pigeon, a cat, tobacco, leather, and candles.

After exhausting all of these options, the men were forced to draw lots to decide who to kill and consume. The enslaved man supposedly drew the shortest lot, but it is speculated that the men predetermined his fate. One sailor ate his liver raw and died three days later in a fit of madness. The others pickled and cooked the rest of his body. When no meat remained, lots were drawn again, but the crew was rescued by Susanna just before the next sailor was due to be killed.

The Franklin Expedition: Who does not know the tragic Arctic expedition of Sir John Franklin, who set out in 1845 with HMS Terror and Erebus to find the Northwest Passage? They left, and then no one heard of the ship—or the 128 men on board.

Over the years, experts have been able to piece together a story of what might have happened, but it is still impossible to do so in its entirety, as parts of the puzzle are still missing. The ships got stuck in the ice, and although the crew had supplies on board, they set out to search the frozen land of King William Island for a trading post.  Some men died of hypothermia and scurvy but probably starved to death. The Inuit claimed to have seen signs of cannibalism, such as heaps of broken human bones.  Anthropologists who studied the bones found on the island supported these stories. The men’s bones were broken and covered with knife marks and also showed signs of being heated, probably to extract bone marrow. One should emphasize that, in both the case of Franklin’s men, we do not indicate that anyone actively sought to kill anyone else to eat them.

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A 1945 photo of skulls of some men of the Franklin Expedition, bleached white by the sun, discovered around King William Island in what is now Nunavut.

The Mignonette was an English yacht purchased by lawyer Jack Want in 1884 to be sailed from Essex to Sydney. A four-man crew comprised Captain Tom Dudley, Edwin Stephens, Ned Brooks, and 17-year-old Richard Parker. Just weeks after the crew set sail, a wave struck the Mignonette, washing away the windward fortification, causing the ship to sink rapidly and forcing the crew to escape onto a 13-foot dinghy. They could not bring any fresh water or food, beyond two tins of turnips.

The crew survived on turnips, urine, and an unlucky turtle for days, but they were becoming desperate. Tom Dudley introduced the idea of killing and eating Parker, who had become ill and unconscious from drinking seawater. The perpetrators assumed that Parker’s blood would be more edible if he did not die a natural death but was killed. Stephens and Brooks agreed to it, though Brooks refused later to participate. The three men devoured Parker’s body; it kept them alive for weeks until the German barque, Montezuma, found the men after 24 days at sea.

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The end of Richard Parker

Change in legislation

In the case of the Mignonette, everything changed, whether it was because one did not see here the correct following of the rules as assumed or simply the feeling of such an act as a custom to watch simply no longer there. The Victorian Era had a very different view of morality and considered many things outdated and barbaric, so it is quite possible that this new moral perception played a big role.

The three survivors were brought to justice, and although the whole population stood behind them and their actions, they were not allowed to go to court. The three were convicted of murder and should be punished by hanging. However, due to the population’s resistance, the punishment was changed to six months in prison. The three survivors never accepted this punishment.  But from then on, the custom of the sea was no longer exempt from punishment. Instead, it is now mostly punished by imprisonment.

 

Don’t let the Liberals play with your Balls

 

Identify the Aircraft

1

2038 were built

2

3

 

Identify the Armor

4

5

These (below) may be more of a challenge.

 

Parting Shot

 

37 thoughts on “Decision Making

  1. IDA-
    1. Yokosuka D4Y1
    2. YAK-38M
    3. AN-22
    4. Heuschrecke 10 “Grasshopper
    5. Hungarian M41 ” Turan II” Medium Tank

  2. Identify the Aircraft:
    1. Yokosuka D4Y1 Judy
    2. Yakovlev Yak-38 Forger
    3. Antonov An-22 Cock
    Identify the Armor:
    4. Sonderkraftfahrzeug 165/1
    5. 40M Turán

    1. I had hopes that the Sonderkraftfahrzeug 165/1 would slow you down…I guess not.
      **
      Monday didn’t slow you guys down.

  3. Rotherham, be sure to thank the princes of the realm for standing up for their people. Noblesse oblige and all that.

  4. Naval cannibalism is not forgotten in the far future either:
    “What do you suppose the aliens taste like?” Captain Tanya Desjani wondered. “We can’t eat them,” Geary said. “They’re sentient.” “Humans sometimes eat other humans in emergencies,” she pointed out. “Like after a shipwreck. It’s almost a naval tradition.” “I’ve heard that,” Geary said. “Aren’t you supposed to eat the most junior personnel first?” “That’s what I’ve heard.” Desjani looked toward her watch-standers. “Just so we have things planned out in advance, which one of you has the latest date of rank?” The lieutenants exchanged looks and grins. “Actually, Captain,” Castries said, “Yuon and I were promoted on the same day.”
    “Well, we can’t eat both of you right off the bat. I assume you’d object to using alphabetical order to decide the problem, Lieutenant Castries?” “Not if we used first names, Captain,” Castries replied. “Mine is Xenia.” “That would be hard to beat,” Desjani said. “Wouldn’t it, Lieutenant Bhasan Yuon?” Yuon shook his head. “I really think Lieutenant Castries would make a better meal, Captain. I’d be tough and lean.” “Five minutes to jump,” the maneuvering watch said.
    “Maybe you two could flip a coin.” Desjani raised one finger, looking inspired. “No. I’ll just get an ensign assigned to this watch team.” “Ensign slash emergency food supply?” Geary asked. “We don’t have to put that in the position’s job description. It might discourage volunteers.”
    Geary was watching his fleet now, sparing only quick glances for the alien hypernet gate, which still showed no signs of beginning to collapse. None of the ships were lagging anymore, every one matching pace with the others. Two minutes remaining. The fleet would jump automatically when the maneuvering systems detected that it was in position, so he didn’t even have to order the jump this time, which might have cost a few extra, critical seconds. “One minute to jump,” the maneuvering watch said. “It takes the gates more than a minute to collapse,” Desjani said, “and we haven’t seen it start. We’re clear.” “Yes,” Geary agreed. “We are.” He tapped his controls. “All units, the aliens may be using their faster-than-light comm capability to muster forces at Alihi. Be ready for a fight when we exit jump.”
    Forty seconds later, the fleet jumped for Alihi. Desjani sighed and stood up as the gray of jump space replaced the alien threat at Hina. “I’m tired, and for some reason I’m hungry. I’m going to get something to eat.” She leaned closer to Geary. “Next time you come up with something to distract everyone.” “I won’t be able to equal you.” “No, but you can do your best, Admiral.” With that parting shot, Desjani left the bridge.

    Jack Campbell, The Lost Fleet — Beyond the Frontier: Dreadnaught

    1. It’s good to know that the traditions of naval cannibalism will continue as we reach to the stars. (Uncle Bosey did not die in vain – the legacy endures)

  5. SISU MAGA ™- PDJT and The First Lady exude confidence, style, and leadership (her, quietly)…which is why The Swampdwellers hate them….can’t come close to these two.
    *
    Dunning–Kruger effect – Like the one who wanders into a meeting late (same one who never remakes the coffee service after taking the last cup), then proceeds to pose questions everyone already knows the answer to, then works to control the meeting thereafter. Pure poseurs. Same with 90% of politicians.
    *
    Rotherdam- Name the race/religion…people, get a clue. Minimally we really need more gallows, both in The Motherland and here in The Colonies.
    *
    Parting Shot- I can attest to that…’new’ sections of I-25 are lousy at best. Took the pickup to drop MrsPaulM at DIA (waay East of Denver where Romer and Pena owned land)…every bridge transition is STILL a speedbump. Modern engineers need to be transported back in time to learn a few things while unlearning their college taught engineering. We should have perfect road surfaces…but we never get them for the 10’s of millions spent (not excluding the “half for you, half for me/we need a minority womyn-owned contractor” cheatery/idiocy graft). How long will it take Gubmint to repair Teton Pass (Jackson to Driggs) washed out road? A year…when a private incentivized contractor would make it at least 1-way in two weeks working his crew overtime to get it done.
    *
    Sidebar #1- Jack Cashill (www.Worldnetdaily.com) wrote a new book out (May 14th release): “ASHLI: The Untold Story of the Women of January 6”. Heard him on Stigall this morning, even more damning than we could have known. The Leviathan twisted every fact to present an insurrection narrative that the “unitiated” ate up like mother’s milk. BTW, Wikipedia leads with this tagline: “Cashill…is an American author, blogger and conspiracy theorist.” The scumbaggery is at every level to push the big lie.
    *
    Sidebar #2- Purple mattress 3rd night review- Excellent. Different “feel” than our 18 yo MemFoam one, but designed with the [Purple] gel grid on top to conform and support, which feels a little squishy at first but with superior conformity support once “in place” regardless of tossing and turning (as we “alpha’s” tend to do, especially iffn’ we hear that bump in the night.)

    1. You don’t want to sleep TOO soundly in the event that you need to stand-to and meet the immediate threat. Thanks for the mattress review.
      *
      The Rotherdam people behave like savages. The elite don’t care because they’re protected by high walls and armed guards. Those measures have their limits in the real world, but so far, they work for them.

      1. It’s not that the “elite” don’t care. I’m mortally certain that some of the “elite” positively revel in the thought that young White girls are being sexually abused by imported savages. No few of the “elite” purely Hate you. And they don’t “want you dead” as the meme goes. They want you humiliated, terrorized, and utterly demoralized. Because they revel in human suffering. And no, some inbred mostly German git isn’t at the top of the “elite” heap in the UK.

        The “intellectual” fraction of the Rotherham pedo-rapists would tell you, “We’re simply doing to your girls what you people did to our country.” And to be completely honest, that’s not entirely wrong. Doesn’t justify any of it, but it’s not a complete fabrication. The Chinese still hate the British (the Sassoons, those quintessential Brits) for the Opium Wars and the Century of Humiliation. Which, apart from solid practical reasons, is one reason the Chinese are so enthusiastic about the fentanyl trade.

        The root mistake was letting the Rotherham types into the homeland in the first place. But now that they’re firmly lodged in place (c.f. “toxic megacolon”), those judges and politicians who are afraid of applying Already Existing Laws to them are worse enemies of the people than the pedo-rapists themselves.

        1. Reasons aside (and you are correct in what generates their inbred attitude) these evil-doers need to have the air let out of them.

      2. LL- I sleep with one eye open and one ear on alert. Pretty sure it’s a built into the wiring thing. Funny how we operate that way…like going around the house while everyone else is already in bed, checking the doors and windows (aka entry points) before hitting the hay. My dad did it, we “boys” do it.

    2. Paul M
      Priorities, CDOT addition. US 85 at WCR 44 (Peckham) has an enormous overpass costing three years and millions of dollars. First overpass constructed on US 85 in more than twenty years. While a very dangerous intersection (with light traffic) was eliminated, the rest of US 85 continues to be governed by stop lights.

      Performed a family ZTrip to DIA yesterday. Is there a less driver friendly airport in the country? When the toll booths were closed years ago a perfectly good building and ample parking was left vacant and a new “cell phone” lot built with a maze to access and then go to the terminal.

      1. I know…same here with Owl Canyon (North of Wellington…closed for bridge upgrades for months now, only they only tell you about the “detour” AFTER you exit I-25. Peckham bridge et l is $28+ million for a mile. Crashes are mainly due to increased traffic volumes (if you build it they will come) coupled to lousy/distracted drivers. 287 is the same up this way.

        DIA stinks for traffic control and they continue to rework the entry roadways to no avail. But hey, we have the Demon Horse statue no one likes (instead of a proper Remington type) because…Pena’…he liked this Hispanic artist, who, strangely, was killed shortly after finishing it, fell over on him. Yet TPTB keep the red glow eyes at night. Creepy (like a lot of theories about DIA and why it was plunked that far out).

        1. First time I saw “Blucifer” was during the day, and I thought it was interesting. Then I saw it at night, and……………WTF? I’ve been in and through a lot of airports, and DIA isn’t as bad as some, but it seems like they’re constantly working on either the terminal, or the roads. I-25 will never be “finished”, and the exits down by 34 and The Ranch are crazy. Multiple traffic circles as soon as you get off the Interstate? WTF thought that one up?

          1. The PhD geniuses, that’s who. Common sense is a rare commodity/trait these days..far too many design in a vacuum. Suggested to the county engineer (she was a straight shooter and competent, but her hands were tied by the bureaucrats) to NOT MAKE the traffic circles too small and make them all the same size (also told her to check out Denmark’s, consistent and simple). Years later look what we got…but hey, we got art planted in the center.

        2. I have no regrets leaving the Denver area when I did 20 some odd years ago. It started earlier but the real downfall was when gambling was legalized in ’93 or so. Worse than the marijuana legalization.

  6. Rotherdam is just ‘one’ of many… Liverpool, etc. are infested. And the number of cities with muslim ‘mayors’ is amazing! The formerly ‘Great’ Britain is doomed, they have been taken over my a minority group of immigrants.

  7. Just finished reading LL’s new book “The shorts.” If you enjoyed even half of his stories here on the blog you’ll enjoy the new book. Also included is one of Michael Watson’s chapters from his book “Hunting in the Shadows”.
    *
    Part one of the book is a mix of different stories. Some were old friends having already read them here on this blog. But a number were all new.
    *
    Part two of the book is about criminal informants. I actually read Part two in one sitting as the stories were so interesting. If you think from watching TV or movies you know about criminal informants in California you dont’t. The stories are eye opening about crime, corruption and the failings of humans.
    *
    I also left a short review on Amazon.
    *
    An excellent book and I look forward to volume two.

  8. Ps… I’m going back and reading Michael Watson’s book “Hunting in the Shadows” again. Having read that chapter in “The Shorts” has rekindled a need to read the entire book. Then I’ll read Larry’s book “White Powder” again too. Both of these books would make good movies in comparison to the current movie theater nonsense.

    1. Hollywood is a hostile, toxic place. The films they’re making in Nevada in the new non-woke companies might be better. The best way to become a millionaire is to start out a billionaire. The industry, movie making, AI, it’s morphing and the Prime/Netflix/AppleTV funding is the way they’re being made now. Theaters are dead. It changes funding dynamics.

      1. I still enjoy going out to the theater for certain movies. The sound systems are superior to what I have.Due to the layout of the den/family room, it isn’t feasible to put in a decent surround sound system. And to get a really big screen, and have it centered in the room, would require a projector and a retractable screen. Nope. I have other things I’d rather spend that much money on.

        1. People still go to the theaters from time to time, but the “blockbusters” that kept them in the black just don’t happen that often and the general public tends to stay home.

          1. Last one was Maverick…because it was best viewed in a theater. Have a Studio City in Laramie, assigned recliner seating, plus if you want they have an ARQ curved screen. Now we own it so can revisit whenever without the cost…but the Whirly Pop has to suffice for Movie Theater Popcorn.

  9. I’m not sure which has been worse on the modern media, from the news channels to Hollywood: their display of the Dunning-Kruger Effect, or their reliance on the Gell-Mann Amnesia Affect to cover it up. (The latter, I find a particularly amusing bit of truth in fiction. Nobody seems in a hurry to verify it actually exists (or to try to disprove it), yet shortly after Crichton made it up and told people he’d done so in a speech, it’s been cemented in our cultural understanding of the world right next to actually studied effects.)

    Stay safe out there, and enjoy the break from posting.

    1. I’m shifting to an every-other day blogging schedule which means even days, for the time being. There will be exceptions like Juneteenth, and other important holidays that need to be observed. The blog morphed from a daily post to a blog magazine (emphasis on the MAGA). The every other day posts will help me focus on quality (but who really knows?)

        1. Exactly. I hope you’re planning your Juneteenth observance with great care and circumspection.

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