Maybe not. That sort of inscrutable wisdom doesn’t come cheap and the Chinese are notoriously tight fisted. (Shameless plug for “Consulting Services”)
Irrespective of Chinese attention, steaks will be consumed with a possible doggy bag for Blue Avenger, LSP’s faithful hound.
Because we are dealing with Chinese, there is always a subrosa type of message that accompanies these things that explains to everyone too stupid to get the message what the message really is.
“The One China policy is not for selling. Trump thinks that everything can be valued and, as long as his leverage is strong enough, he can sell or buy. If a price can be put on the US Constitution, will the American people sell their country’s constitution and implement the political systems of Saudi Arabia or Singapore?”
“Trump needs to learn to handle foreign affairs modestly, especially the China-US relationship. More importantly, a hard struggle against Trump is needed to let him know that China and other world powers cannot be easily taken advantage of.”
“If Trump gave up the One China policy, publicly supported Taiwan independence and wantonly sold weapons to Taiwan, China would have no grounds to partner with Washington on international affairs and contain forces hostile to the US. In response to Trump’s provocations, Beijing could offer support, even military assistance to US foes.”
“The One China policy has maintained peace and prosperity in Taiwan, and, if abandoned, cross-Straits ties would see a real storm. China would introduce a series of new Taiwan polices, and may not prioritize peaceful reunification over a military takeover if Trump insisted on his provocations. The US has no control over the Straits, and Trump is naïve to think he can use the One China policy as a bargaining chip to win economic benefits from China.”
“…Nothing is impossible if the Trump administration goes too far.”
“In the meantime, it’s very likely that Trump may not have put too much thought into it. He is no geopolitical maniac, but just has little experience in diplomacy. He doesn’t understand how dangerous it can be when he involves the US in such an explosive game. After all, this requires some personal experience.”
“Given his inexperience, Trump is easily subject to the hawkish advisers around him. He assumes whatever he says doesn’t matter before he takes office. We will learn more about how he interprets the One China policy after he is sworn in. Meanwhile, China needs to be fully armed and prepared to take a Sino-US rollercoaster relationship together with Trump. And many others in the world will probably also need to fasten their seatbelts.”
Global Times disclosed in this “op ed” the thinking of a faction, possibly the majority, of the Chinese leadership to include President Xi. The piece reveals that China already has developed contingency responses to the incoming US administration. Early planning is characteristic of Chinese crisis management style. China is preparing for what could evolve into a crisis in US relations.
For China it’s not so much the Taiwan issue as it is the prospect of a tougher US trade policy that has them on edge. The screwing of America has been a source of big money for the Chinese and US dependence on Chinese-made goods that enter the US without a meaningful tariff. In part, it is the engine that propels Chinese national growth. For President Xi to remain in office, China must experience growth at a scale unprecedented by American domestic standards.
It’s not just the frightening prospect of US tariffs that concerns the Chinese. What about Europe (becoming increasingly nationalistic) and their cheap Chinese imports and knock-offs? What if the West gets serious about stopping Chinese industrial espionage? These issues are met with anger and emotion from China, which sees all of these things as its ‘right to take’. None of us should be surprised if the emotion from China increases and if they react — but their reaction has to be tempered. If they take their toys (literally) and go home, they will wither on the vine.
|Gov. Branstad and President Xi|
The US owes China a couple trillion dollars. If you owe somebody $300, you’re a debtor. If you owe them $3,000,000,000,000, you’re a partner. President Trump understands this. President Obama, who the Chinese felt was “unclean”, did not, and they didn’t respect him in the slightest.
The Chinese emotion extends to respect of a strong opponent and leader. President Trump is not going to be a push over, but he understands that the US and China need to cooperate. That’s why he is appointing Gov. Terry Branstad as US Ambassador to China. The signals from Trump are not mixed. He’s not their huckleberry but he is willing to talk. Future trade deals will benefit the USA more completely.