Your Fortune Telling Blog

Blog Post

From the Mail Bag (Caption): “When I look at your previous blog entries over the years, you’re remarkably prescient.”

 

 

Another Illegal Alien Truck Driver

On Saturday, Yuma Station agents initiated a vehicle stop on a tractor-trailer. The driver, an Indian national illegally present in the U.S., failed to yield; other law enforcement agencies assisted by deploying a controlled tire deflation device that caused the truck to stop. The driver attempted to flee on foot but was promptly arrested about a hundred yards away by a Yuma Station agent. Varinder Singh is an Indian national with an outstanding warrant for Failure to Appear in Immigration Court. Singh is being charged with fleeing from law enforcement, being in the country illegally, and will also face state charges.

 

Life in the Big Apple

“Private property, including and kind of ESPECIALLY homeownership, is a weapon of white supremacy masquerading as ‘wealth-building’ public policy.” These are all Twitter posts by Cea Weaver, Mamdani’s new Director of the Office to Protect Tenants. Weaver is the former director of coalitions at Housing Justice for All. This group counts dozens of radical, far-left organizations as coalition members, including the Communist Party of the United States of America and the New York Young Communist League.

“It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies and nosers-out of unorthodoxy.” (1984)

Mayor Zoltan Mamdani is wasting no time. He is on record as saying that housing should be “decommodified”, which is Marxist-speak for the idea that the real estate you thought you owned should now belong to the state. He is now moving quickly to put that principle into action. The test case he has chosen involves Pinnacle Realty. Pinnacle owns 146 properties across New York City. It is in bankruptcy proceedings and wants to sell off 93 of these properties. Thousands of New Yorkers are tenants in these buildings. Welcome to the revolution.

It’s nice not to live in New York City. You fled at the right moment, Claudio.

 

The Confederate Cipher

While I’m casting the runes, I foresee that the novel, The Confederate Cipher, will be live for purchase by the end of the week in both electronic and paperback formats. It is the first book in what will be at least a three-part series. Whether there will be more books in the series depends on the success of the first three. Do I keep writing the Henry Hudson story, or do I move on to another concept/project?

In a fit of clairvoyance, I also foresee that Hudson’s Scouts, book two, will be available in both formats by the end of February. The third novel, The Crow River Expedition, is anticipated by early summer.

The Confederate Cipher is a historical novel that depicts the British Government’s secret role in American politics leading up to the War Between the States, despite the uncertainties of history surrounding it. The novel also tells the story of Henry L. Hudson, a young man who nearly caused trouble for his wealthy family and was sent to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point to keep him away from a brewing scandal.

Many talented people have meticulously researched the American Civil War/War of Northern Aggression/War Between the States/. Although analysts don’t always agree, there is usually consensus on the central issues. When there were differences of opinion about the events and times in this novel, the author chose the version that aligned most with the story’s thesis.

The British had fought two wars on the American continent and had a direct interest in agricultural products from the South and in manufactured goods from the North. Assuming they remained uninvolved is strange. Events such as the death of Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, husband and consort of Queen Victoria, in 1861 affected British politics in unexpected ways. Eventually, although the British enforced the blockade and sought an alternative cotton source in Mexico, they smuggled arms and ammunition. Still, they did not pursue military intervention by the Royal Navy and the British Army.

Their codes, ciphers, and systems of statecraft and tradecraft, however, were used primarily by the Confederacy. Thus, we have the Confederate Cipher and the care and training of Henry Hudson, which unfold on the pages of this and subsequent novels.

Can spies truly fall in love, or do the damaging secrets necessary for honesty and intimacy interfere with it? Some argue that they can fall in love but also admit it’s a significant professional risk, potentially endangering careers, security, and lives, as emotions can impair judgment and create vulnerabilities. Lieutenant Henry L. Hudson, U. S. Army, is about to run headlong into this Gordian Knot.

Love happens in the spy world, but it’s a double-edged sword, capable of being a strength, a tool, or a devastating weakness.

 

Venezuelan Oil

The US has been refining and burning Venezuelan Oil for a very long time. It’s high-sulfur oil, and the Canadian Tar Sands are essentially asphalt, but we refine and burn that too. It’s blended and refined, and it reaches the international market, sold on spot. If you live in the Midwest, it’s 100% likely that you have petroleum from Canada in your tank, and corn/ethanol from Nebraska and Iowa as well. That’s how the oil market works. It would be nice if a practical discussion of the drilling, blending, and refining process were better known, but it’s not. It’s an international commodity, and the price is heavily influenced by OPEC, of which Venezuela is a member. Does that mean that the US is now a “member” by default? I have no idea.

We’ll run Venezuela in a way that manages to harm both the citizens of the United States and the people of Venezuela while enriching a tiny minority of less than 0.5% of the US population, and that minority will most assuredly NOT be representative of US demographics as a whole. That’s what is going to happen.” If history is consulted, I suspect that Mike_C’s crystal ball is neither broken nor cloudy. I hope that he’s wrong, but my confidence that we won’t F-things up the way we have in Iraq and elsewhere within my lifespan is low that we’ll manage to do the ‘right thing’ – not what’s right for BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard.

 

Bullet Points:

** High delinquency rates for used car loans – discussed.

** The Real Housewives of ISIS!

** It was easier to capture a Venezuelan dictator surrounded by Cuban bodyguards than it is to find a kid in a Somali-run Minnesota daycare.

** Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel threatened America, saying Cubans will make them “pay a very heavy price” for Venezuela. “For Venezuela…we are prepared to give even our blood. Even our own lives.” – My answer is – “okay.”

** Where are your badges?

** Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) is the only democrat to release a positive statement after the capture of Nicolas Maduro: “Grateful for our U.S. military personnel that handled these orders in Venezuela with precision. I maintain that we have the STRONGEST military in the world, and today proves that even more.”

** To all you haters – Nicolas Maduro and spouse entered the US LEGALLY.

** Get well, EdB. If they hold you at the hospital too long, I’ll send a cake with a file baked into it.

 

Chinese Junk

When I was last in Iraq, a couple of months ago, the Iraqis complained that their Chinese-made radar was junk. The Chinese also supplied Venezuela (and they made the tires that the Russian Army rolled on for a short while). Recent reports indicate that Chinese-made radar systems in Venezuela (JYL‑1, JY‑11B, JY‑27) were unable to detect U.S. forces, allowing US aircraft to enter Venezuelan airspace without timely detection. The Iranians, who used the best Chinese and Russian radar systems, had similar problems with the Israelis. Cheesecake photos of Venezuelans with their Chicom radar (below).

Beijing’s long-advertised shield in Venezuela has failed under real combat pressure, exposing the limits of Chinese military systems when confronted by the United States in a modern, high-intensity operation.

For years, the Venezuelan military invested heavily in Chinese-made equipment, presenting it as the most advanced defense architecture in South America. At the center of that claim was an air-defense network built around the JY-27 counter-stealth radar, a system repeatedly promoted as capable of detecting and tracking U.S. stealth aircraft such as the F-22 and F-35. Venezuela’s Marine Corps was likewise showcased as a regional heavyweight, equipped with VN-16 and VN-18 amphibious armored vehicles and supported by Chinese rocket artillery. Together, these systems were meant to form a layered, resilient defense that could deter or at least blunt U.S. military power.

That image collapsed rapidly once operations began.

According to battlefield assessments and analyst commentary, Chinese-built radar and command systems suffered what can only be described as catastrophic paralysis. In the opening phase, U.S. electronic warfare assets targeted Venezuela’s sensing and communications layers. Radars were overwhelmed by jamming, command links were disrupted, and air-defense coordination degraded almost immediately. Follow-on strikes then eliminated exposed systems that could no longer see, communicate, or reposition effectively. The vaunted counter-stealth capability never materialized, not because stealth aircraft were absent, but because the network intended to detect them went blind before it could function.

This failure extended beyond radar screens. Venezuela had been treated as a showcase for Chinese arms exports in Latin America. Still, the moment those systems were placed inside a contested electromagnetic environment against a top-tier opponent, their fragility became apparent. Weapons advertised as able to “counter the West” proved unable to survive the first hours of a coordinated, system-of-systems campaign.

On the ground, the story was similar. Venezuela’s Marine Corps, often described as the best-equipped amphibious force in South America, found itself exposed once air superiority was lost. VN-series armored vehicles, including the VN-16 assault vehicle and VN-18 infantry fighting vehicle, lacked protection against persistent aerial surveillance and precision strikes. Footage and reports indicate that many vehicles were not destroyed in classic armored engagements but were abandoned after air attacks on highways, staging areas, and coastal routes. The SR-5 multiple rocket launcher system, dependent on intact targeting data and communications, failed to deliver effective fire once those links were disrupted.

The absence of meaningful air and naval power compounded the problem. Venezuela’s Air Force, operating K-8W trainer and light attack aircraft, was grounded early. Designed for permissive environments and counter-narcotics missions, these aircraft could not survive once the United States secured control of the air. Naval assets armed with Chinese C-802A anti-ship missiles fared no better, as U.S. battlefield awareness and electronic suppression neutralized their ability to target or engage effectively.

Military analysts argue that what unfolded was not simply a defeat of individual platforms, but a comprehensive collapse of Chinese-style command and control under pressure. China has demonstrated an ability to produce advanced hardware—radar, armored vehicles, missile systems—but integrating those components into a resilient, jam-resistant operational network remains a significant weakness when facing a peer or near-peer adversary. Without protected communications, distributed decision-making, and robust training for degraded conditions, even modern equipment becomes inert.

This episode underscores a lesson the U.S. military has long internalized. Firepower and equipment matter, but they are not decisive on their own. The first objective is always to impose fog on the enemy: to shut down command, control, communications, intelligence, and coordination. Turn out the lights, sever the links, and force confusion. Once that happens, even large arsenals and modern platforms struggle to function.

Venezuela’s experience shows that high-tech weapons without survivable integration and realistic preparation are not a shield. Against an adversary that prioritizes information dominance and electronic warfare, they become little more than expensive steel left in the dark.

 

Identify the Aircraft

1

 

2

 

Identify the Armor

3

 

Identify the Ship

4

AlK keeps complaining that he can’t ID the hardware. Take a shot at this one.

 

Parting Shot

 

End

 

54 thoughts on “Your Fortune Telling Blog

  1. Identify the Aircraft:
    1. Egyptian Helwan HA-300
    2. Westland Lynx HMA.8
    Identify the Armor:
    3. Chieftain
    Identify the Ship:
    4. USS Kirk, Knox-class frigate

      1. It’s the January systems update: they get heavier and heavier to digest by the year. Always go for the low booze version, it’s safer…

  2. 1 ?
    2 is Westland Wildcat HMA2 code name LYNX
    3 is British Chieftain MK10 with 120 mm gun.
    4 is USS Kirk was a Knox-class destroyer escort, originally and later reclassified as a frigate.

  3. Always funny to see non-Western systems meet Western ones. It’s been a long time since
    they were really competitive, not that the purchasers usually have any choice of product.
    *
    The other thing about buying PRC defense is… can you ever really be sure you’re getting
    the real stuff, instead of convincing-seeming junk? I’m sure it’ll still work well enough against
    other, even weaker 3rd world countries, and what are the chances America will ever attack?
    Oops.
    – Kle.

    1. You would think the Hello Kitty stickers would have been a dead giveaway.

  4. 1 – Helwan HA-300
    2 – AgustaWestland AW159
    3 – British Chieftain
    4 – USS Kirk Knox-class frigate

  5. On my Snake Plissken escape from NYC, minus the drama, I wonder if my former neighbours will ever learn from their mistakes… And doubt the Commies will leave gracefully, if ever…

  6. Whoever we prop up as running Venezuela better get some good advice from the folks who transitioned from Communism in Poland and Hungary about how to do it and damn skippy or it’ll be meet The New Boss, same as The Old Boss and that damn skippy, too. That advice might come in handy when the snake has to be decapitated in NYFC in a few years, too.

  7. From what I have read and heard from trusted ‘news’ sources (and I have no real clue about this stuff except what I glean here and there…especially ‘here’)…Rubio will be ‘governor’ for a few months until a proper election can be held. This Venezuelan operation is not Afghanistan, regime change will [likely] be from within…and by all accounts, citizens are all in with getting the Maduro’s out, just now being perp walked into court in their very stylish orange jumpsuits. (Except for Fetterman, every Dem needs to take a pause and realize PDJT is not messing around, like ‘the dad look’ when I would get fidgety as a kid when out for dinner…stops immediately…and The DC Criminals in nice suits should be worried they will be indicted next.)
    ***
    MadMommie’s ‘Housing Director’: “Marxism for all! You do not own your business, building, or apartment, and vee vill take it from you for the greater good.” Lunatic fringe come to a NYC business near you. Geez.
    Musk had an epic X exchange response when some obscure Senator (Roland Gutierrez, Texas) spouted that Musk “built his business on taxpayers backs, getting wealthy while “we” (always invoking the collective we) struggle to by groceries”, therefore does not deserve his ‘absurd’ high compensation (which was Board driven). Musk’s response was a total takedown of a person who believes because he is in some elected position are the smartest person in the room. Cea will soon find out what Gutierrez already has, ‘you are not very smart and people don’t like you very much’. Maybe…NYC voters seem to be drinking a lot og Kool Aid these days.

    1. See Ed…no ability to catch typos on the iPad…so why even try (at least that is what I tell myself despite best efforts). Hope your hospital stint goes okay and no ‘baked cake with hidden file’ to exfil is necessary.

      1. Dad used to say “We’ll sell them the rope they hang themselves”…maybe this is what it will take to rid America of these so-called Democratic Socialists once and for all (not holding my breath, so many have shown themselves to be such mindless lemmings).

        1. That’s the correct version, dad would also say that depending on what was going on in the world.

  8. Hey, it’s the USS Kirk destroyer escort! Now a days we call them frigates. Circa Vietnam. I knew one!
    *
    It would be interesting to gather up some of the chinesium junk from Venezuela and haul it out to the western USA practice areas and see what “our guys” could do with it. Is it the equipment junk or just another case of idiots with decent toys? Of course unsaid was for two months our aircraft practice ran into their airspace to get them to turn on their radars, which we then knew all about and targeted them for destruction.

    1. The Israelis tinkered with Chinese equipment in Iran with noticeable results. In speaking with the Iraqis, they had precisely zero confidence in their Chineseium equipment. It looks as if I’ll be back there this next month with specific dates pending.

  9. Forgot to say… liking that British red cover with a nice medal for the uniform. Very clear on the Brit influences.

    1. I decided to do my own cover, and given that the Coldstream Guards do play a role in the Confederate Cipher saga, I went with the gaudy, but recognizable, not unlike the cover for White Powder. The cover needs a few adjustments, and I decided to wait on the proof copy to arrive from Amazon before making the tweaks.

  10. from what i can glean from foreign sources, the vennie vp thinks she’s in charge now. i think we should have taken out the whole top tier of their government to get the true-believers out. trump was touting the real winner of the election a few days ago but suddenly flipped on her. to paraphrase obammy,”never underestimate the ability of [republicans] to hose things up.”

    1. She’s playing ball with USGOV. Some of her statements for the domestic audience were a tad caustic, but I think it’s under control.

    2. Hearing noises that things are starting to go bang over there. Locals may be doing their own thing about cleaning up some of the remaining elements.
      If the locals got access to armories, there are a lot of grudges to settle.

  11. Slightly off-topic: knee injection caused cartilage to regrow. Saw this article linked from Insty. My problem is synovium tissue, not cartilage, but I thought some here might be interested.
    https://scitechdaily.com/anti-aging-injection-regrows-knee-cartilage-and-prevents-arthritis/

    Property rights: many moons(and years) ago, I went to one son’s high school graduation. The valedictorian speech included a spiel about the evils of property rights. That student was living in his own apartment, and I was tempted to suggest he remove the front door of his apartment since it was there to enforce his property rights on all his stuff in his apartment.
    Didn’t, because I figured it would fly in one ear and out the other without touching any brain cells encountered along the way.

    1. I like that idea. Good for meniscus?
      .
      On a separate note, I got out of the hospital again yesterday after an ER admittance on Friday.
      Just got a call to come on back in as they cultured something that shouldn’t be there and hadn’t been there yesterday..
      “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in”

      1. Getting culture is good. Getting culture from a hospital is bad – the place where you WANT to be nekulturny :)

        1. The nurse just got done doing the blood draw for the new culture.
          She swabbed my arm and I asked why it wasn’t swabbed for the other culture.
          She asked where I got it, I said ER and she said, no wonder something turned up.
          Hmmmm…..

          1. after recently (~ 3weeks ago new) escaping from the hospital for “treatment” for 5 broken ribs (bad fall and it’s turning out to be a colder winter) which consisted of “bed rest” (YGBKM), I will not discuss DEI: I will not, I WILL NOT…
            YGBKM is Ya Gotta Be kiddin’ Me for those who are unfamiliar

          2. many moons ago, higher than I like to count, I was trained how to fall/land (all on my own account: parachute and judo)
            I was waiting in the parking lot to enter a physical therapy place, saw another old codger around my age wearing a similar t-shirt, and exited the car to talk to him, keeping my hand on the hood for stabilzation (as opposed to using my walker). We were talking and my legs just went out from under me.
            I felt myself falling and did all the proper things I’d learned.
            It took three weeks before all the discoloration finally disappeared from my left forearm and the muscles are just now no longer achy after hard use, but 80+ year old ribs (3-8) are not as elastic as they were in my 20/30s.
            The ER attendees couldn’t believe I hadn’t punctured a lung (though there was some fluid) and I hadn’t broken my left arm. BTW I can not remember a physician/orthopod poking his/her nose in during my entire stay.
            I now use the walker to go from bed to bathroom (in the middle of the night 3-4x): frightened, no; smarter, perhaps?

          3. There you go…a root cause. They need to compensate for dragging you out of Home Depot DIY nirvana.
            Seriously though, hope it’s ‘nothing’.

  12. An observation: Per GasBuddy Heat Map, regular gas @ Murphy’s in Arlington, TX is $2.03.

    I wonder if there is a difference (if any) between the military stuff the Chicoms sell vs. what they make for themselves.

      1. Time for me to update my target-spotting on B-17, Dixie Valley, and down towards Gabbs. See if anything new shows up…

  13. >It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party
    Fair enough. But is that Cea Weaver person an actual woman? Sure, “they” have been dressed as a woman in recent photos. But some of “their” older photos look like a dude.

    > I suspect that Mike_C’s crystal ball is neither broken nor cloudy. I hope that he’s wrong
    I also hope that I’m wrong.

    1. Me too…do not want this protracted by the MIC who can’t wait to make this a PDJT black eye by getting their mitts on things and making a mess of it while fleecing taxpayers in the process. Pretty sure PDJT and SecDef Hegseth do not want that either and have defined a careful plan to keep the warmongers at bay.

  14. There’s a lot going on here, not least clairvoyance. I predict, with Sybilline accuracy, several smash hit literary works in your 2026 timeline. Perhaps most especially Cipher.

    Me? I might attempt an alt history dystopian Sci-Fi where New York’s run by Islamo-Marxists and the US is engaged in a forever war in the Amazon basin. But maybe that’s pessimistic, a Jeremiad. Maybe SOAR liberates the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, while ICE takes out traitrous malfeasants in the homeland. The Anglosphere then reclaims its own with renewed confidence and spirit.

    More anon.

  15. The analysis of the Chinese junk indicates a thorough knowledge of Venezuelan EOB. Well done, sir. In a previous life, I supported some instrument packages on flights out of Curaçao.

Comments are closed.

Scroll to top