Submitted for Your Approval

Captioned Photo: It’s just lunch.

 

Bullet Points:

** Wall Street Journal: “American defense companies have increased their dominance of the global arms trade, buoyed by European nations snapping up U.S. jet fighters and missiles. According to new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank, the U.S. has accounted for 43% of global weapons exports over the past five years, up from 35% in the previous five-year period. The Sipri data show how the U.S. arms industry has been the key beneficiary of rising European defense budgets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as President Trump pushes the region to increase military spending.”

** Slow is smooth. Smooth is fast.

** Syria is now controlled by an Islamic terrorist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS is an offshoot of Al-Qaida. Some time back, HTS announced that it was no longer affiliated with AQ. That was a public relations stunt. It changed nothing. Their policies remained the same. HTS’s leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the de facto ruler of Syria, now appears before the cameras for press events wearing a suit rather than Islamic garb. That too is a public relations move for Western audiences. He is a jihadist who fought American forces in Iraq, and is well known to the USGOV people he worked with in the old days.

** (h/t Claudio) Mar 7, 2025 (Bloomberg)—A senior official said that Philippine authorities have uncovered a network of hundreds of alleged Chinese spies. This is a much more extensive operation than previously disclosed, adding to tensions between the countries. The suspected Chinese nationals operating in Southeast Asian nations are believed to be engaged in espionage activities, including cybercrimes, according to an official at the National Bureau of Investigation, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the ongoing operation. The bureau captured at least eight suspects earlier this year in the first arrests associated with the campaign and is set to apprehend eight more suspects later this month.

** She has skills.

** After almost 16 months of fighting, Hamas has been degraded to an insurgency. The Israeli military estimates that it has eliminated 17,000 to 20,000 foot soldiers in the war thus far. Much of the senior leadership is dead, including political chief Ismail Haniyeh; military chief Mohammed Deif; his deputy, Marwan Issa; and above all, Gaza head and Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar. Less known but arguably as important, Israeli military operations also decimated Hamas’s mid-level leadership: Eight brigade commanders, 30 battalion commanders, and 165 company or platoon commanders have been killed. Without these operational and tactical leaders, Hamas would be hard-pressed to conduct another large-scale coordinated assault like Oct. 7. Israel, however, has yet to shatter Hamas as an organization. I think that they need to double down and finish it.

** Thanks for the Memories – h/t Claudio – The Nigerian Gambit – March 12, 2025: Africa is the scene of furious combat in Nigeria as well as in Eastern Congo that has left over 7,000 people dead. M23 rebels have captured the provincial capitals of Goma and Bukavu. This threatens the valuable mining operations there. This is a significant source of income for the government. Rare earth and minerals are essential for industrialized countries. China has brought in its security forces. This is forbidden by Congolese law, but is allowed to happen to keep the mineral exports and foreign income going.

Further south Nigeria continues suffering multiple economic, political, and security disasters. Inflation is at historically high levels. New president Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023 and promptly implemented some of his promised changes. This backfired as inflation rose rapidly, causing many Nigerians to suffer from hunger and under-employment. Inflation has rendered the national currency, the naira, nearly worthless. In central Benue State students rioted and burned buildings to protest the deaths of three security guards.

Tinubu’s defenders claim that the president inherited all these problems, but his solutions have not worked after a year, and Nigeria and the economy are in crisis mode. Despite considerable oil resources, foreign companies have left. These firms long supplied the resources and management to keep the oil production going. The foreign firms cite a hostile atmosphere that makes continued operations in Nigeria impractical. The departing foreign companies cite the government’s inability or unwillingness to deal with increasing theft, destruction, or plundering of company property. The departing firms see the situation as hopeless and are abandoning once profitable operations. The Nigerian government does not appear able to solve these problems and foreign firms do not believe the new government will succeed in dealing with the crisis. [more]

 

Meme (h/t Frank)

 

How is Canada Doing?

 

Jihadi History

In 1571, the forces of Ottoman Sultan Selim II besieged the city of Famagusta on the island of Cyprus. It was the last major stronghold in the hands of the Venetians, who controlled Cyprus at that point. After a year-long siege, the Venetian forces agreed to surrender the city. The Ottoman commander Lala Mustafa Pasha promised to grant safe passage to its defenders.

That agreement lasted just long enough to let the Ottomans inside. Then they slaughtered everyone in the city except the commander, Marcantonio Bragadin. For him, they reserved a particularly grizzly fate. They cut off his ears and his nose and toyed with him for two weeks, making him carry bags of earth around the city walls while the Ottoman troops jeered and taunted him. Then they skinned him alive and stuffed his skin with straw. That horrific scarecrow was hoisted to the yard arm of an Ottoman ship, which then sailed to Constantinople to deliver the trophy to the Sultan.

The world may have changed for many of us since then. It has not changed for jihadists. When you are waging Holy War there are no innocents. No quarter is given. Jihadists do not want coexistence. They do not wish to have a homeland in which they can live peacefully. You can convert to Islam, or you can be annihilated.

 

 

Why isn’t Europe in the Driver’s Seat?

 

Trains

A freight train can carry as many goods as five hundred trucks. Unfortunately, they have to sit in rail yards for days or weeks before unloading. And then only if some gangster crew doesn’t come in and pry open the doors and steal whatever they can carry. Then they have to get reloaded onto trucks to be moved to the distribution centers where they are again unloaded and reloaded into local trucks for delivery.

 

 

Let’s Talk Debt

During Joe Biden’s four years as president, I saw and heard this claim repeated more times than I can remember: “Donald Trump racked up more debt than any president in history.” If any of you should see or hear that comment again, you can confidently reply that no, Joe Biden has since racked up more.

1. National debt at Obama’s inauguration: $10.627 trillion

National debt at Trump’s first inauguration: $19.947 trillion

=Increase in debt (Obama): $9.32 trillion

2. National debt at Trump’s first inauguration: $19.947 trillion

National debt at Biden’s inauguration: $27.752 trillion

=Increase in debt (Trump): $7.805 trillion

3. National debt at Biden’s inauguration: $27.752 trillion

National debt at Trump’s second inauguration: $36.218 trillion

=Increase in debt (Biden): $8.466 trillion

(Source: U.S. Treasury Department)

We’ll review a few nuances with Trump and Biden debt criticisms in a moment.

First of all, it’s clear that the Treasury racked up more debt under Barack Obama’s administration than either Trump or Biden. But it’s also apparent that Obama served two terms, so it’s unfair to accuse him of “racking up more debt than any other president,” at least in nominal terms. We’re comparing two presidents who served one term each, with Trump just starting his second, non-consecutive term in January.

Simply comparing Trump’s first term and Biden’s, it’s pretty clear that on a nominal basis Biden increased the debt by $8.466 trillion vs. Trump’s $7.805 trillion. So there goes the unadorned accusation that “Trump racked up the most.”

DEBT, INFLATION, AND PANDEMIC

Now here’s where the nuance comes into play.

When adjusted for inflation, Biden’s increase in debt becomes slightly smaller in real terms than Trump’s, about 3% less. Trump’s typically deranged critics don’t address any nuance whatsoever when they throw out bombs like “Trump racked up more debt than any president in history.” So it will be hard for them to complain when you throw a bomb back that says, “No, Biden racked up more than Trump: $8.5 trillion vs $7.8 trillion.”

Now if we, or any Trump critic, decide to stop throwing bombs, be more analytical and start digging into additional factors like inflation, then sure, Biden’s expansion of government debt is 3% smaller when calculating in inflation-adjusted terms. But nuance also demands that we examine other specific circumstances surrounding the two presidents’ fiscal performances, not just pick and choose the most convenient one. After all, we don’t conduct ourselves like CNN reporters.

As we all know, most of Trump’s debt was accumulated during the Covid pandemic in his last year, or more accurately, state governments locking down the nation’s economy. With the U.S. economy forcibly placed in a coma, unemployment shot up to 14%, tax revenues dried up, unemployment claims ballooned, and the Trump administration also moved to direct immediate relief funds to American citizens and businesses thrown out of work due to government lockdowns.

Back when that “immediate” relief was delayed by Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic House of Representatives who held the CARES package hostage, demanding (and ultimately getting) hundreds of billions of borrowed dollars in pork added on for targeted constituencies, diversity programs, and near-bankrupt state and local governments.

The Pelosi House also held up another CARES package, demanding hundreds of billions more in pork right before Trump departed the White House.

Joe Biden, by contrast, had no public health or fiscal crisis to deal with. When he took office, the Covid vaccine was already being dispensed and the economy, free from state lockdowns, was rapidly recovering. The unemployment rate had already fallen by 8.4 percentage points during Trump’s last eight months in office, the fastest decline in history. And rebounding GDP growth in Trump’s last three quarters rose at annualized rates of +35.2%, +4.4%, and 5.64% respectively.

Yet, without any of the massive headwinds that Donald Trump faced, the Biden administration still managed to rack up even more debt nominally, and nearly as much in real terms.

DEBT, REAL GDP, AND OBAMA

The contrast is even more apparent if we compare the first three years of each president’s term, excluding 2020, the unusual crisis year.

1. National debt at Trump’s first inauguration: $19.947 trillion

National debt after three years: $23.210 trillion

=Increase in debt (Trump): $3.26 trillion

2. National debt at Biden’s inauguration: $27.752 trillion

National debt after three years: $34.077 trillion

=Increase in debt (Biden): $6.325 trillion

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

Excluding Trump’s final year in office, when Covid was raging across the globe and state governments placed the U.S. economy in a coma, Trump racked up far less debt than Biden—measured both nominally and inflation-adjusted. If we use the most essential metric to economists—debt as a % of GDP—and adjust it for inflation (debt as a % of real GDP), we see real national debt under Trump rose much more slowly during his first three years.

1. National debt as % of real GDP at Trump’s inauguration: 102.31%

National debt as % of real GDP after three years: 112.23%

=Change (Trump): +9.92 percentage points

2. National debt as % of real GDP at Biden’s inauguration: 133.38%

National debt as % of real GDP after three years: 150.03%

=Change (Biden): +16.65 percentage points

(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve)

Incidentally, even if we account for Obama’s two terms he increased the national debt as a share of real GDP nearly as fast as Biden.

3. National debt as % of real GDP at Obama’s inauguration: 68.27%

National debt as % of real GDP at Trump’s inauguration: 102.31%

=Change (Obama): +34.04 percentage points

(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve)

Unlike Biden though, Obama had a legitimate excuse. He came into power right at the tail end of the Great Financial Crisis and had a significant recession hangover, high unemployment and lower tax revenues to deal with.

However, Obama also chose to make matters worse—a lot worse—with massive Keynesian economic stimulus policies. He borrowed trillions of dollars to spend on politically connected “stimulus” believing that government spending would accelerate economic recovery.

Did it? In the end, the 2008-2016 period was the slowest GDP recovery, by far, after any financial crisis in American history (all seventeen of them). It was also the second slowest return to full employment after an economic crisis, and only three months faster than the Great Depression’s return from 1933 to 1941.

Obama shares some blame for pushing the national debt as a % of real GDP up faster than any peacetime president in history. Yes, faster than Ronald Reagan whose increase was only 15.11 percentage points in eight years compared to Obama’s 34.04 (St. Louis Federal Reserve).

So yes, the few TDS-afflicted who pivot to “nuance” to exonerate Biden’s massive debt pileup will discover that it works both ways.

And the next time you hear someone say…

“Trump racked up more debt than any president ever,”

…you can tell them…

“Nope, Biden racked up $8.5 trillion in four years compared to Trump’s $7.8 trillion. And Biden didn’t have a worldwide pandemic, an economy locked down by state governments, and tons of pork added to rescue packages held hostage by Nancy Pelosi.”

 

 

Identify the Aircraft

1

 

2

Not a Phantom

 

3

 

4

Despite its deceptively cuddly appearance, this was a dangerous and unforgiving aircraft, difficult to control both in the air and on water. It was a miserable combat aircraft, plagued by poor handling and serious design flaws. Recommended initially for scrapping in 1939, it was nonetheless pressed into service due to a lack of alternatives. Of the 21 built, 11 were lost—10 in accidents and one mysteriously vanished. Its most significant issues were its lack of power and chronic instability. It could not be flown hands-off, a critical flaw for a long-range patrol aircraft, nor could it maintain altitude on a single engine, making it highly unreliable in combat conditions.

 

End