Caption: I love the Convair B-58 Hustler
The Resilience of US Treasuries: Why Strong Performance Defies Expectations
If you have a mortgage, a 401(k), or even a basic savings account, what happens in the US Treasury market, the securitized debt of our Federal Government, affects you. Treasury yields help set the cost of home loans, shape corporate borrowing, and influence retirement portfolios. When Treasuries behave oddly, it is not just a Wall Street curiosity; it is about your own financial world.
Recently, US Treasury bonds have created exactly that kind of puzzle. Despite three usually toxic forces, large fiscal deficits, political turmoil, and open pressure on Federal Reserve independence, Treasuries have been among the best-performing government bonds in the developed world. Yields, the interest rate investors earn, have fallen, and prices have risen more than in Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, or Australia. Textbook logic says weaker fundamentals should mean higher yields, not lower ones.
A household analogy makes this clearer. If someone kept piling up credit card debt while their income stayed shaky, lenders would typically charge more, not less. The United States is doing something similar with federal borrowing, yet global lenders are accepting lower rates, in effect paying a premium to lend Washington money.
The numbers show how sharp the disconnect has become. The US budget deficit is running above 7 percent of GDP, higher than in many emerging markets, and total federal debt has passed $ 36 trillion. Yet from late 2024 to November 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from about 4.7 percent to roughly 4.0 to 4.2 percent, while German yields rose and Japanese yields barely moved.
Investors are paying more for the privilege of lending to a government that is borrowing at levels usually seen in deep crises. That is the paradox at the heart of the Treasury market. This counterintuitive strength rests on two main forces: robust safety-driven demand and the Treasury Department’s tactical choices about how it issues debt.
On the demand side, persistent global anxiety does most of the work. US Treasuries remain the world’s default haven, the place nervous investors park money when they are afraid. When markets worry about a European recession, an Asian banking problem, or a geopolitical shock, investors sell riskier assets and buy Treasuries. This flight to safety pulls in global capital, raising prices and pushing yields down. The more chaotic the world becomes, even when the trouble starts in the United States, the stronger the demand for US debt tends to be.
History backs this up. In 2011, when Congress flirted with default and Standard & Poor’s downgraded America’s AAA rating, investors did not abandon Treasuries; they rushed into them, and the 10-year yield dropped from about 3 percent to under 2 percent in a matter of weeks. During the March 2020 COVID panic, as the US shut major parts of its economy, Treasury yields plunged again while investors from Tokyo to Zurich scrambled to buy more American debt.
Time after time, the worse the headlines look, the more the world wants Uncle Sam’s IOU. Big, steady buyers reinforce this safety demand. Foreign central banks hold and rebuild dollar reserves, and pension funds and insurance companies need long-term, very safe assets to match the benefits and policies they must pay for over the long term. For them, Treasuries are core holdings, not a short-term trade. On the supply side, the Treasury Department has adjusted its borrowing practices.
Instead of pushing large amounts of very long-term bonds into a nervous market, it has shifted toward more short-term debt. Before 2022, a substantial share of new borrowing came in twenty and thirty-year bonds. Since 2023, the Treasury has relied far more on one to twelve-month Treasury bills, and the share of total federal debt maturing within a year has risen from roughly 15 percent to more than 25 percent. In plain terms, rather than asking investors to lock up money for decades during a period of uncertain inflation and interest rates, the Treasury has said, “Lend to us for a few months and we will roll it over later.” Investors prefer that deal. They are more comfortable lending short-term, and that willingness has helped keep long-term yields lower than many expected.
There is a cost to this strategy. More short-term borrowing means the government must refinance more often and will feel future rate increases faster. In the near term, however, this change in the mix of debt has helped prevent a sharp jump in long-term interest rates. Looking ahead, the forces supporting Treasuries appear durable, though not guaranteed.
Safe-haven demand is built into the current global system as long as the dollar remains the main reserve currency and US political and military power remains the ultimate backstop. As long as investors treat “risk off” as “buy dollars and Treasuries,” fear will support US debt. The Treasury’s flexible approach to issuance, adjusting the balance of short and long-term debt to match market appetite, is also likely to continue. Officials have every reason to keep borrowing costs manageable and avoid flooding markets with more long-term bonds than investors want.
The result is striking. The US Treasury market can continue to perform well, with relatively low yields and high prices, even while headline fiscal numbers look troubling. Strong safety-driven demand, combined with careful supply management, can outweigh textbook worries about deficits for extended periods. For ordinary savers and borrowers, that means global fears and Treasury tactics may keep mortgage rates, car loan rates, and bond fund yields lower than the scary debt charts alone would suggest. In a world that never runs out of things to fear, America’s debt has become the asset people reach for when they are most afraid, and the Treasury has learned how to package and sell exactly what a nervous world wants to buy.
Nuclear Power Generation
(Fox News) Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office will direct the largest share of its resources toward building and restarting nuclear power plants.
Although the article frames this move as a reflection of Trump-era priorities, the reality is broader and more structural. The LPO now controls hundreds of billions of dollars in lending authority, and the demand for reliable baseload power, particularly driven by the explosive growth of AI and data-center electricity use, has pushed nuclear energy back into the center of U.S. industrial strategy.
Reuters notes that the office intends to support “first plants,” both entirely new reactors and revivals of mothballed projects, as part of a long-term push to stabilize the grid, expand domestic energy capacity, and reduce reliance on intermittent sources. While the political angle receives attention, the deeper story is that nuclear power is becoming a bipartisan necessity rather than a partisan symbol.
At the same time, this direction comes with real trade-offs. Nuclear projects are historically prone to cost overruns, regulatory bottlenecks, and decade-long timelines, and the article does not fully explore how these risks will be managed or how nuclear lending compares with support for other clean-energy technologies. This shift marks a meaningful inflection point: a recognition that the United States cannot meet its future energy needs without large-scale, firm, zero-carbon generation.
What do you add to Pinto Beans?
Green chili? Bacon? Onions? Or are you a purist? Do you fry them twice?
The more you toot, the better you feel! Let’s have beans at every meal!!
Poke-a-haunt-us
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is attempting to stop the reported selloff of the $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio to private companies, demanding that Education Secretary Linda McMahon and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent quit their reported talks of a potential sale. I’m sure that they’ll stop what they’re doing to listen to Pocahontas Warren.
But of course she would. She wants it all in the hands of the government so they can use taxpayer money to buy votes from those who don’t want to pay back their loans. Not only do I say that selling off these loans should be done, but the government also needs to stop backing student loans. Education loans should be like any other loan. It is a risk-versus-reward issue between banks or other private lenders and the borrower. USGOV should not be the “lender”. There is a conflict of interest, to say the least, and all the risk is put on the taxpayer.
Education lending has allowed university tuition inflation to run amok. Could there be some accommodation for specific STEM categories that involve the nation’s needs? Yes, I think so, but those must be carefully thought out. Perhaps scholarships rather than loans would be involved.
In the Worker’s Paradise
Helen Gao on China:
“Behind the orderliness of everyday life, a quiet desperation simmers. On social media and in private conversations, there is a common refrain: worry over joblessness, wage cuts, and making ends meet…
Internationally, China looks strong… That muscular facade is punctured here in China, where despair about dimming economic and personal prospects is pervasive. This contrast between a confident state and its weary population is captured in a phrase Chinese people are using to describe their country: “wai qiang, zhong gan,” roughly translated as “outwardly strong, inwardly brittle.”
Many now feel the very state policies that have made China appear strong overseas are hurting them. They see a government more concerned with building global influence and dominating export markets than in addressing the challenges of their households… These days, there is a sense of bitter anger among the people at being the voiceless victims of the state’s obsession with world power and beating the United States… The government recently began cracking down on social media content it considered “excessively pessimistic” — a clear sign it is concerned about this public unease undercutting its agenda.”
Bullet Points:
** Car sales with WSF.
** More on cars from WSF.
** You need another credit card!
** Cuba Libre? (The Telegraph) “Trump has already concentrated about 10 per cent of the entire US Navy in the Caribbean, including guided missile destroyers, a nuclear-powered attack submarine, and two amphibious assault ships. This formidable force has just been strengthened by the arrival of the USS Gerald R Ford, the world’s biggest aircraft carrier, having steamed westwards across the Atlantic at the head of a naval strike group. The primary target of this military build-up – America’s biggest deployment in the Caribbean since an intervention in Panama in 1989 – is Venezuela’s far-Left and bitterly anti-US regime under Nicolas Maduro, the authoritarian successor to the late Hugo Chavez. But that is not the whole story. Experts believe that Trump, and especially Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, may see regime change in Caracas as a necessary prelude for what they want most of all, which is regime change in Havana and the final “liberation” of Cuba.”
** How cold is it?
** Yes, DRJIM returns – – –
** Showing off – With EdB!
Identify the Submarine (by class)
1
I doubt you’ll need a hint, but there is a flag flying from the conning tower.
Maybe half a dozen remain in active service.
2
Two graphics – 8 completed
3
Half a dozen remain in service. One lost.
4
Two graphics, I don’t know how I could give you a bigger hint.
Two remain in service. They still have reactor problems.
Parting Shot
End
(1) Soviet Delta IV class SSBN.
(2) Russian Borei class SSBN.
(3) Soviet Oscar II class SSGN.
(4) Soviet Akula-class SSN. Should list the name, but figuring out Cyrillic is not my thing.
– Kle.
Excellent
1 – Rssian Delta IV-class ballistic missile submarine
2 – Russian K-550 Alexander Nevsky Borei-class ballistic missile submarine
3 – Russian Oscar II-class Tomsk
4 – Russian Akula-class Kuzbass attack submarine
Outstanding
Convair B-58; Did / are other aircraft outfitted with Stanley or similar ejection pods? 60k or what altitude for insertion jumps common for S.F. teams from other aircraft?
I’m not aware of their use. The problem with pods for covert insertion is that they provide evidence of a team on the ground.
Nuke Power; Will the Demented Party tell it’s children ( the Karen screamers) atomic energy is safe now? I can’t think of any worse bottleneck than the ping pong players in congress. Not even regulatory agencies can rival such inefficiency. What will the MSM spin be, pro or con?
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I’ve noticed that the gen’s x,y,z or whatever the proper age group are called, hardly turn on a radio. Newspapers are minimal influence. What voices of ” Common Sense” are the most influential?
–
Heard the other day Elon was not happy that Sam Altman wouldn’t sell his “open” A.I. Will Heinleins Grock be the biggest influence for changes in point of view, or “votes” if University students turn off the liberal proff’s programing?
Another source says, ” A.I. could become “the voice of God in everyone’s ear” ( my paraphrase) in 5-7 yrs. Apps will be antiquated.
Even if that is true about AI, it won’t change my
life any. I don’t use apps, either.
– Kle.
It’s not so much the influence on the older group as it is on the rising generation and the impact on them will be profound.
I find the use of an interactive “suite” of apps, like Office more appealing than some amorphous AI blob.
.
AI just saved my son a bunch of money on health insurance by making a suggestion after he asked a question regarding a legal issue concerning said insurance.
Just got off the phone with him about it. The AI suggested a workaround without him asking.
**in 5-7 yrs. Apps will be antiquated**
That would not surprise me…
Beans; not a fan of sitting down for just a bowl, like soup. Abuela’s south of the border, just use manteca in the refries. That’s my preferred cup a/o tea. “Window pane” opaque tortillas to accompany. My home brew is bacon grease or our rendered beef tallow. Mrs W’s health regulation enforcement has increased the use of the latter. Budget concerns has made the no nitrate bacon less frequent.
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I’m hoping to eventually be able to aquire an old fridge for curing pork hunted in the Texas heat. Goal; Herding a sounder of the younger, smaller hogs into our freezer. Just for the distinct flavor. Now, chunks of smoked ham, in a pot of navy beans? …that was my mother in law’s go to / stand by for any family gathering.
I do love navy beans and smoked ham…Along with fresh hot biscuits.
I’ve never made “pinto” beans like you have in the picture.
It’s time to become adventurous. You can roll them in a fresh, hot flour tortilla and a generous mound of cheese.
Identify the Submarine (by class):
1. Delta IV-class SSBN
2. Borei-class SSBN
3. Oscar-class SSGN
4. Akula-class SSN
Excellent!
Beans – Green chili? Bacon? Onions? Oh Hell Yeah – All 3 and then some hot sauce right ahead of consumption!
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Student Loans – Another socialist scam – I once hired a young lady about that was attending community college. I learned from her that she was living off of student loans. I did not know that the loan would not only pay for class fees and books but also money for food and housing. She was getting the maximum allowed each quarter. She had no intentions of ever getting any degree. She had to meet some minimum requirement of attendance but then would drop the class right before she was going to be listed as failed and was then allowed to sign up again next semester and continue the scam. She had no concern that she wold never be able to pay the loans off and that they wold never go away, Last time I saw her she was being led away from y business in handcuffs. That’s a story for another time.
The worst case I’m aware of is the brother of a close friend. He suffered significant brain injuries from a motorcycle accident. When last discussed, he had over $600K in student loans that he lived on. You wouldn’t hire him to pour sand out of a boot, but SALLY MAE is funding his art degrees. I think he finger paints. Somebody in authority in the school and in government needs to be horse-whipped – and not the gentle kind. The guy is sold a bill of goods that he can never pay back. The taxpayers fund the default. The school rakes in the money for overpriced, worthless tuition, and the government man makes money for underwriting loans.
X2…both comments.
An advanced form of socialism.
X3
Don’t know who the “cautious optimism” on FB you are quoting actually is, but I don’t recall Congress ever flirting with a default on our debt, 2011 or any other time. I am also young enough to remember when textbooks also thought allowing City of London banks to set our interest rates via LIBOR was a good thing. SOFR ended that. Those books never had going negative on IR (Europe) or mandatory pension plan purchases of government debt (Germany) but other than that a standard refrain. Not mentioned while Yellen was at treasury and selling short term debt rather than long term while ever other nation was at the zero bound because that’s what all the people in SF thought was a grand idea.
Warren is not upset about the student loan sale per se, she’s upset at the loss of enslavement of debtors as once that portfolio is in private hands loans can be defaulted on in bankruptcy. I’m sure she’s also upset over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being taken out of receivership (thanks Obama!) because that would put mortgage markets back into private hands and what government control socialist ever wants a market based mortgage market and the positive impact on housing in the US that will have when Uncle Obama gets out of the way.
Connecting a lot the dots this morning…debt being the major one that is sold by those working hand in hand with government grifters who enjoy the soft enslavement of WTP in order to increase their personal wealth, thus establish them as “The Elites”. Saw this in operation more times over my life…and it never reduces, only increases. Credit cards, student loan scam, car loans, mortgages, markets,…the whole of what people consider everyday expenses, which has increased to an untenable level since the 70’s when $23k could buy an acre and 2200 sq ft house big enough to raise a family, and state college tuition was $700 a semester.
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When WTP are considered the gerbils on the wheel by a certain faction (now including the world of academia), reversing the trend is next to impossible. Try building a modest home at the current asinine $400/sqft, an insane amount for builders-grade with decent appliances…except government mandated useless eco-friendly ones, especially washers. That build number should be $200/sqft. Insane…and the Covid PsyOp ushered those prices in, which will never go down to a rational level. Could, I suppose, with tariffs and the abolishment of taxing every dollar we earn of hold multiple times, including their confiscated SSA…but ‘hope is not a strategy”, especially when you have Senators demanding WTP stay as their slaves. Go over to Kim DuToit’s place, similar sentiment on the FOP trying to block a reciprocity bill for WTP’s ability to conceal carry across (imaginary) state lines. The FOP trots out their standard line, it “jeopardizes qualified immunity.” Baloney. If LEO’s are the only one carrying firearms…that is a police state. But like everything, this creepage never reduces, only advances at the hands of those who believe we work for them.
(Rant over…sorry, struck a chord)
Constitutional Carry; from the horse’s lying lips, Uncle Barry promised, ” you can keep your doctor!” He outright said said, ” We’re not outlawing coal, we’re just going to regulate it out of business.” Answer to the 2A…? ” You can keep your guns, Noone said we’re going to take your guns.” That is, as long as you keep them locked in your safe and have them ALL registered.” Like the poor kids on Germany that maybe going to be signing up for military service, a.i. lottery? Every aspect of their lives from birth till 10 seconds ago determines who is drafted and to do what.
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Reciprocity will be my next word search and add to my definitions folder after work today…h/t Paul. X2 on calling BS on the 1984 thought speak, ” jeopardizes qualified immunity.” The 2A was established to preserve the 1A. Self defense is an inailiable (sp) right.
+1
Gents,
Peruse this site. Click on your individual state. Get your CCW!
https://www.handgunlaw.us
I’m going to back what Fredrick is saying about Treasuries. The reason US Treasuries are doing well is mostly that other countries are considered at higher risk of default. The yield isn’t their concern so much has having a safe storage location for their money. Not getting as much interest still beats the crap out of not getting your principal back.
Mom made the best bean soup as a kid…a little potato, ham, celery, and chicken stock. Soaked the beans overnight then cooked it all day long. The best with a slice of good bread slathered with butter (or Wonderbread for us kids, soft bread was somehow better).
My grandma made soup very much like that, which she called Portuguese Beans. Yes, it was terrific.
Concur vehemently. The US suffers less during global economic collapses
than most of the rest of the world, because we are largely self-sufficient,
and the dollar remains a good bet because we are on the Plutonium Standard.
So when times of doom and gloom are looming (as they are) the US looks good
for these purposes.
– Kle.
X2
** Nuclear projects are historically prone to cost overruns,**
If you know anyone who works building new reactors ask them about sabotage in the building process so they are paid extra to fix it. The stories bothered me..
**Education lending has allowed university tuition inflation to run amok**
Education lending and the fact that “student loans” cannot be discharged in a bankruptcy are a HUGE part of the American Educational Industry.
+1
That all has to end. If universities are confident in their production, let them make loans with their billions in slush funds.
**for what they want most of all, which is regime change in Havana and the final “liberation” of Cuba.”**
Cuba? I can see the want but this as a present goal never crossed my mind.
Proverbs 22:7 (KJV) “The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.” Some versions substitute “slave” for servant.
+1
“They see a government more concerned with building global influence and dominating export markets than in addressing the challenges of their households…”
There are some saying this about our administration. Not me.
there are even some that say we have (recently have had/will have had viz. NYC?) a rather sizeable portion of government that acts adversely to the best interests of WTP
** Nuclear Power Generation
If you wouldn’t mind
gubbmint (greenie Luddites) probs aside, which entities in the energy sector would be interested in the expenditure of time, personnel (security, development, and regulatory), land acquisition for a possibly minimal return. Coastal structures are a problem; just land acquistion (not to mention the damage done to the environment by warming the Atlantic/Pacific sarc),
Offshore structures present others.
Pinto Beans
Soak overnight two pounds of washed beans. In a pressure cooker, add beans, two chopped onions, two chopped garlic cloves, chicken bullion, tablespoon of salt, and one pound of pork stew meat. Cook one hour. What is not immediately consumed can be frozen in one pint containers.
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Selling cars with WSF
“People come to a car lot to buy a car. Let them!!!” That outlook filled my bank account for many years. If you survive, let alone prosper, you learn two principals. First, you have two customer you need to sell, Mr and Mrs Victim, er Prospect and whatever lender is foolish enough to loan money to these mutts. Second, you have “need” buyers and “want” buyers. The first build your numbers toward the monthly bonus, the second build your gross profit numbers.
Realizing these remarks will offend some, consider this. Your opinion may be important, but not to me.
My brother was walking the dog by a car lot he and I have frequented for cars.
Always a value, never a regret.
My brother realizes he hasn’t seen the guy in a while, stops in to say Hi, walks out with a BMW he didn’t know he wanted.
And he still loves it.
One born every minute, WSF
Or as my dealership friends always said: “There’s an ass for every seat”…..
B-58 Hustler–why did they nix this bird?
High operational costs and vulnerability to new Soviet surface-to-air missiles.
Or so I’m told.
I still think it’s the coolest thing with wings.
It is….
I take it jumps stay under 10k ft. The newer aircraft, fighters, bombers equipped with these pods for emergency ejection? Just never heard of them till looking up the B-58. 27 out of 116 crafts lost in flight, is that a high percentage in comparison to Osprey or other craft? De aquerdo on the coolness. 1400 mph / M-2, external payload or fuel. Not stealth or maneuverable like newer fighters, but for its day… ;). Are there any on display?
The B-58 is my all time favorite jet bomber. Incredible airplane, and it really pushed what was possible for it’s time.
.
Don’t ask me for investment advice. I’ll just sell you some stock before I short it….
.
Pinto Beans must have a ham hock in the pot! I flown on/seen a Delta IV, the Oscar Kursk (obviously before she sank), and a couple of Akulas over the years.
The B-58 was one of the most visually impressive bombers. When I was at Little Rock AFB 50 years ago they still had the hulk of one as a fire fighting training aid. Also one of the ejection capsules was still at the life support training building. I met a guy that had been a maintainer on B-58s. His descriptions of what they had to do to work on them made them maintenance nightmares. If a panel had to be taken off for work, any disturbance to the position of the airframe resulted in hours of work to get a skin panel back on.
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Beans, beans, the musical fruit….. A good pot of pintos slow cooked with onion, ham or ham bone (with meat on it), bay leaf, a small can of green chiles and a coup!e of dried chiles is a meal fit for a king. Serve it with some cornbread for a real feast. I also love me some navy beans with ham.
What do you add to Pinto Beans? – Agreed. Slow cooked with ham hock, slice of onion and a clove of garlic. Served with hot corn bread and a couple slices of jalapeño. Yum.
“as long as the dollar remains the main reserve currency and US political and military power remains the ultimate backstop.”
Exactly.
Of course USD will be the world’s reserve currency until the end of time. Don’t say Rome.
X2
Pintos with either a chunk of ham bone with some ham leftover or just ham, chunked up. Not too much ham or my wife will complain about too much meat in the beans. Me? the perfect ratio is 4 units of beans and 1 unit of ham. Cooked long, till the water turns to thicker bean liquor.
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I don’t like other beans for just beans, though I like red and pink beans with some ham over rice. Or black beans over yellow rice.
Beans knows beans.