Israel/Iran War
(WSJ)Israel’s devastating attack on Iran has put the Islamic Republic in existential peril and exposed deep vulnerabilities in the intelligence services that have kept Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in power for nearly four decades.
Tehran fired dozens of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv Friday after Israeli warplanes carried out waves of strikes across Iran a day earlier, targeting the country’s nuclear facilities and killing several of its highest-ranking commanders and senior scientists. Israel’s attacks amounted to the most serious blow struck in a confrontation that erupted between the two longtime foes on Oct. 7, 2023.
Iran has so far been unable to respond in kind. Most of the missiles it fired at Tel Aviv were intercepted or caused minor damage. Now, Khamenei faces stark choices—and no good options. Iran’s bruising fight with Israel has left its military weakened. Further retaliation risks being insufficient to deter future attacks and prompting Israel to hit back harder.
Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea or other U.S. interests or personnel will likely draw an American response, something Khamenei has historically tried to avoid. Yielding to pressure and striking a nuclear deal with the U.S. that severely curbs Iran’s enrichment capability will be seen among Khamenei’s hard-line supporters, whom he has increasingly come to rely on, as an unacceptable capitulation. For decades, Khamenei was the architect behind Iran’s military and political expansion in the Middle East, using the Revolutionary Guard and its network of allied Shiite militias. He secured his rule at home by building fierce loyalty among those who supported him, and a pervasive surveillance state to suppress those who didn’t. Now, the octogenarian ruler who has led Iran since 1989 will likely spend the autumn of his life fighting—not to expand, but to salvage the Islamic Republic he helped build into a regional powerhouse. “If he is honest with himself, he will admit that he has lost. Everything he has worked for is crumbling before his eyes,” said Afshon Ostovar, associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif.
In a significant diplomatic shift, the Swiss Embassy in Tehran—which serves as the official channel for U.S.-Iran communication—has suspended its operations until further notice, citing the deteriorating security situation.
Early Exit
(Politico) KANANASKIS, Alberta — President Donald Trump abruptly announced that he would leave the G7 summit a day early and return to Washington shortly after posting an ominous social media message that appeared to suggest more carnage in Iran.
Press secretary Karoline Leavitt, in a post on X, said that “much was accomplished” during Trump’s meetings on Monday with other leaders at the summit in Canada. But, she continued, “because of what’s going on in the Middle East, President Trump will be leaving tonight after dinner with Heads of State.”
The change of plans only added to the sense of uncertainty around Israel’s ongoing military operation in Iran, which Trump seemed to warn was about to intensify in an ominous and somewhat cryptic social media post after a day of meeting with world leaders.
“Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign. What a shame, and a waste of human life,” Trump wrote in a TruthSocial post late Monday. “Simply stated, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. I said it over and over again!”
He closed it on an alarming note: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
The post came after a long day of meetings with world leaders at the G7 summit, where European officials suggested that the U.S. was holding up a joint statement calling for an end to the burgeoning conflict between Israel and Iran.
It’s unclear what triggered the startling message, which casually called for the evacuation of a city of 10 million people. This warning came just hours after Israel’s government issued its own evacuation order to citizens in northern Tehran, warning them of its expanding campaign.
Bullet Points:
** Appalachian life.
** There is no state of Azteca, no Reconquista, no La Raza, no “stolen land” – all of that is just agitprop fairytale bullshit fed to ignorant radicals by the American left. It’s another fake grievance for them to complain about dyeing their hair blue.
** Graveyard dead. ☠️
** “Let the lie come into the world… But not through me. The simple step of a courageous individual is not to take part in the lie.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
** Rafting in Australia with EdB.
** Are you eating for six? How do you self-identify?
** Visiting Iraq as I have recently on business, it’s somewhat unnerving to look across a short expanse of real estate and know that the vestige that once was Persia is just over there. The locals take it for granted. I was unable to do that because. Having the band-aid ripped off by Israel will make things easier going forward once Iran is in Rubble. It will reorder the Middle East. Syria (the Assads are gone and their influence from their new homes in Russia is gone with them), Lebanon (which was a Hezbollah-run state as an Iranian proxy), Gaza, and to a lesser extent, the West Bank (run by or influenced by Hamas) will revert to complete Israeli occupation. They won’t allow the maggots back in. The Shia Empire may remake itself, but it won’t be like the post-Shah theocracy that the world has had to deal with. They have the oil revenue to fix things if they want to. The odd reality is that nobody loves opulence and extravagance as much as the Persians do. Under their black tents, beautiful Persian women still wear expensive perfume, dress in silks, and covet luxury. Outwardly, it’s a black tent with eye-holes. Perhaps Iraqi Kurdistan will expand to fill the void in the Persian north? Maybe the insanity will end. Maybe.
**Take your restaurant recommendations from people who enjoy eating… Some people eat to live. Others live to eat. It’s that latter category that can be relied on. It’s like chocolate. It comes from a plant – it grows on a tree – and should be regarded as ‘salad.’
** The US Ambassador to Israel has an idea for the French. Create a Palestinian state within France, on French territory. I’m sure that EVERYONE would pitch in to relocate all of the Palestinians living in camps in Jordan, Egypt, and what’s left of Gaza. Greta could also move there and be outraged. The French could feed, clothe, and house them. I’m sure that the Palestinians would be appropriately grateful…
Identify the Aircraft
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4
Russia is believed to have six operational aircraft of this type remaining, according to Ukrainian military intelligence. They’re unable to build new models. I don’t know how many of the six are actually airworthy. Russia originally built 42.
Parting Shot
The rafting shown in Australia is at a gorge on the upper Tully River. To make it really interesting go down stream about 15 miles to the calm water and you will have 15 to 20 foot crocodiles.
Do the belching tourists in search of an authentic outback adventure go that far?
Do the crocs belch tourists?
Do crocs belch after a authentic imported meal? Like Asians do to after a good meal. Are they gormands able to catch the subtle flavor differences between nationalities? I would assume many Americans would have that ‘feeds a family of six’ label stitched in the clothes. A North Korean a choking hazard warning and a Mexican a cholesterol alert.
USGOV used to sponsor those studies and give the researchers tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars to provide answers of the sort you seek. Kick 10% to the Big Guy or buy one of Hunter Biden’s paintings and you’re in! Sadly, we’re now riding the Trump train and that sort of academic insight is beyond our grasp.
Good times..sigh.
Using We The People’s forced taxes no less.
unless you’re lindsey graham.
>>BREAKING NEWS<< U.S. sources are increasingly confident that a military strike on Iran is imminent. “Trump has made up his mind,” one insider said. “We’re very likely now committed to strike.” Another American source told Israeli i24 News: “It was a crazy night in Washington — everyone was working in the White House and the Pentagon. This may really be the Iranians’ last chance before the U.S. actively joins in.”
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Netanyahu is reportedly urging President Trump to bomb Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility. Fordow, an underground uranium enrichment site, would require massive U.S. bunker busters that Israel does not possess. Trump is said to view this military capability as key leverage to force Iran back to the negotiating table.
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President Trump responded directly to speculation by French President Emmanuel Macron, who claimed Trump left the G7 summit to mediate a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
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“Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a ‘cease fire’ between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!”
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The Houthis (Iranian Proxies) have reportedly attacked tankers in the Gulf. If true, it crosses the line set by the US and will bring us into the war.
After Trump left the G7 Summit, it was reported elsewhere that a radioactivity sniffing aircraft took off from Offutt AFB and was flying odd patterns over northern states.
NEST Teams are out. I don’t know what the findings are.
Identify the Aircraft:
1. Mitsubishi Ki-46 Dinah
2. Embraer C-390 Millennium
3. Boeing P-8A Poseidon
4. Beriev A-50 Mainstay
Outstanding!
#2 is one fine looking aircraft!
On the Brazilian aircraft, what is the device in front of the nose gear? Some kind of remote controlled tractor?
That’s what it looks like.
Boating: seen elsewhere that the most dangerous canoes were volcanoes.
😁
As a young man , during an extremely long weapons onload unrep and vertrep at sea , couple of days taking on weapons of all shapes and sizes , I think it was the battle load from the Lincoln we were relieving towards the end of Desert Storm . Hands were bleeding from the chain and wire rope slings , no gloves as per the NWP14D , you had to give them a whip up and jerk to pull the slings out , 3 out of 5 pulls you’d get the sling out in a smooth pull , the other two times the swage , (swedge ?) would get caught on the opposite side of the wire pallet , and your arms would get a shock as the sling stopped and showed you who was boss . At some point , someone busted out some chalk , and we started writing bullshit on the bombs , you know the talk “F Saddam” “Die Goatfkrz ” etc . I look back now and feel embarrassed and ashamed at making a joke out of the true business of war and think about those bombs , with my writing on them dropping and hitting targets and humans . I guess I am getting soft in my older years , or gained some wisdom . I don’t think it is funny or cool now.
So now… if the Commander in Chief and his wise counsel want to rain down hell on Iran , then that it shall be . It may be necessary and prudent to do so , and so it goes . Waaaay to early for a drink , got mowing to do before it rains , should be done by 1500 , but damned if I don’t feel like a bourbon and some Black Sabbath “War Pigs” followed by CCR “Fortunate Son” .
The Sun is over the yardarm somewhere on the planet.
Wasn’t Iran more (relatively speaking) of a regional powerhouse under the Shah, and khamenei has merely been trying to restore the standing his pre-dead-assesor (spit) destroyed? Damage control to the wrecking ball? And now he going to leave it worse than he found it, fitting.
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Pray for the Persian people.
The Shah fielded a modern military and ordered the four Dead Admiral class destroyers (which didn’t arrive before his fall). We kept them, and in their day, they were the most modern in OUR fleet.
The Shah had also ordered very modern satellite com gear and listening equipment from Harris in Brevard County. All of it was almost ready to ship when the Shah fell, leaving all that very modern and very proprietary and very secret equipment that was now not able to be sold or even taken apart. Said shipment almost bankrupted Harris.
Anyone here rafted the Gnu or the Upper Gulley?
if you mean the new or upper gauley in wva, yes. been a while tho. lots o fun.
Yep.
Aren’t Iranians the majority ethnic group living in Beverly Hills ? I think I read that somewhere .
I worked the counterterrorism detail in that area (among others) circa late 1980s. Most of them were pro-Shah. Bin Laden’s family lived there. A good friend of mine married (American Christian) into an Iranian Oil Mogul’s family. (many billions). There was a small minority who were Shiites. There is a larger story here that I’m not going to put on the blog. Still, there were Arafat (Force 17) Palestinians, Syrian Socialist National Party (both factions) most of whom sold used cars, Shiites, Wahhabists (Suni Al Queda), and so forth in that Beverly Hills, Brentwood, greater LA area. I worked with the Sheriffs (STAR), LAPD OCID, and various federal agencies, with the exception of the FBI, which handled its matters and looked with disdain on everyone else. My Navy CTF 168 days overlapped. CTF 168 followed CTF 157, which was abolished.
1) How is the Iran situation affecting Iraqi politics?
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2) Did Israel really lose 3 F35I’s?
Strain on U.S.-Iraq Relations:
I’ll take a stab at it. The U.S. has responded to the Iran-Israel conflict by withdrawing nonessential personnel from Iraq and authorizing the departure of military families from the region, signaling concerns about potential Iranian retaliation through Iraqi soil. This has intensified U.S. pressure on Sudani to curb Iran-backed militias, with warnings of airstrikes if Baghdad fails to act. At the same time, Iraq’s government is negotiating a phased U.S. troop withdrawal (set for September 2025 and completion by 2026), but the regional instability has led some Iraqi officials to consider delaying this due to fears of an Islamic State resurgence if a security vacuum emerges. This creates a political dilemma for Sudani, who must appease pro-Iran factions demanding a full U.S. exit while maintaining U.S. support to bolster his domestic legitimacy ahead of the November 2025 parliamentary elections. In summary, the Iran-Israel conflict is amplifying Iran’s influence over Iraqi militias and politics while straining Iraq’s relations with the U.S., threatening economic stability, and intensifying domestic political rivalries. Sudani’s government must carefully manage these pressures to avoid being dragged into a regional war or losing credibility ahead of the 2025 elections. The situation remains fluid, with Iraq’s stability hinging on its ability to maintain sovereignty amidst these external and internal challenges.
-⚡STA Lethal⚡
As I understand it, there was propaganda to the effect that Israel lost three F-35I (their version) aircraft, but I don’t believe that was substantiated. Internet rumor.
No F-35’s lost yet. From a friend who knows.
The Iranian images of “lost” F-35i aircraft was gloriously overdone!
There’s much to like about President Trump, but it is not hard to find things not to like. However his moves on the world stage are outstanding, Making Mike Huckabee Ambassador to Israel was another outstanding move.
Overall the things to like about Mr. Trump far outweigh what there is to dislike, IMHO anyway.
Thanks LL for your daily insights, entertainment and educational posts!
“Reorder the Middle East”
That will do wonders for the Big Beautiful Bill, and midterm elections. Will the Sunni, previously in power in Iraq until Proconsul L. Paul Bremer officially removed them from power; after we were greeted as liberators (and finding those WMD), be running that place again? Which Mossad/MI6/CIA backed leaders will be greeted with joy in Tehran? Will the sanctions imposed on Iran be instantly removed so that oil revenue will create the new Persian Shangri-la, or will politics rear its ugly head? Will Bibi get to stay in power (he was about to be removed with the collapse of a shaky coalition just a week ago), unlike Churchill, after this great casualty free victory? ( not the wogs, but the other casualties).
Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow….
Best ally, best ally, best ally, Beats the war drum from day to day….
Best Ally or not, if they take out the Iranian (DEATH TO AMERICA) nuclear capability, go for it.
“Slava Ukraini” seems to have left the internet. Replaced by Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran. A refrain heard since 1979
Trump stated what the majority of Middle East wants. Iran is a cancerous growth that prevents any good peace in the region. How this plays out is to be seen, but Iran has oil, and oil is useless if it can’t be produced from facilities destroyed by war. It doesn’t look good from any perspective, but the Iranians have the most to lose.
Some of the methane/natural gas facilities have been destroyed because they’re used for domestic power production and also to make explosives. I think that most of the oil production is intact. I haven’t heard of strikes on Kharg Island. The idea is to leave that for the next government in Iran.
The idea of not taking restaurant recommendations from people whose thighs don’t touch needs a little more info. There’s a difference between people whose thighs don’t touch when their legs are parallel and those whose thighs are pointed 90 degrees from each other. Now I can’t get that image out of my brain…
The 600 pounders don’t get out much…that was taking my point a little farther than I intended.
I think we’ve been at war (quietly) with Iran since they took the embassy in 79 and we did nothing.
X2
The continuing low-level war between the US and Iran parallels the Cold War struggle between the US and the USSR. Both use lots of proxy fighters, both ship intel, money and weapons to said proxy fighters.
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And now it looks like we’re going for outright in-your-face direct conflict.
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All of this could have been avoided if Jimmy “The Dimmeh” Carter hadn’t screwed the Shaw. If the Clintons hadn’t sucked up to the Iranian weird beards. If Barack the Lightbringer hadn’t internationally fellated said weird beards and used them to launder money for him and his man-wife. If Biden (pre-senility) hadn’t sold secrets to Iran and supported them monetarily with our money for some compensation. If those running Biden’s administration (it sure wasn’t him or Jill) hadn’t acted in lining their pockets with Iranian money and US money laundered through Iran.
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Gee… It’s almost like the Democrats are the real enemies here…
Gee… It’s almost like the Democrats are the real enemies here…
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I cast the net somewhat wider here. And I don’t know that the Swamp can be beaten. If we can reduce the deficit or even come to a balanced budget I’d feel a lot better about our chances of not falling from the cliff.
if we don’t get involved, I wonder if Vladimir Vladimirovich will request airspace permission from Armenia, Georgia, or Azerbaijan; or will he get involved if we do?
that excrescence on his southern border doesn’t appear all that far from that knob on Iran’s northern border – over Azerbaijan, of course.
If he has the capacity to do anything at this point, it would look like Ezekiel 38.
The question about Vlad, Baby, is does he have anything short of canned sunlight left in his bag of tricks?
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For good or ill, Russia has been bled militarily and monetarily and materially dry in Ukraine. The Navy’s greatly reduced. The Army’s guns are shot out, and tanks are depleted. The Air Force has been subjected to combat losses in both the air and the ground.
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Seriously, does Putin have anything short of missiles, which were suspected of mostly not working at the end of the Cold War and may not have improved that much since, and nukes, which also were suspected of mostly not working and may not have improved that much since, to throw at anyone in a long range struggle?
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And Red China, West Taiwan, sits back and smiles at Russia’s reduced capacity and capability.
as has been noted in certain South Sea islands:
it’s not what you eat or how much; it’s with (upon?) whom you dine
Africa after 2B USAID
Needs clarity. It doesn’t show the domiciles of the USAID personnel dispensing the aid.
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Iran
Much more knowledgeable folks than me are commenting. IMO, if we are the only force capable of destroying certain facilities, then do it now.
Wings in the sky do not equate to boots on the ground.
Let it be someone else’s boots than ours.
+1000
Congress first.
Doesn’t show the indie…could be like that Harry Potter little threadbare tent that once you enter it’s a multi-level palace inside. Maybe they have 82″ Roku flatscreen with Starlink, a full bar with kitchen, and those electric recliners….all using renewables to power said domicile.
*show the INSIDE…
😁
“President Donald Trump abruptly announced that he would leave the G7 summit a day early…” Because he’s a serious no nonsense type who gets to the bottom line and doesn’t waffle around at parties when there is real work to be done. Know anyone else in your life like that, viewing most meetings as the great alternative to real work? (guessing ALL of those who lurk here…serious types)
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Whatever happens today and the next few will be interesting. Trump – the man – hates war with a passion while PDJT hates war EVEN MORE and wants to avoid conflict wherever possible…making that crying wuss of a 74 year-old woman at the asinine “No Kings peaceful protest rally”(aka an aged hippie redux without the tie-dye) a fully mentally ill person. She emphatically spouted the exact opposite of the [above] character of PDJT, and is so indoctrinated tone deaf she has no clue who is doing the damage to America and internationally…THEM!
TDS. It’s not just for college kids.
Apparently…and yet that grown-a$$ woman had no shame in being the merryandrew-ette fool on camera. BUT HEY! she’s famous now…and that is so important.
Infamous.
Palestinian State – France could move the Pals to Corsica. Pretty sure the problem would
solve itself, there. Good time to invest in a store selling pikes for putting heads on there,
in that eventuality.
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US / Iran – if Iran didn’t want war with the US, they shouldn’t have spent the better part
of the last 50 years repeatedly declaring war on us, and attacking our personnel, private
citizens, property and assets. I am _strongly_ in favor of punitive strikes, eliminating their
military and naval equipment, and shutting down their economy. I think invading on the
ground would be a very poor idea since the US electorate never seems capable of
supporting that sort of thing for the time required to follow through. Not to mention all
the Beltway (and associated) pigs that always gather ’round the trough.
– Kle.
the classical media (newpapers and TV) do not support boots on the ground (by The Donald, anyway), but the 25-50 y.o. group (unofficial poll) has begun to read more blogs like LLs
Nimitz CSG should be through Malacca Straits tonight. Then it’s 4100nm to the Gulf, so 10-15 days enroute yet… But Ford and Ike CSGs are in East Med, so roughly 1000nm from Tehran. I think this will all be over befoe Nimitz gets there.
Graveyard dead, not “mostly dead”, eh? Guess they won’t be having fun storming the castle after that…
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I prefer to take my restaurant recommendations from veterans who’ve been around a few countries and seen a few things. OldNFO’s recommendations have sent me everywhere from high-class downtown restaurants to well off the beaten path in search of the most out-of-the-way dives. Either way, the food is *amazing.*
Old NFO and I used to meet at Hodad’s. Enough said.
Hodad’s was amazing the time I went there.
Mike Hardin, the Hodad, and original owner of Hodad’s, passed in 2015, and his son runs the place. The food hasn’t changed, and neither has the line to get in.
Those Shakespeare quotes weren’t written by Shakespeare.
They were written by another guy named Shakespeare.
Or by Francis Bacon.
Everything is better with bacon.
That’s what the cannibal said.
Thanks for the Iran briefing, let’s see how it plays out. My feeling is bad for Iran, but that’s just me. But what about Alberta? Curious to note G7 touched down in Calgary, Alberta, and NOT Edmonton. Interesting.
When does the Stampede start in Calgary?
It’s in July. They always have a Special Event Amateur Radio Station operating.