Welcome to May. If you didn’t make it, you won’t be reading this.
Bullet Points:
** So you want to go to Mars? The realistic trajectory to Mars exploration is with robotic systems. AI might provide the key ingredient – an intelligent robot rather than sending meat in a can.
** I refer to the Third World as “land of the not quite right.” I have spent some time in the developing world, and the theme remains the same. It’s not that I have a problem with the Third World. If I weren’t married with kids and grandkids to enrich my life, I’d think about liquidating and finding a corner of the planet where I could open a modern version of “Rick’s Café Américain” from the 1942 film Casablanca. Or open a dive charter in Belize and not care if I get a single charter trip.
** Woodsterman (Odie), a friend and blogger, made the logo (right) for me in 2017. I can’t believe that it was nine years ago. A long time passing and not so long ago.
** The Swiss Mercenaries It is said that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
** The increase in the USD value is achieved by recognizing the global supply chain’s shift away from China and positioning in companies that stand to benefit from that transition, rather than directly shorting Chinese equities. And in China, Xi watches the bordering nations position themselves to build nuclear weapons as US allies.
** In Finland, Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen says China’s ties with Russia are a “disqualifying factor” for any EU-China trade deal. No FTA talks. No negotiations. Not unless China drops Russia. Finland has veto power. All 27 EU members must agree. Finland just used its vote to shut the door. China wants a deal. The EU is divided. Finland is drawing a line in the sand. This is not just about trade. This is about the new Cold War. Finland is choosing sides. Clearly. The question is whether the rest of Europe follows or fractures. (editorial note: I’ve worked with intelligence services throughout Europe in the past. Of all of them, the Fins impressed me the most. The Germans are as good as the French. The Brits were excellent before they Islamified MI-5 and MI-6. Now, who knows? And the Fins share a border with Russia. They are serious about their neighbors to the East.
** (h/t Ken) On April 21, Japan officially lifted its last major restrictions on weapons exports. For a country that has followed a pacifist framework since World War II, this is not a minor policy tweak. It’s a major strategic pivot. For decades, Japan had the industrial capability to build world-class military equipment—submarines, fighter jets, missile systems, but chose not to compete globally. That constraint was self-imposed. Japan is not starting from scratch. Companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries already have the technological depth and manufacturing precision to rival the best in the world. The difference now is scale. With access to international demand, production increases, costs come down, and capacity expands rapidly. This is how industries transform from domestic suppliers to global players. At the same time, geopolitical reality is accelerating this shift. Rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, ongoing conflicts in Europe, and growing uncertainty across Asia are forcing countries to rethink supply chains, not just for semiconductors, but for security itself. Even NATO has taken notice, sending its largest-ever delegation to Japan recently. That’s strategic alignment, not symbolism. The uncomfortable truth is this: the world is running short on weapons production capacity.
** Every man and every woman is troubled by the dribble. The toilet seat sits damp because the person before us did not do the basic lift.
** The UAE sees this as a good time to bail, since OPEC is at a weak point, with the US ramping up oil production under Trump and outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia combined, plus Trump bringing Venezuelan oil under US influence. Why, it’s almost as if he had a master plan to choke off both oil and oil revenues to our enemies while forcing oil prices down on the open market. Nah, that’s impossible: he’s “chaotic” and “has no plan.” (Hotair.com) has more background. It reports that the UAE is also considering withdrawing from the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, possibly after noticing that when they were attacked by Iran, their Arab neighbors didn’t help, but the US, UK, Israel, France, Italy, South Korea, and Australia did.
VM Commentary: Iran/Persia is an interesting place. There are so many faces of Iran/Persia. In its current iteration, it’s a military dictatorship. One can argue that it was the same, only different, under the Shah when there was a Peacock Throne. In much the same way, as the Russians seem to gravitate toward a strong-man dictatorship, Iran/Persia clings to the same model. Yes, the twelvers wielded a lot of power, but as we see unfolding in real time, once the head of the chicken has been cut off, it’s still running around. I remember sitting in the airport in Doha last year. The departure gate adjacent to mine (bound for Erbil, KRG) was leaving for Tehran, Iran. There was a mother/daughter duo. Both beautiful, blonde hair, green eyes, Aryan Persian, dressed to the 9s, and dripping in gold, carrying stuff they bought in Qatar. Daughter – mid-20s in particular mad-doged me because I was obviously American and the only American in the departure area, sitting in the first class zone. Then, as boarding for Tehran commenced, they tented up in black, covering their perfumed couture, gold, and physical beauty, and prepared to return home. I thought how like the Persians.
You can argue (go ahead) that the global elites are behind the war against Iran, and that’s fair enough, but the Ayatollahs and the military dictatorship in Iran planned to use nuclear weapons to blackmail the Middle East (for all that it is and isn’t). China egged them on from the wings because China would continue to draw discounted oil from the Ayatollah. Global brinksmanship. The US is the only nation capable of standing up to them, and trillions of dollars are at stake.
I went to war to preserve the Al Sabah dynasty in Kuwait thirty years ago and knew it for what it was then. Higher stakes now.
So where are we? The US will soon take out the transportation infrastructure in the East that links Iran to China and Pakistan by destroying bridges. There will likely be more strikes along the coasts to damage more of the small boats that the IRGC is using to threaten commerce. I anticipate that we’ll also crater the runways that the Chinese are using to fly in war supplies to the IRGC. What will Iran do?
Amazon LEO, etc.
Amazon LEO (formerly known as Project Kuiper) is a massive Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation designed to provide high-speed, low-latency broadband internet worldwide. As of April 2026, the company has officially transitioned from the development phase to full-scale deployment. Amazon has launched over 200 satellites and is on pace to complete 11 launches in its first year of deployment, with hundreds more satellites ready for launch.
It will be fascinating to see how Amazon LEO prices its services and how the Chinese mega constellations** price LEO in the developing world. Musk has not made many friends with Starlink’s bullying tactics, and I expect the Chinese to be priced aggressively as they do in other strategic segments. Buyers of the SpaceX IPO are facing far more pricing/margin risk than they expect.
Starlink is planning to move from LEO to Geosync, which is a LOT higher and a LOT more persistent with their data centers.
** China is rapidly deploying massive Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, primarily GuoWang (National Network) and Qianfan (Thousand Sails/G60), aiming to launch over 15,000 satellites by 2030 to compete with Starlink, provide global broadband, and enhance military intelligence. These state-backed, dual-use systems are designed to secure strategic orbital slots, improve communication, and bolster national surveillance capabilities
Dust up in Sinaloa, Mexico
Those of you who are following events in Mexico will note that the U.S. charged the governor of Mexico’s Sinaloa state and other officials with drug trafficking, sparking a diplomatic dispute. The Justice Department said that Sinaloa Gov. Rubén Rocha partnered with leaders of the country’s powerful Sinaloa cartel to smuggle drugs into the U.S. in exchange for political support and bribes. The U.S. requested his arrest and extradition.
Mexico’s Foreign Ministry said the extradition request lacks sufficient evidence against the accused. It added that the Justice Department’s disclosure of the information breached the confidentiality provisions of current treaties, and that the government will file a formal complaint with the U.S. Embassy.
The communist/Morena Party in Mexico, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, to which Rocha belongs, is under pressure from the drug cartels that fund it and from the US government. Rocha is a close ally of former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Sheinbaum’s mentor and predecessor. The 76-year-old Rocha is charged with kidnapping for murder and drug smuggling. He’s looking at life at a facility in Uganda (narcoterrorism).
Identify the Aircraft
1 & 2
Identify the Ship
3
Hint: On her way to a new home
4
10 built
5
12 built
End
(1) Northrop F-5 and F-5B .
(2) MM Giuseppe Garibaldi CVL, soon to be Indonesian.
(3) USCG Bertholf, lead ship of the Legend/NSC class.
(4) USCG Rush, Hamilton class. Now Bangladeshi Somudra Avijan.
– Kle.
You got them, Kle.
Forgive the interruption in the thread. Larry and the other contributors, where are you following your news sources lately? I feel out of touch because I don’t watch network media
I get very little of what I put on the blog from network media, but I don’t disregard it entirely. I attempt to source link much of it. Most information comes with bias and I try to understand the bias or the agenda before I post it here for the consumption of whomever passes by. I’m not always successful. For news out of Red China, I often vet information by people I know in the “East” which is vague because I have friends who visit Communist China and some have been involved in diplomatic efforts there – not all from the USA. I have direct sources in the Middle East among the Kurds, for example. I’ve also been around and to that extent I have a BS filter that I try to apply – sometimes it’s imperfect.
3 is ASW Aircraft Carrier; Garibaldi class Italian recently sold to Indonesia. (Coincidentally going to Indonesia next week)
4 is USCGC Bertholf the first Legend-class.
5 is USCGC Rush was a Hamilton-class
Yes, and I hope that the Indonesians make good use of her. The Italians have refitted her for her new owners. Will it deter the Chinese from strip-mining Indonesian waters of fish? The Chinese are just that way. Maybe if the Indonesians sink half a dozen Chinese fishing ships and their Chinese Coast Guard escorts in Indonesian waters?
What will Indonesia fly off of it? Helos? Do they have Harriers or F-35s? Maybe converted cropdusters?
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Having a carrier is one thing. Being able to fly and fight over an area, and do proper flight deck management and control, is quite another.
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And, of course, who would have thunk Indonesia would arm up against the ChiComs? Xi is slitting his own throat.
Identify the Aircraft
1 – Northrop F5
2 – Northrop F5B
Identify the Ship
3 – Italian Navy Giuseppe Garibaldi
4 – USCGC Bertholf (
5 – USCGC Rush
Here’s hoping you are right LL, and we soon go back to bombing Iran.
The negotiations are worthless, they will never negotiate in good faith.
Perhaps useful as a pause to reload, but that goes both ways.
*
Until and unless they surrender, I see no reason Iran should have ports, airports,
railroads, ships, aircraft, pipelines, whatever. If they want to try and ship oil to
the PRC on camels, GLWT. Bomb everything. When it looks like they have repair
crews somewhere, bomb them too.
*
We also need to just go ahead and run escorts through Hormuz. Stick 3 or 4
LCS around a Burke, give them plenty of air cover, and just do it. Is there risk?
Sure. There’s zero point in having a military force if you aren’t willing to take risks
with it, though.
*
One of Trump’s greatest weaknesses is that he is too devoted to “jaw-jaw” and
too hesitant of “war-war”. He thinks talk can solve anything, and everyone is
reasonable. That will not work here.
– Kle.
Pres. Trump is very war-averse. Obviously, it doesn’t mean that he fears using military power to accomplish an end. Iran has no grasp of that concept. Meanwhile, US oil exports and the UAE (possibly Oman too) breaking from OPEC and going it alone are changing the energy map to Iran’s detriment. In the long term, it will help oil-dependent nations. Will the UK resume drilling in the North Sea? Or will they rely on wind farms?
Refraining from taking out serious infrastructure in hopes the enemy will negotiate worked well with North Vietnam, didn’t it? Nixon came in an turned loose the B-52s. That got things moving. It didn’t end well, true, but inertia was overcome. PDJT is made of sterner stuff. He is serious about lives lost but will do what is needed, IMO.
Agreed
Where’s LeMay when you need him…..
Well, we don’t need to firebomb every habitable building in Iran, so dial back a bit on the LeMay.
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And, really, we want to wipe out their warfighting ability, not turn the whole country against us again.
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It’s the glove/iron fist thingy. You have to show the resolve to bomb the whole damn country back past the stone-age, while doing pinpoint strikes at critical facilities and keep whacking the command and control facilities and people. And blowing up all their little boats. Kind of like the Blockade and Starve plan that the US Navy had planned for Japan before the two flashbulbs ended it.
Identify the Aircraft:
1. Northrop F-5E
2. Northrop F-5F
Identify the Ship:
3. Italian carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi, soon to be in the Indonesian Navy.
4. USCGC Bertholf of the Legend-class
5. USCGC Rush of the Hamilton-class, now the BNS Somudra Avijan.
On point, yes.
When I was in Coast Guard aviation we called #5 a 378, I’d forgotten it had a class name.
PDJT and Team are not finished with/in Iran, they will see it to a conclusion. I suspect next comes the economic aspect as a result of galactic stubbornness on the Wack-A-Mullah’s refusal to concede or stick to an agreement. Statement by Mullah Jr., who no one knows is actually alive, portends less cooperation and putting down the sword. Oh well…but high time this ends. Agree with Kle, escorts through Hormuz take out anything deemed a threat….same goes for Somali ship runs to thwart the insane “pirates” in skiffs, blow them out of the water, enough of this international rules baloney…too many have suffered.
***
May Day…only 3 weeks more of potential Winter here in the Rockies.
Letters of Marque issued to those transiting the Somali run, maybe services provided by whatever passes for Blackwater et al these days. Modern day Q-ships? I’ve been looking for something to do in retirement and even an old fart like me could still run a sheen gun or whatever.
Running a private military company of pipe hitters is very different from running a fleet of ships intent on capturing the shadow fleet and bringing them to the nearest prize port. Great nations like having a monopoly on naval violence these days. If I owned oil tankers, I’d have chainguns on them and US mercenaries operating them. The ship owners are accustomed to going it on the cheap with crews, etc.
Always comes down to the MBA’s and accountants trying save a buck.
Too cynical? Let’s see how this plays out.
Bean counters are important and fiscal prudence is alawys a good idea but life is a balance.
Not cynical enough, Paul. I’ve yet to see a company improve once the bean counters got control of it.
Executive Suite
Garbed (as in dressed) to the 9’s-Some 40 years ago (time flies) leaving the Middle East Sandbox in the wide first class seats, witnessed a similar event as LL only in reverse. Female native of the departure country came on the flight dressed in all black with only eyes exposed. After the plane entered international airspace, the female stood up and with a twirling motion, all the black garb disappeared and there stood an attractively dressed female wearing stiletto heels with a glass of champagne in hand. Must have been a “magic glass” as I never saw it empty.
On return flights to the country it was common to see a reverse performance just prior to exiting international airspace.
The way flights are now, with each first/business-class seat in a separate room (or combined to make couples suites or family rooms), the women often parade down the aisles in silks and so forth, tending before they land.
Sad to see that… but survival requires it in that “culture”, which has become the modern locust swarm in many a city. Gotta stop it dead in its tracks, reversing the trend as best one can.
“Every man and every woman…”
if you’re referring to what I think you’re referring to, particularly the sitzpinkler vs. the stehpinkler, the sitzpinkler still has a partially full bladder and when he arises from the sitting position, he can continue urinate quite a bit further (this becomes even more obvious @ 75+). Men with enlarged prostates who are on Flowmax (tamsulosin) who stand there a while and still dribble, will dribble on the porcelain, not the seat (unless they’re target shooting), but the seat problem arises with the sitzpinkler (and women with weakened musculature) when they arise.
There are excercises (that actually work) for both men and women which can alleviate this problem to a some degree.
Of course, polite people who realize they have such a problem, can always use a piece of toilet paper to wipe the front of the (or the entire) seat rim.
If this is not what you were referring to, then I’m just being Gross
It was only an observation of a human failing that people remark about at times. I didn’t want to get too far in the weeds with it.
I can vouch. Interesting.
From what I know, Mars is a step above the Moon, as far as survivability, but not by much. To make things worse, there is a suspicion the soil may be poisonous, and pathogens lurking that humans have never been exposed to. With the terribly long time required to reach Mars, and the constant exposure to ionizing radiation that can’t be completely shielded, it really doesn’t make much sense to send humans. Losing a crew would be disastrous, but losing a few robots would only lead to more technically superior machines. If resources can be found that allow long term survival, then maybe sending crewed missions can be contemplated.
I’d be more mpressed by the review if the speaker knew how to pronounce “perchlorate”
IMO, all the problems he mentioned could be overcome.
The motto is Ad Astra Per Aspera
If we have AI robots work the place for a decade or so, we’ll solve many of the problems that might come up. Or maybe not. If we send people there and they’re stuck waiting 2 years for a launch window in distress, it would be bad.
LL, are you saying we own them?
Let’s have CONSTABTINOPLE. Sayn.
Did I say that we own the Turks?
Rick’s Café Américain already exists in Manama, and I enjoyed the food. It’s also a ‘favorite’ of the Marine guards at 5th Fleet. :-)