Notions (this and that)

Caption Photo: The Far Side of the Moon looks like the Death Star. The photo of the Orientale Basin was released by the astronauts aboard Artemis II.  I’ll see you there.

Hot Wash

Iranian 358 Loitering SAM – As with everything else, part of the reason the Iranians can hit our aircraft may well be their embrace of unconventional weapons and tactics. Among them is Product 358. This is a loitering munition. It is launched from the ground and then hovers overhead waiting for an enemy aircraft to approach. The 358 is launched from the ground without a radar-guided preset target. Radar lock would provide the target aircraft with advanced warning, and would also “illuminate’‘ the missile launchers. Instead, the 358 searches for targets using an optic sensor in its seeker head.

The missile is armed with infrared proximity fuses that enable its warhead (weighing several kilograms) to explode near the target and destroy it, even if the missile does not make direct impact with the aircraft. It is also equipped with GPS antennas to help it overcome jamming.

The 358 has a relatively low velocity compared to conventional anti-aircraft missiles, and it is not capable of intercepting high-speed fighter jets. It is potentially very deadly to helicopters, drones, and other slower-moving targets. It can operate up to 30,000 feet.

The 358 is effectively a sky mine. It hovers in place waiting for a target to approach. Like a landmine or a seamine – it is very hard to detect. I don’t know whether this weapon was used to strike the F-15E that we lost over Iran recently, but there is a probability that this was the culprit. That they haven’t been successful against US and Israeli aircraft to date suggests that the sky mines got lucky. It may be possible to fly LUCAS drones ahead of US strikes in the future to attract loitering mines.

From Comments:

Al-K asked: But to that topic, a question. How long does it take you to write 5,000 unedited words for a novel? Not looking for exacts, just getting perspective on what it means, time-wise, when you comment 50,000 words for a new book like “Half Life”. I think most people have no idea what amount of time commitment that requires.

LL replies: That is a very complicated question to answer due to the variables involved. If I’m left alone, no phone calls, no distractions, no other work to be done – just raw composition. Sometimes it takes a week to fire off 5,000 words that hold together. I’ve done that in a full day, too, if I’m on a roll.

The 50,000 words from Half Life mentioned are the outline, not the book. It’s a starting point. I’ve been thinking about Half Life as a novel for a couple of years now. Now that I’m working on it seriously, at least half of those 50,000 words will be scrapped. Same with the sketches I did for it to build the civilization the engineered species lives in. They provided a foundational framework. Once you get away from the near future (Broken Toys and Hungry Ghosts), building a credible world to the extent that I’m able to do that requires quite a bit of thought. So bashing out 5K words is based on a lot of foundational concepts that only underlie the text. It’s difficult to quantify time. For example, the planet Libria (where the COIL “live”)

(Ch 4) He called up Libria’s planetary globe on his workstation. Even though it only existed in front of him as a virtual simulation, it looked completely solid. He spun it from the light side to the dark side with his right index finger and examined notations at the terminator where light met darkness. Liquid water covered somewhere around 90 percent of the surface. The landmasses consisted of half a dozen archipelagos of scattered islands of different sizes.

“It has a bulk super-rotating atmosphere.”

Holden knew the voice, and he looked over his shoulder.

“That means that the atmosphere rotates faster than the planet.” Franx stood behind Holden, looking over his shoulder. “The thick atmosphere homogenizes the temperature so that there is liquid water on both the side that faces the star and the side that faces away from the star, Holden.”

“Thanks, Franx. When did you become an expert?” Holden spun his chair 180 degrees to face the carrot-topped, freckled face of Franx de Haan.

Figuring out how a bulk superrotating atmosphere would work on a tidally locked planet orbiting a red dwarf (hard science) required a discussion (and buying food/drink) with the head of Planetary Sciences at CalTech, who is a longtime friend. The discussion of the planet in Ch 4 – longer than the clip above, may be a couple thousand words at most in total, but required long-term research. The same is true of much of the (hard) science on which I built some of the rest. I try to use hard science where possible to bolster the imagination of ‘what if.’

Deciding how to craft the journey of Henry Hudson (Confederate Cipher, etc.) likewise didn’t take that long to write once I built the framework, but the draft outline (Scarlet and Gray – maybe 60K words) required research at the Henry Huntington Library and in-person site examinations and discussions. If it feels like you’re there, it’s because in a real sense, I was – casting back in time to what this would have looked like, felt like, smelled like, then. Then there’s the issue of which details to include and which to exclude for readability.

And if I earn $200.00 in total royalties from the book, I’ll be thrilled. There is no practical ratio of time to earnings. It’s art, a labor of love. And in the end, if the reviews are coarse or harsh, or people read it and don’t bother to write a review (which is what Amazon cares about) it kind of bites.

It should be obvious to readers of the VM blog and books that I’m trying to develop something over the years (casting forward) through a body of work that will justify the effort. Whether I’m successful or not is a measure of how one defines success.

Al-K asked: UAV’s are a complicated topic. But ultimately, how much boom is needed to kill the target? Then, how to get it to the target accurately and effectively? Those answers will decide what’s required from a fifty-dollar one that can go in a house window to get a sniper, versus a multi-million-dollar one large enough to sink an aircraft carrier. People want to harp on the fifty-dollar one as if that’s all that’s needed. But that makes as much sense as saying every soldier only needs a sharpened wooden stick versus a machine gun.

LL replies: I was in the UAV business about a decade ago, which began with a concept that would fly on the Mars Science Laboratory (lander). It evolved, as I have mentioned on the blog before. (see right) The questions you posed were engineering questions that we discussed at the time. This UAV uses ducted fans instead of open blades and was guided by a pad (like an iPhone) designed for that purpose. The UAV was hands-free for the user. I sold Nikon (Japan) on developing the camera that it would use, etc. IARPA had uses, and so forth. The design needs to match the intended use. Everything is a trade-off.  The retail cost of this UAV (right) was US$800.00 + the cost of the Halliburton case. It charged from AC/DC/direct or through induction for one model that would ride on and fly from/return to a military vehicle. One model had ground-penetrating radar used for hunting landmines – the same low-power unit that flew on the Mars Science Laboratory – developed in Norway.

In my present UAV business venture, which is still developing, I’m working on something even more radical since this (right) is a generation old. They’re throwing enough money at this project that I think it might all come together. I want to do it in Arizona for a number of very practical reasons. The new UAV business has very different user requirements, and it will be an interesting engineering challenge.

Oregon Counties That Voted to Leave And Join Idaho (2020 – 2024)

From Ammo.com

Women are becoming gun owners at a faster rate than men, which has narrowed the long-standing gap in gun ownership between the two sexes. Our latest report examines not just ownership rates, but reasons for ownership and trends.

• Female gun ownership increased by 5-15% since 1980, while male gun ownership decreased by 11%.
• Between 39 and 43% of U.S. men (65-71 million) reported owning firearms in 2025.
• Between 17 and 25% of U.S. women (29-43 million) reported owning firearms in 2025.

The gender gap in gun ownership is narrowing; you can learn more about why and how in this report.

Should the US Bureau of Prisons

Give Alcatraz a facelift?

Bullet Points:

** China’s policy shift toward Iran is driven by its own interests. Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has heavily impacted China. A large portion of the oil shipments passing through the strait are destined for China, making it one of the most affected countries. Rising oil prices caused by the disruption also hit China hard as the world’s largest oil importer. Under these conditions, Beijing had little choice but to adjust its position. At the beginning of the conflict, China criticized only the U.S. and Israel while avoiding criticism of Iran. Now, it has openly named and criticized Iran, rejected its attacks on Gulf states, and demanded that Iran ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz. From Iran’s perspective, this shift amounts to a form of betrayal, abandoning it at a critical moment. —  The real measure of betrayal and abandonment by China of Iran is whether China continues to supply parts for the drones and buy its oil. China has abstained on a couple of UN votes condemning Russia. But China still supplies parts and tech for Russia’s military and buys Russian goods, particularly oil and gas. You can’t measure China and its relationships by what it says, only truly by what it does.

** Not only was the search-and-rescue mission a success in saving American service members without a single casualty, but it was also a massive PR and psy-ops success. Even other Arab nations are now mocking Iran for being unable to stop the US from coming in and plucking their soldiers out of Iran without Iran being able to do anything about it. In a region where people respect the “strong horse,” that made Iran look like a weak jackass, or as many put it, “a paper tiger.”

 ** “I’m noticing a lot of foreigners who seem not to understand why we’d risk hundreds of lives, spend millions of dollars, and sacrifice several aircraft to rescue one guy. And the reason they don’t understand is also the reason people can’t be made American by a piece of paper.” (amen)

** CDRSAL pivots his CSAR scan from Iran to Red China.

** (H/T Claudio – Strategypage) – Russian forces have taken 1.5 percent of Ukrainian territory in the last two years at the cost of 20,000 armored vehicles and nearly a million casualties. The Ukrainians are now on the offensive, while the Russians have to hire foreigners to replace Russian losses. Russia is now losing more men each month than they can replace. The Russians are also learning that, by not losing, the Ukrainians are winning.

Identify the Aircraft

1 & 2

Identify the Ship/Class

3

4

End