Joey and Elmer

Caption: Twin buck Coes deer – WWM, Arizona – When I first moved to Arizona, I took more photos of the local wildlife. And in that time, I named a few ot them. Today, at age 6, they are big bucks who still live on the property, roaming as deer do.

 

 

Bullet Points:

** Somalia’s ambassador to the UN, Abukar Dahir Osman, is a daycare administrator in Ohio. You cannot make this up.

** Venezuela is no longer under communist control. You can’t say that about NYC.

** Are any of you brave enough to go ice fishing with EdB?

** ALL the wind turbines in ALL of New England are contributing only 5.7% of the power to the grid. Or in other words, only 957 MW of the current system demand of 16,881 MW. After many billions spent on wind energy, natural gas supplies 51% of our electricity, and nuclear supplies 20%, keeping their lights on. Source: ISO-NE Website

** This winter, boating with EdB -> Right (more here)

** Dangerous cat.

** (h/t Claudio) You can’t tell the players without a program – On December 30, the United Arab Emirates announced that its forces would leave Yemen after Saudi Arabia insisted that the UAE withdraw from the country the same day, echoing demands from leaders of Yemen’s internationally recognized government (IRG). Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been part of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen to fight the Houthis. However, they have divergent policies and preferred actors in the country.

** In 1776, the average American earned about s277 shillings (or £13.85 a year. Of that, the British taxed the colonists less than 1% (about 1/3 of a percent). For that, we launched a revolution. Yes, I know there was more involved. But even that tiny amount was intolerable to our ancestors, “without representation”. Today, Americans pay from 30% to 60% of their earnings to the government (including state and municipal). Yes, we have “representation”. But still… So, we should all be incensed and infuriated that some of that hard-earned and over-taxed money is going to Somalia, perhaps funding clan warlords. (through NGOs that funnel money back to the democrat party through laundering schemes)

** Adam Schiff – the lowest form of life.

** I started organizing my documents to file my tax return. Last night, an unknown person broke into the White Wolf Mine and stole all of them. I’m sure the IRS and the State of Arizona will be understanding when I don’t pay additional taxes this year. The same thing happened when I was in high school: my dog ate my homework.

** How do you deal with single-family home supply and demand issues?

** Jules cruises the nights during the Wolf Moon. (left)

** Historic Drug Trade – Circa 1800, opium was the one thing the Chinese would pay silver for. One ounce of best opium for one ounce of pure silver. It cost the British less than one-tenth of that to produce. They had overhead costs. The British had to pay to smuggle it into China, which meant bribing officials in silver, but they made at least 50% on the trade. Opium was the backbone of British India.

** Actor George Clooney, along with his wife Amal Alamuddin Clooney, and their two children, have become French citizens.” Pres. Trump is assisting self-deporting celebrities one communist at a time. (Alternative ending: Ne pas lettez le door hittez vous on zee oui oui on zee way au revoir.)

** January 9 was going to be a big day in Venezuela as Maduro planned to re-install himself to begin a third (illegitimate) term in office. Delegations from Communist China and Russia arrived to participate in the celebration. The party was canceled. These things happen. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said that “the time has come for sovereignty” following the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. had better keep Murduro in a secure location. (not the Epstein cell) Many Democrats will want him dead and silenced!

 

 

 

The US Law Enforcement Operation in Venezuela

The United States launched a large-scale military operation in Caracas, Venezuela, early Saturday, with special forces seizing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. It’s possible that they were deputized as Special Deputy United States Marshals before the seizure. That is not an uncommon sheep dip in a situation such as this. I’ve been deputized or cross-designated in several situations over several years. I still have the credentials in my safe or somewhere. They’re issued for limited periods of time – and renewed as necessary.* There is a pending 2020 indictment of Maduro in the Southern District of New York, where he is expected to be taken to face prosecution. The operation comes not long after the 37th anniversary of the capture of Manuel Antonio Noriega on Dec. 20, 1989. Noriega was convicted of drug and money laundering offenses and sentenced to 40 years in prison. He was tried in Miami.

* The U.S. Marshals Service (USMS) Special Deputation Program grants temporary federal law enforcement authority, similar to a Deputy U.S. Marshal, to approved officers from other agencies—whether state, local, or federal—and security personnel for specific missions.

I was involved with that invasion of Panama as a member of the US Naval Special Warfare contingent all those years ago. Congressional approval of Operation Just Cause established (another) precedent for President Trump’s actions yesterday. By now, you’ll have been bombarded by news stories, and I don’t intend to flog the donkey (more than usual) here on Virtual Mirage. This operation will be justified as executing the criminal warrant and responding to an international drug cartel, a very similar legal framework to the one used against Noriega. There is precedent supporting that earlier operation, which will now be used to defend the actions in Venezuela.

Maduro was indicted in a four-count superseding indictment with Diosdado Cabello Rondón, 56, head of Venezuela’s National Constituent Assembly; Hugo Armando Carvajal Barrios aka “El Pollo,” 59, former director of military intelligence; Clíver Antonio Alcalá Cordones, 58, former General in the Venezuelan armed forces; Luciano Marín Arango aka “Ivan Marquez,” 64, a member of the FARC’s Secretariat, which is the FARC’s highest leadership body; and Seuxis Paucis Hernández Solarte aka “Jesús Santrich,” 53, a member of the FARC’s Central High Command, which is the FARC’s second-highest leadership body.

From the Indictment: “Maduro helped manage and ultimately lead the Cartel of the Suns, a Venezuelan drug-trafficking organization comprised of high-ranking Venezuelan officials. As he gained power in Venezuela, Maduro participated in a corrupt and violent narco-terrorism conspiracy with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization. Maduro negotiated multi-ton shipments of FARC-produced cocaine; directed the Cartel of the Suns to provide military-grade weapons to the FARC; coordinated with narcotics traffickers in Honduras and other countries to facilitate large-scale drug trafficking; and solicited assistance from FARC leadership in training an unsanctioned militia group that functioned, in essence, as an armed forces unit for the Cartel of the Suns. In March 2020, Maduro was charged in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices.”

The democrats are angry that a communist was taken off the chessboard – unsurprisingly. They’re irritated that the flow of illegal drugs to the US has been interdicted – unsurprisingly, etc. Democrat Congress members quickly denounced the operation as unlawful. They may want to review past cases, particularly the decision related to the Noriega prosecution after his capture by the administration of President George H.W. Bush. Pres. Trump does not need congressional approval for this type of operation. Presidents, including Democratic presidents, have launched lethal attacks regularly against individuals. President Barack Obama killed an American citizen under this “kill list” policy. If Obama can vaporize an American citizen without even a criminal charge, Trump can capture a foreign citizen with a pending criminal indictment without prior congressional approval. Ordinarily, the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and other international agreements require the United States to notify the embassy of a foreign national who has been arrested and detained in the United States. Notice seems a tad superfluous in this case.

TRUMP CASTS MADURO’S OUSTER AS ‘SMART’ MOVE AS RUSSIA, CHINA ENTER THE FRAY

In his appeal, Noriega argued that his arrest violated international law under the head-of-state immunity doctrine.  The district court rejected Noriega’s head-of-state immunity claim because the United States government never recognized Noriega as Panama’s legitimate ruler. This argument will be made in the Maduro prosecution. The United States for the Eleventh Circuit also rejected the immunity claim. Noriega also argued that his capture violated the Treaty Providing for the Extradition of Criminals, May 25, 1904, United States of America-Republic of Panama, 34 Stat. 2851 (“U.S.-Panama Extradition Treaty“).  The Supreme Court’s decision in United States v. Alvarez-Machain, 504 U.S. 655 (1992), however, was found to bar this argument. The issue was whether he was abducted to the United States with a superseding extradition treaty. The Eleventh Circuit held:

The article of the U.S.-Panama Extradition Treaty upon which Noriega relies for his extradition treaty claim contains almost the same language as the provision of the U.S.-Mexico Extradition Treaty at issue in Alvarez-Machain.   See U.S.-Panama Extradition Treaty, art.   5 (“Neither of the contracting parties shall be bound to deliver up its own citizen or subject ․”).

Under Alvarez-Machain, to prevail on an extradition treaty claim, a defendant must demonstrate, by reference to the express language of a treaty and/or the established practice thereunder, that the United States affirmatively agreed not to seize foreign nationals from the territory of its treaty partner.   Noriega has not carried this burden, and therefore, his claim fails.

The Noriega case offers ample support for the Trump administration, which has had an outstanding arrest warrant for over five years. He is not viewed as the duly elected leader of Venezuela and has been tied to a criminal drug cartel.

The action will also have a significant impact on foreign policy. The Monroe Doctrine just became the Trump Doctrine. This action not only confronted Venezuela but also Cuba, which was supplying the security around Maduro. Presumably, Cuban security may have been involved in the firefight. While cutting off vital oil to Cuba, the Trump Administration just delivered a blow against the Cuban regime — arguably one of the most stinging defeats since crushing the Cuban forces in Grenada in 1983.

Legally, Trump has the upper hand in this case. Maduro will replay the arguments from the Noriega case. However, he presents an even weaker case on the merits under the controlling precedent than did Noriega.

Things will change for the people of Venezuela.

 

Russia – The Price of Fresh Meat

(Strategy Page) (h/t Claudio) The Russians don’t care how much meat is fed into the Ukrainian War Machine. Putin doesn’t care, and Stalin never cared. Curbing information from the West reaching average Russians has led them to shut down WhatsApp, Telegram, etc. I communicate with people inside Russia carefully these days. I don’t want them to get into trouble. Food shortages are problematic. Fuel shortages, even in Tyumen, where most of the oil is refined, are a challenge to daily life. Vodka – the opiate of the masses – is also in short supply. There was no vodka to ring in the New Year on January 1st, and there won’t be any for Russians who celebrate it again on January 14; that date corresponds to New Year’s on the Julian Calendar used in Russia before 1918. I am told that there is weak orange concentrate that is mixed with water to celebrate. Three years after invading Ukraine, the Russian defense budget has turned into a monster, devastating the economy. This crisis has been brewing since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The increased defense spending and years of economic sanctions have distorted the economy, with more money spent on weapons and military needs. This displaces production of civilian goods.

Now that there is more military spending, corrupt officials are getting rich while soldiers are getting shoddy equipment. In the case of winter clothing procured for the soldiers, much of it ends up on the black market while the troops go without, and military procurement officials get rich. During the first winter of the war, Russian soldiers overcame these shortages by plundering Ukrainian civilians for cold-weather clothing. By the second year of the war, that source had dried up, and Russian soldiers stayed warm any way they could, or via winter clothing mailed to them by their families. The latter source didn’t work for long because the army looted the mail and sold the clothing on the black market.

 

Defending the Fleet

WSF, who has been having technical issues, asked a couple of questions about the point defense of warships at sea. I’m no CDRSAL. I was never a black shoe sailor, but I’ve been exposed to quite a bit over the years, so I’ll armchair through the questions and the rest of this blog’s readers can fill in the blanks. I’ve been approached since Christmas to work for a UAV company and may take the job. I know more than the average schmuck about UAVs.

The US made a decision some time ago to concentrate on destroyers, which, based on displacement and armament, could be classified as light cruisers, DLGs, or whatever. The old nomenclature has slipped. These (including the DDG-51 Burkes) were unprepared to engage small combatants (Iranian Boghammers) at close range, and they have been adding machine guns and chain guns to provide a close-range punch against a small-combatant surface threat.

Cruise missiles are drones in every way that matters, and point defense against low-flying missiles in the boundary area we discussed the other day has been on the minds of all navies. Please think of the Russian Flagship Moscova (Slava Class), now at the bottom of the Black Sea, along with a number of its crew. One cruise missile can ruin your day. Rolling airframe missiles, Sea Sparrows, and guns like the Phalanx have been mounted on ships to address that cruise missile threat. They work if the ship’s sensors see the danger. On US ships, the threat radar is “turned on” when in a threat environment and will automatically engage an incoming missile that meets the threat profiles.  In the case of the Moskova, I don’t know if defensive systems were active. Two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles hit it, and a lack of damage control allowed fires to burn out of control, which in turn led to ammunition explosions that finished the ship. I have been aboard Russian vessels of the Slava vintage, and they didn’t have any genuine damage control. They were designed for offensive naval engagements against US Carrier Battle Groups.  They’d launch their formidable missiles, and then they’d die (according to the Russian officers I spoke with back then).

Fast forward to today, when slow-moving UAVs are the rage. They’re weapons that work in confined sea spaces because of their design. It doesn’t take much to knock them out because of what they are, and lasers might be the solution – inexpensive, multi-use, short range. Expensive Navy Standard Missiles are not the solution.  Microwave weapons have also been used successfully against them.

The PLAN has a drone aircraft carrier, as does Iran. Will they work? It remains to be seen. I have doubts they will be able to operate in a situation where a single F-18G is in the area to counter them.

Shipborne lasers firing at close-range targets should be effective against both low-and-slow drones and high-flying ballistic missiles. It takes a lot of energy to operate them (more is better). In my opinion, the next CG(X) should have a nuclear power plant, irrespective of cost, to operate rail guns and lasers as they come online. Energy weapons definitely have their place, but as we’ve discussed on VM, they have limitations. At present, RAM/Sea Sparrow missiles and Phalanx/Goal Keeper gun systems work well. You run out of ammo and missiles eventually, but the laser doesn’t run out of light or power if a nuke is pushing them.

USN needs a lot of Tomahawk T-LAMs and Standard Missiles (of different varieties). Battery ships may be the solution to augment missile cells on combatants. If the PLAN goes to war with the US and allied navies, it will be interesting to see what works and what doesn’t. Since almost every scenario leads to a nuclear strike, we may not be around to evaluate it thoroughly.

 

Identify the Aircraft

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Parting Shot

 

End