Wuhan Death Toll

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The Headlines

Locals in Wuhan believe 42,000 people may have died in the coronavirus outbreak there not the 3,200 claimed by Chinese authorities. (more here)
I have no idea what the true numbers are. I doubt that we will ever know because it’s a state secret in China. But those numbers are more in line from what I heard from people on the ground in China.
It’s also premature to presume that the current numbers being reported by the Communist Chinese Party are accurate.

24 thoughts on “Wuhan Death Toll

  1. I read those high numbers of cell phone users disappearing and wonder how trustworthy that is.

  2. I've heard that too. My guess was somewhere around 30,000 dead in Wuhan. The British paper says 42,000. Maybe? Who knows? A lot of them were dumped into trenches and bulldozed over. Others were incinerated.

  3. Given China's population of a billion, and their government's willingness to see millions die, my guess the elites find this to be a pain in the ass but nothing to get worked up about.

  4. And that's just it. Conservatively:

    A 70% infection rate in a pop of 1.4 billion of which some 20-15% have to be hospitalized and a conservative 3% fatality rate of those in hospital?

    The numbers are huge and anyone reading the news, as opposed to the NWO satrapy which is the MSM, could see the writing on the wall in January as the CCP started welding people in their apartments.

    I hate to say it and hope I'm proved wrong, but I'll wager the monkey things are going to get… difficult.

  5. It will be interesting to see how the Wuhan Whoohoos will affect the PLA, PLAN and PLAAF and all the fun things they've been up to in the last two years.

    As to deaths in Communist China? So? We know that most of ChiCom, as modern as it looks, is a poop-hole of pollution, sickness, poor food, poor food handling, and stupidity.

    Only Seattle and New York City come close to being so low as most ChiCom major cities.

    I expect quite a few deaths in Leftist hell-holes, see previous sentence, but overall, here in the states? Yeahhhh, naaaahhhhh.

    But ChiCom? Hopefully this will have kicked them in the commie nads hard enough to keep them down for a while.

  6. All of these numbers on this crisis, makes my head spin. I was told there would be no math on “Virtual Mirage.”

    Mislead again, stupid me.

  7. Ah Ha! The New Look has arrived!

    Kinder, more gentle, tolerant and inclusive.

    Congrats on the migration.

  8. LL, I like the new format. I miss the blog roll you had; you were blog central for me. From your blog I could go to a whole bunch that I have come to enjoy. It was especially useful on my tablet as the booking marking there is dreadful.

    Is the Wuhan COVID-19 maybe worse that what it appears to be? Everything I read or hear that isn’t MSM shows numbers in this country that do not support that death rate. Is the virus something “special” for Asians causing them to have a higher fatality rate? Inquiring minds want to know what the real game is.

    1. I agree with BillB– you were blog central for me, for whenever I had a minute to actually see what the rest of the world was up to. 🙂 Other than missing the blog roll, I do like the new format! Well done. I’ve enjoyed catching up a bit on your happenings.

      1. 867-5309 – How are you doing. I was speaking to LSP on the phone the other day and he said that you and the kids were feeling under the weather. It’s nice to have you back haunting the blog. I am busy enough that I haven’t programmed the new blog roll in. It’s coming (so is the end to the plague – hahaha). Yeah, I started this new company selling personal protective equipment and COVID-19 blood test kits, etc. So far, so good. You know me, Jenny. I have the international connections to sell this stuff, so I’m doing it.

  9. You know, if you take the population of Wuhan of 11.2 Million ( https://populationof2019.com/population-of-wuhan-2019.html ), and say the same percentage get the virus as on the Diamond Princess (17%), that’s 1.9 million. Of that, use their “age-adjusted fatality rate” of 1.2% and you get 22,848 dying. That’s nowhere near the 42,000 or the official 3200.

    There’s no particular reason to think the city would have the same fatality rate, but it seems reasonable, as does your guess of around 30k.

    1. My guess is simply that. But remember that the Chinese scientists in Hubei Province (home to Wuhan) identified two mutations of COVID-19. While those were not clinically different, one ended up killing more effectively because their immune systems react more forcefully to it (Dan may want to comment in greater detail) and end up killing the patient that way. The mutation that is currently running in the US is the more benign of the two. So far. Viruses are known to continually mutate.

  10. Wow. What a change!
    I will get used to it.
    How do I get my icon to show?

    Anyway, that death toll makes more sense to me.

    1. China’s statistics are driven by the need for secrecy, Brig.

      Italy’s numbers of dead or who are under care are good, but they aren’t testing the whole population. I’ve heard from people there that “everyone has it” but they only people they test are people who go to the hospital. So even the Italian numbers are heavily skewed.

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