Opinion

Despite denials from USGOV that the US blew up the Nordstream pipelines (after FJB announced that we were going to blow up the Nordstream pipelines) and several other theories out there – I wanted to throw my cracker in the soup.

USS Kearsarge LHD 3

The Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), and embarked 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), have been operating in the Baltic Sea since May 2022 to strengthen interoperability with key NATO allies and partners. The ARG includes USS Kearsarge; the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ship USS Arlington (LPD 24); the Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship USS Gunston Hall and the USS Arleigh Burke (DDG 51). One could argue that their presence in the general area when the pipeline was sabotaged provided top cover for the work that went on below.

Embarked commands with the Kearsarge ARG include Amphibious Squadron SIX, 22nd MEU, Fleet Surgical Team 2, Fleet Surgical Team 4, Tactical Air Control Squadron 22, Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron 22, Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron 28, Assault Craft Unit 2, Assault Craft Unit 4, Naval Beach Group 2, Beach Master Unit 2 and 2 SEAL platoons. US Submarines that may have been attached to the ARG are never publically announced, though in general terms, US Submarines don’t prefer to operate in the shallow and confining Baltic, Gulf of Finland, etc.

The question of US Allies acting in concert with (as cat’s paws) US military forces is one that the Pentagon and the White House did not deny, but whether the British operated an Advanced Seal Delivery Vehicle ASDV modified for operations such as that or whether US sailors did is moot. Whether the US deployed a Seawolf Class submarine, specifically designed to do that sort of work, or another platform was used to manage the work is also moot. The US has been doing advanced work on underwater cables and pipelines since Ivy Bells in the 1970s. It’s not exactly a new mission. Between the USS Halibut, its technological successor, USS Parche, and its technological successor USS Seawolf (class), the information about the US military capacity for this sort of operation has been in the public domain for many years.

I realize that the US blames Russia for literally everything from bad weather to failed US energy policy, but in this case, it simply doesn’t pass the smell test. The joint project with Germany was not poorly maintained. The project was vital to both German and Russian economic interests and it’s unlikely that either nation would sabotage the pipeline. When you look at who was there at the time, who had the capacity to do the work, and who (in this case none other than President FJ Biden) announced that they were going to destroy it, there is really only one conclusion that I can come to. Keep in mind that I could be wrong. It’s only an opinion.

As an aside but still, to the general point, the Russians built the Project 10831 submarine Losharik (Russian: Лошарик), in an effort to match US Navy capabilities in this arena. On 1 July 2019, a fire broke out on the vessel. Fourteen of the crew were killed by inhalation of smoke or toxic fumes. Seven of those who died held the rank of first-rank captain and two were recipients of the Hero of the Russian Federation medal. Submarine commander Denis Dolonsky was among those killed. The presence of such a high-ranking crew on a single vessel was an indication that the vessel was carrying out a high-risk task at the time of the accident. Russian account of the accidentLosharik is still in drydock undergoing repairs.

 

Another Opinion

(link) Who blew up the Kerch bridge? The referenced article (h/t Claudio) suggests a truck bomb. That doesn’t hold water. Another speculation involved a missile attack. That doesn’t reflect the damage either.

Ukraine didn’t take credit for it, but it was a nice piece of work. It took out most of the road bridge and the rail bridge that link Russia and Crimea.

My money is on combat swimmers (comparable to what a SEAL squad or maybe platoon would do). It’s not a comprehensive demo, so I doubt that it’s a US effort, but possibly somebody trained in the West? They detonated the railroad deck in the hopes that the oil in the train cars would have taken out a span or two but that didn’t work. They also left one road span intact, but it’s likely damaged. The post-blast investigation would take about 2 minutes to make a finding. The Russians should have people qualified to make that determination. I’d bet good money that the Russians don’t have an Inshore Undersea Warfare Unit (now called Maritime Expeditionary Security Force in the US Navy & Marine Corps) assigned to defend the bridge and approaches.

The Russians are exceptionally sloppy. They didn’t use to be like this — Not this bad.

 

Wickedness

 

Re-Elected

 

Housekeeping

Some have asked me why I blog. It is original content, mixed with observations of the world and statements of others. In the long run, there may not be much of a point other than the Yeates quote that I trot out from time to time, “No law nor duty bade me fight, nor public man nor cheering crowds, etc.” it is simply to document that not everyone was woke, and not everyone drank the filthy kool-aid.

 

Black Handguns Matter

Tokarev TT, 7.62×25mm

 

Up Armor

Sherman Firefly and an M4A2(105) in Holland.

 

Retro

French soldier in a well-sandbagged position at Pontaury using a Lebel rifle fitted with a periscope sight. Aisne Area, France. c. 1917

36 COMMENTS

  1. Not everybody in the Jim Jones compound drank the kool aid willingly. That is where I feel we are now, with some people trying to force it upon us. Thank you for being a beacon of sanity in a sea of woke.

  2. Nice to know that in a changing world where nothing seems certain or predictable, we can still count on the LAPD to be a corrupt, incompetent bunch of thugs, at least.

    Kudos to the supply sergeant who got those Shermans the “extra track” they needed.

    -Kle.

  3. Your take on the Nord Stream, with a host of speculative options out there from the day it occurred, has always sounded to me as the most likely. But we’ll never know.

    LAPD – Yeah, nothing to see here. Another Good v. Evil, where the good gets taken out…again.

    New Orleans mayor, another bum using her position to enrich herself…and they keep voting her in for the freebies, that aren’t free.

    Might be pretty obvious that your blog in my go to, gets me straight away into thinking-mode with information I can trust over a cup of covfefe as I gear up for the day’s tasks. I rely on your experience and ‘take’ on things…and the varied content is great. Yours has plugged me into other’s blogs that are also necessary reading.

    • There is always the caveat that I could miss the point completely. In the case of some of these blog topics, I do have more experience with than others. Hopefully I’m wise enough to dodge the topics I know nothing about…like the fashion industry where MRSLL was an executive.

      • There’s a cellphone video that apparently shows a truck blowing up…..not very clear or definitive, but a fireball erupts right where the truck was. We are truly in Machiavellian times. “Putin shelled his own Nuclear power plant! Putin blew up his own pipeline! Now Putin blew up his own bridge!” Crazy like a fox. Me head is spinning.

        • As Wanker Joe and Merrick Garland (‘Merrick’…what’s in a name says a lot) sends their Frivolous Beyond Inanity crew to yet another Christian mans home with guns drawn and zero probable cause, refusing to show the warrant. Modern Gestapo in action to instill fear in anyone who oppose their evil-doing.

          These people are so deranged words can’t describe their ill-logic. At some point FBI agents will step up to a house only to find themselves getting shot at…maybe they’ll rethink their immoral orders.

  4. As usual, a well laid out opinion as to the pipeline.

    One question: If it were true that the U.S. did in fact hit that pipeline somehow, shouldn’t the environmental wackos be up in arms over this incident? Strange, but I just haven’t seen anything from them as to what in theory is an environmental catastrophe

    • I didn’t know that anyone considered renaming the airport used by FJB to commute to the office. Airports should be named for great people. As a trivial example, St. Louis Lambert International Airport is the primary commercial airport serving metropolitan St. Louis. Commonly referred to as Lambert Field or simply Lambert, it is the largest and busiest airport in the state of Missouri. There is also Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Washington DC.

    • Nobody will know until somebody takes a closer look. High-order explosives leave a very particular signature because the metal will shatter rather than bend with stress. They also leave chemical traces.

  5. “The joint project with Germany was not poorly maintained”
    For once I’m going to disagree with you. If poor practices equal poor maintenance too many people who understand how pipelines work have detailed improper practices. Did that cause the ruptures?

    What is suspicious are the geographic locations of the ruptures. Poor practices on the part of the Russians would more likely result in ruptures closer to Russia logic suggests.

    If forensic evidence of high explosives causing the rupture comes forth, by creditable sources, then I will eat my words.

    • They ruptured between Sweden, Poland, and Germany, where saboteurs would expect less of a Russian presence… Provided that the three ruptures resulted from sabotage and not simply from an unfortunate cascade of events.

  6. Whatever your reason for blogging, I’m glad you do. I get a lot of good information here, both from you as well as the commenters here, most of whom are smarter than I am and write better as well.

    • There are a lot of unknowns, but I doubt poor maintenance. It wouldn’t take much of an effort to take one of those oil-owned submersibles that dive deep and drop it to 300′ to take photos and samples and that would end the speculation.

      • With blogging and bloggers, it’s important to consider their biases. In my case, as a former Naval Officer trained in clandestine warfare (among other things), I have a realistic idea of national capacity. What you can and can’t do, or are unlikely to do, is part of my DNA and I have a difficult time shedding it. As an armchair has been, there is a certain delight (as I mentioned before) in wargaming scenarios based on national intent and capabilities. Take my opinions in that light. The same would be true of some realistic capabilities of various intelligence community actors, and of law enforcement, and all of the other things I’ve done. For example, I viewed George Floyd as a dirtbag, and from the way the officer restrained him, I thought “no big deal. Control the head and you are able to control the body. It turns out that the officer didn’t kill George, and he would have expired of a drug OD all on his own if left alone. Too bad the police didn’t know that. They could have gone 10-8 and he would have crawled off into a hole and expired by his own hand, unmourned and forgotten.

    • I can’t say. That would be the best move. A demo train that would take out several spans of the rail. bridge with C-4 simultaneously and drop the whole thing. The road bridge would have been more of a problem.

      Did they come in by means of a combat rubber raiding craft like a Zodiac? There was traffic along the bridge, how did they approach if that was the mechanism? Nobody saw an E&E but they could have scuba’d out or used a Drager if they were available.

  7. 300′ is well within mixed gas diving range, so a good look at the damage should be relatively easy. Why, after all this time, no one has done it raises plenty of other questions.

    • Yes, but submersibles are better for operating at that depth primarily because bottom time isn’t a problem. Most of them have manipulator arms that can torch off samples, and can carry large chunks to the surface without having to screw with lift bags.

      • Can’t forget the timing of the explosion(s) either, almost as if some operative head in DC said “Okay, we need a distraction that works in our favor, cue the Nordstream pipeline Op.”

        What are the odds both pipelines had mishaps at roughly the same time?

  8. The TT-33 is one of those things that just flat-out works when you need it to. Some time back, saw a news report from one of the former Soviet republics of a big cop marching a miscreant along by the scruff of the neck with a Tokarev screwed into the space just behind his ear. The cop had his thumb on the hammer ready to pull ‘er back and let ‘er go if need be. I had to laugh.

  9. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men

    That approach has been a complete failure, so instead here’s a brainstorm. Each neighborhood builds a “liberty bilge pump” to identify and remove tyrannical people. This is a building the size of a convenience store which openly and notoriously manufactures and sells useful items like machine guns and medical-grade opiates. Anyone committing treason (“owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere”) by attacking it is sent to a reeducation camp in Alaska, to live at their own expense until they provide evidence they won’t reoffend. “Attack” means not just assaulting it with rifles, but the reconnaissance and photographic intelligence that precedes that. The area around the liberty bilge would stay free of cameras and loiterers, including protesters and media, with a perimeter large enough nobody can track who goes in or out.

    The reeducation camp in Alaska would not be a battleground of racial street gangs like government prisons are today. Instead, it would be a peaceful and orderly place, and anyone who disturbs the quiet contemplation of Austrian economics and world history would be transported to New Zealand.

    Soon the US population would consist of libertarians, conservatives, hippies, artists, Amish, Quakers, fundamentalist LDS polygamists, and expat business communities of all kinds, all of who can live together peacefully as neighbors.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coventry_(short_story)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Weapon_Shops_of_Isher

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