Comment: (graphic) I lose confidence in leaders who are lectured to by giant space lizards. It reminds me too much of Old NFO’s Rimworld series. And for you who are slow on the uptake, that’s a shameless plug for his books.
What if there was only ONE pill?
Trade Talks
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, “It’s important to understand how quickly we were able to agree… perhaps the differences were not as large as was thought.” That sounds pretty dovish.
If anything resembling a deal can be struck in a single weekend, one is tempted to assume that either (a) much is still unaddressed and both sides want to slow down, or (b) the problem was never as serious as advertised (the first scenario seems more plausible).
I am skeptical that anything of grand consequence was hammered out during two days of banter. Crypto and equity futures are ripping this Sunday evening to celebrate potential tariff—or consumption‑tax—moderation. The macro metric that matters most, however, is the 10‑year Treasury yield, which waits for no one and is set by the global market. Treasury Secretary Bessent has a boatload of debt to roll and needs that yield below 4 %. Last month underscored the point: when the 10‑year spiked above 4.5 % right after Liberation Day, the Administration immediately backed down on part of its tariff plan. President Trump noted that capital markets had become “skittish.”
Markets vote—especially the sovereign‑bond market, a real‑time report card.
A complicated series of legislative steps also lies ahead; their success or failure will define the second Trump presidency and whether the spending curve bends (CO is tempering his hopes). The Administration can ill afford the economic or political fog of a full‑blown global trade war while hunting votes on Capitol Hill.
China can’t afford a trade war either. Beijing’s own macro cracks—property, demographics, capital flight—make a prolonged slug‑fest equally unattractive. Both sides need a short‑term victory, which is the rational exit or at least a pause to catch their breath.
Both will claim victory, since neither has the stomach to learn what an actual trade war would cost (and anyone who claims to know is a fool). Whatever emerges today, people will decide who achieved what, with what skill or fear, largely regardless of the statement’s fine print.
Expect the communiqué to let each side declare victory. Trump critics will sneer; Art‑of‑the‑Deal romantics will swoon; the details will move neither camp.
We need to screw with China to the extent it doesn’t derail the broader Trump agenda. Is there wisdom in an aggressive, multi‑front battle led by the world’s reserve‑currency issuer and most prosperous nation, railing that everyone has been ripping it off for decades? Focus entirely on China and leverage the fact that many other countries, especially Europe, are worried about the CCP juggernaut and share America’s concerns.
Bullet Points:
** From SECTRES Bessent: Yesterday, we had very productive meetings alongside USTradeRep Jamieson Greer with President Keller-Sutter and Vice President Parmelin of the Swiss Confederation. I am glad that we have agreed on accelerated trade talks, and we expect that a detailed Swiss proposal will be submitted to Ambassador Greer by next week. Following President Trump’s agreement with the United Kingdom this past Thursday, we are optimistic about the speed of these negotiations. Thanks to President Trump’s policies, Swiss companies have indicated their interest in investing CHF 150-200 billion in new U.S. investments, and we look forward to our continued talks.
** The Shadow Wolves of southern Arizona are a Native American tactical unit assigned to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. They use centuries-old tracking skills to detect transnational criminal organizations that operate around the southern border.
** Culture Corner – Why is there a 12-foot-tall bronze statue of an ample black woman in Times Square? (right) Having a statue based on skin colour and being overweight makes no sense to me. What if the Thai people erected a statue of a fat, white, balding, drunk, 55-year-old male tourist in the center of Bangkok? Would people marvel at it? Would it be better if the fat, bald, white, drunk male were naked?
** DIE COMMIE DIE!! – It’s what I love about the Warthog.
** Serial liar, CCP shill, and professional beta male Tim Walz–widely considered the worst vice presidential pick in American history–further humiliated himself and democrats with hyperbolic blather–the kind of gaslighting that helped Democrats lose the election. Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) said Wednesday on MSNBC’s “The Briefing” that President Donald Trump will wear a military uniform soon because he was taking the United States toward authoritarianism. What should an American presidential military uniform look like? The Army is the senior service in the US, so Army Green – maybe six stars (Pres. Trump would prefer gold to silver) or more like a black Ukrainian tracksuit with sneakers – favored by the American Left? The King of England (KC3) wears an admiral’s uniform because that’s the British senior service. Or should he stick to a business suit – the emblem of Wall Street and capitalism? Red power tie?
** Sailing with EdB. “Lower the boom.”
** It’s not your grandpa’s AH-1.
** Mud Bugs – “Come rain, shine, sleet or snow, Louisiana’s mudbug farmers always work hard to deliver quality food,” Sen. John Kennedy said. “My Crawdad Act would ensure they have access to the emergency support they need.” The mud bugs are misunderstood and underappreciated by many non-crawfish consumers. I understand why Sen. Kennedy is supporting an industry in a state he represents, but shouldn’t there be a financial lid on the sort of support the mudbuggers can claim from the US Treasury?
** “Man’s timid heart is bursting with the things he must not say, For the Woman that God gave him isn’t his to give away.” – Kipling, The Female of the Species
The New National Center for Homeless Veterans
(Fox News) President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a national center for homeless veterans with redirected funds previously spent on services for illegal aliens, Fox News Digital has learned. The president’s order directs the Secretary of Veterans Affairs to establish the National Center for Warrior Independence on the Veterans Affairs campus in West Los Angeles.
Los Angeles has approximately 3,000 homeless veterans — more than any other city in the country, and accounting for about 10% of all homeless veterans in America, according to the White House.
America has been continually at war somewhere since World War II. Some have been small wars, some have been big wars. Some deployments have been easy for those service members, and others have been exceptionally difficult. People react to these situations differently. You can’t say how you will respond before you’re dropped into the pool’s deep end. Sometimes you think you’ll be okay, and then you’re triggered. We send CHILDREN to war. We’re responsible for what happens to them. We are not responsible for the lives and well-being of illegal aliens.
The Coming Week
There is an interesting week ahead for the global economy and markets, including China-US tariff talks, the follow-up to the Federal Reserve policy meeting, and data. Pres. Trump and friends will be in the Middle East, pressing the flesh.
The outcome of this weekend’s China-US tariff talks in Switzerland will be assessed based on what it reveals about China’s appetite for pain, America’s fear of “empty shelves,” and the way each country prioritizes the long-term objectives of trade policy. It will also be significant for many other countries, where there is already concern about the diversion of Chinese exports to their markets.
Key data releases include: US CPI inflation, retail sales, and the UMich survey; Eurozone industrial production data, European Commission Spring Forecasts, and Japan CPI inflation and UK wage inflation.”
Sheep Bridge (Arizona)
Arizona destinations can be awe-inspiring and historic, or not.
Sheep Bridge spans a remote and scenic reach of the Verde River north of Horseshoe Dam. A suspension bridge constructed in 1944 to minimize loss of sheep when crossing the river was replaced with a higher pedestrian bridge in 1989. To reach this bridge, travel on Interstate 17 north of Phoenix, exit on Bloody Basin Road, and continue east. The other option is to go up through Seven Springs north of Cave Creek. I would highly recommend driving a high-clearance 4×4 vehicle. As you approach the bridge, the road is ‘unimproved’ and is not friendly. A normal car would take a beating. I don’t know if there are Gila Monsters in the area.
If you don’t want to get your kicks at the Sheep Bridge, there are other options…
E-Axels in a Land Cruiser?
I have a buddy who is doing these conversions. Very cool. This is an interesting piece on engine maintenance on EVs – that you may not have considered.
Identify the Aircraft
1
106 built
2
Four-seat aircraft – 219 built
3
101 built (all variants)
Parting Shot
End
Identify the Aircraft:
1. Embraer EMB 121 Xingu
2. Morane-Saulnier MS.760 Paris
3. Nord 3202
Fast, Surly. Very fast.
Trade talks – when I first heard the China agreement announced I wondered if Greer was clutching a piece of paper while saying “Trade in our time!” ?
Yeah. They seem eager…
To any Sabaton and B5 fans out there, here is a mixed genre:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eo58FxrWUXY&t=1s
Great find, Frank! In Valen’s name, the White Stars arrived! My favorite Sabaton.
Me too.
From what I read, the trade negotiations are ongoing, and with China’s corrupting influence on many in the capitol, I don’t see a lot of willingness to push back hard on China. Too many sold out their country, and too many of those that should oversee the prosecution of traitors are also compromised. I may be wrong, but from my nose-bleed seat, the game is fixed, and the fans will be disappointed.
China is on its back leg – in a way – and the world is waiting to see what we’ll do. As their factories spin down, the pressure on Xi increases. President Trump is under pressure to do something with the Chinese, but he has a lot more on his plate than just them. They’re trying to get cozy with Russia, and there will be some deals, but Russia is a one-commodity economy – oil. And the price of oil is dropping, as you’ve noticed. Brent Crude opened this morning at 64. It’s now at 66 as I type. The Russians (who buy and sell oil in US Dollars) have sanctions to deal with and have to deeply discount what they sell, so the profit margins for them are very tight. The Russians do have significant gold reserves, but they are hoarding those like dragons.
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China will play games with the point of origin on any manufactured goods that they can, but no ships are leaving China for the USA. Their fentanyl business is being disrupted.
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I advise optimism.
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There will be some sort of agreement with the Chinese but President Trump considers us to be at war with them in the same sense that they’ve been at war with us for fifty years, which is to say that there is a change in the USA posture. That’s a good thing. Not business as usual.
As I examine the deal more closely, it smells like a liquidity management event, possibly designed to prevent an emerging market currency event or stabilize U.S. Treasury markets under growing stress.
“(and anyone who claims to know is a fool)”
based upon the way I understand world hx, trade wars just result in shooting wars, loss of military and civilian life, territorial changes, +++
can I wear the cap?
If you wear the cap, you need to sit on the stool and face the wall, and what fun would that be?
Trade Chicken: Gotta start somewhere, and China flinched. Yet PDJT and his A-Team allowed them to ‘save face’, basically announcing without fanfare, unlike what the Dems and Pink R’s would do (like the juveniles they are), which got us in this tariff deficit in the first place. SISU MAGA WINNING! Is refreshing.
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More Winning: Today the remaining Hamas captive will be released. Bongino released a longish statement effectively saying “patience”.
Banner weekend of “winning”…anyone saying otherwise, or couching these America First efforts need to go sit in the back of the room and shut the hay up.
***
Signage overload in that picture…discovered when arriving in Colorado from PA moons ago there are a lot fewer roads out West, and getting from ‘Point A to Point B’ was…different, just couldn’t go to the next turn if you missed your road….because there isn’t one.
***
Cool Bridge, apparently the road in is kept rough for a reason. My rancher neighbor has all manner of heavy equipment yet his main ranch road is a mess…”Keeps out the riff-raff, especially county people looking to snoop around or use our road as a shortcut.” Heh.
Clarification: Bongino’s statement was to quell the impatient noise about “why haven’t indictments been made yet!”. 100+ days in to unravel the tangled web of deceit, especially by CongressCritters in bed with all manner of foreign entities, is spitting in the ocean…takes time. WTP have been Pavlov Dog’d into believing nothing will come of anything and the thieves and crooks will get a free pass as they have historically. Dan said, “notsofast”. Patel et al are working on it. I am hopeful, even if blindly so.
Having spent much of my life in that business, you have to get your ducks in a row for court, which is different than announcing a victory and moving on. Bongino was once in the protection business, which is different than the prosecution business. Patel understands the courts. They have a lot to reorganize and the reality of living in that swamp is different than talking about it. They’ll do fine.
Rome wasn’t burnt in a day, and Patel and Company will have to destroy the village in order to save it. I can live with that prospect.
You and me both…certainly take most of it down to the frame.
“Beta male tim waltz” doesn’t know his butt from first base, let alone where the ball park is.
I know. He claims to have children. Was he able to manage the act to bring them into the world? A DNA test would put that to rest.
His daughter must be the golden fruit of his loins, given her recent rant on why she is forgoing graduate school.
https://nypost.com/2025/03/31/us-news/tim-walzs-daughter-is-skipping-grad-school-over-college-not-supporting-protesters/
Only a DNA test will prove parentage. A look at her undergraduate grades might show another reason for skipping grad school.
Culture Corner
I, for one, have no problem with this representation of BO’s husband exposed for all to view at the “Crossroads of NYC”
more emblematic of what NY has become
I was in Up-State NY recently and it wasn’t so bad. NYC is something completely different and I avoid the place.
Keen Valley, God’s country…NYC is very far away despite their long reach in wrecking the 90% of the State.
I had the pleasure of living in the Finger Lakes in my late teens:
it was G-d’s Country only marred by bearded prosletyzers spouting socialism
in the northeast the state was being infiltrated by the same swimming Lake Champlain infiltrating from Vermont
and in the far west on the shores of Erie the idiom was Polish
I was only there for a week last year, so I didn’t delve, but everyone far upstate seemed to be more or less the same as everyone else in the US. NYC is a different animal, and though I haven’t been in Albany for a long time, it’s a desperate ghetto.
Your opener…swore that is (was, RIP) Donald Sutherland neatly trimmed. Viewed as a metaphor (assuming Walz the Nudge is correct), that would be PDJT in his 6th term as a military outfitted type negotiating with aliens for mining rare earth materials on Mars.
Your opening graphic. Heh.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hnBp7x2QAE
True – I had the Gorns in mind. Though they’re different in the new and improved modern Star Trek – that I don’t watch because it’s homosexuals and black people in outer space. I really was trying to pimp Old NFO’s series.
I’m finished editing my short story book and have spoken with a friend who wants to do the cover (Jules is vacationing in the Med for a month). I thought that if I pimped his work, he might consider pimping mine. The new short story collection, “Conduct Unbecoming” should be out as soon as the cover work is complete. Things move slowly.
Yeah!
I know, finally. Now on to the Civil War (sort of) series, already in progress.
😄😄
Thanks for boosting the signal!
“ I lose confidence in leaders who are lectured to by giant space lizards.”
What’s wrong with giant space lizards?
I’m sure they could be our second greatest allies, if only we gave them a chance. Stop Lizard Hate!
Give pizza chants?
Sailing with EdB.
Lee shores are no fun.
Tell me about it!