The Russian Surge in Ukraine (opinion)

LL, speaking at Interpol GS.

A total of ~19.4% of Ukraine is occupied by the Russian Army, ~0.02% more than at the end of June.

Russia plays a waiting game in Ukraine because they can and they lack the capacity to mount a successful offensive – having attempted to do that several times this summer. Their supply lines are short and they figure that they can wait out the winter and see what 2023 brings.

Ukraine lacks the muscle and the will to lose men in a general counteroffensive and they’re generally content to sit things out and receive equipment from benefactors as the US meets the Ukrainian national payroll and the juice that the oligarchs require to cover their payments on yachts, foreign homes, and mistresses.

The American public is being played by the media, but we’re stupid like that. After all, we stood still while a demented crook and a really stupid whore were installed as Pres and Veep didn’t we? We believed Fauci and Birx while they laughed behind the scenes knowing that the vax wouldn’t work and was likely toxic – and Big Pharma laughed too, all the way to the bank.

All in all, it’s a satisfactory arrangement for all concerned. The US defense establishment is building new weapons systems to replace those deployed. Some cynics have referred to this as welfare for the middle class. America buys its own debt these days (fueling inflation) and prints money, backed by a wink and a promise, in the certainty that the dollar will be the world’s reserve currency forever.


From Strategy Page (h/t Claudio)

Russian political and military leaders seem surprised at the extent to which Russian soldiers are refusing to fight in Ukraine. Perhaps someday these leaders will realize that this should not have been a surprise. While Russian leaders earlier made much of reforming the military and upgrading its equipment, they ignored fundamentals like willingness to fight. In modern war, the infantry is a minority (10 to 25 percent of troops) but comprises over 80 percent of the casualties.

After more than a century of lies, deceit, poor leadership, and heavy losses, the young Russian men who end up in the infantry, as well as their families, are refusing to be killed in another unnecessary war in Ukraine. (more here)


Fleeing Ukraine to War-Torn Portland, OR?

A Ukrainian woman living in crime-ridden Portland shares bloody video of bullet-shattered face after being caught in a crossfire of shooting: Says family in war zone fear for HER safety (more here)

Katie Guzenko, 27, was driving in her car during the afternoon when she was suddenly shot. The bullet shattered the glass, pierced through her nose and then out again through the driver’s side window.

Horrific footage from July 20 shows the woman hyperventilating with her own crimson blood gushing over her face before she realizes what has happened to her.

Thick layers of blood pour from her wounds in the immediate aftermath of the shooting, seen in a clip recorded by Katie in her car.

Selecting Portland as a sanctuary from Ukraine – or Chicago’s South Side – or any other democrat-run city is a really bad choice. 


VDH Speaks

Accordingly, many European Union governments followed the advice of green experts. They eagerly shut down coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants to transition immediately to “renewable energy.”

Most citizens were afraid to object that in cloudy, cold Germany solar panels were not viable methods of electrical generation — especially in comparison to the country’s vast coal deposits and its large, model nuclear power industry.

As a result, German government officials warn that this winter, in 19th-century fashion, families will have to burn wood — the dirtiest of modern fuels — to endure the cold. And there is further talk of “warm rooms,” where like pre-civilizational tribal people, the elderly will bunch together within a designated heated room to keep alive.

Sri Lanka may be the first modern nation to adopt deliberate policies that have led to mass hunger and bankruptcy. The government, for a variety of reasons, listened to foreign advocates of back-to-nature organic farming, specifically outright abandonment of highly effective synthetic fertilizers and pesticides.

The result was an endemic crop failure. Cash crops for export failed. Widespread hunger followed. Without foreign exchange, it became impossible to import key staples like food and fuel.

Sri Lanka once had a per capita income twice that of nearby India. Now it cannot feed or fuel itself.

You should read the whole article – linked at the caption above.


h/t Frank


From the Far Side


  1. VDH is always worth reading/listening to. The man has a lot of wisdom and you have to admire people like him and Jordan Peterson for trying to push back against the useless horde.

    Portland. She probably did not know how bad it was there since the news media doesn’t accurately report anything that reflects badly on the leftists.

    Russian troops. What happens when U.S. troops start doing the same thing in large numbers. Once leaders lose their credibility to the extent the organization suffers yo don’t get it back easily. It is a slippery slope and hard to regain what the leadership as squandered. It will take years to regain the trust of the soldiers, seamen, and airman.

    • SECDEF Austin has openly said that they don’t want straight white officers and all promotions will favor diversity and grievance candidates. They’ve established a sort of commissar program in the units they’re worried about (mostly special forces) where zampolits oversee the education and political worthiness of cadres. It’s not an exaggeration, it’s a fact. Reading Commander Salamander’s excellent blog on “Diversity Thursday” will fill in the blanks for any of this blog’s readership.

      • PS – I seriously do not wish to imply that non-white people are inherently unqualified, but when the CRITERIA for advancement or selection is based on a gender grievance or racial make-up, you’re in deep shit.

        • And that is what I loathe; us being in deep shit. I really see no way out but through and honestly that scares me for the kids and grandkids.

          Today will be a day or recoil therapy just cause. Have some 45 ACP 185 gr that are supposed to be moving at about 1600 fps. Time to get out the chrony and check. That will certainly improve my morale.

          • I’m going to jump on the Ducati and ride to Winslow to do some last-minute shopping. I may take a shot of my bike, parked on The Corner. Should I take one of the granddaughters and ride two-up?

          • Pictures of cute kids from an obviously loving family are always great. My vote is for a two up ride.

        • As a non-white person, I didn’t infer that from what you wrote above. Anyone who does already had “nonwhite inferiority” in his pointed head, or is looking for an excuse to be offended so that he can play The Victimhood Game.

          In a similar vein, the term “self-loathing [victim]” is a slur used by the bad eggs of a group to slander, and attempt to intimidate, those individuals nominally of that group who have the courage to openly consider and discuss that group objectively.

  2. Europe made it’s own energy bed, avidly. Some of the Usual Traitors in DC helped, of course.

    Wood isn’t actually the dirtiest modern fuel, that’d be peat. Which they burn to generate electricity in parts of Scandinavia, hilariously.


    • Peat is very dirty.

      Depending on the selection of wood and how you burn it, it’s not necessarily “dirty”. Coal gasification plans are quite clean. But if you’re woke, you wouldn’t burn either because it would hasten our demise from four years to three – or something like that.

    • The Battle of Falkirk didn’t happen quite the way that the film depicted it, but the fact was that the outcome was not the least as Edward expected. In Ukraine, the Russians have a quarter of a million men in theater, backed up by a very short supply line that’s impossible to interdict because it means “war with Russia”. It’s true that they could pull a 1917 move, kill the officers and walk off the field, but it’s unlikely. Russians on the defensive in the winter is not the scenario that you’d want to fight even if the infantry is unhappy – Hitler and Napoleon could attest to this.

      The Russians forgot and attacked during the Rasputitsa last spring, but they won’t make that mistake again.

  3. That Katie Guzenko is one lucky girl. Considering how close that was to going through her temples or both eyes, I’d say there’s a pretty big chance a distance of an inch or two would have been either life-altering or life-ending. When you get that much luck, do you play the lotto figuring there’s more luck or do you figure you used up your luck and not play?

    On Germany – and the way most of the west is behaving, including Brandon et al – I think of AOC when she said something like we just have to invent things that haven’t been invented yet and then everything will be fine. Ending all fossil fuel use with no reliable alternative is like jumping out of a plane without a parachute fully expecting someone to invent something to save your life before you hit the ground.

    • Katie was unlucky to move to Portland but lucky to get out of Ukraine.

      My sister is a hospital administrator in Portland and loves her job. She worked long and hard to get it. Her husband is retired Portland PD, definitely not woke. They want to move because of how it is there but are tied to her job for now.

      I worry about her.

  4. You clean up pretty good Larry! 🙂 Yes, Portland IS a war zone these days, along with most of the dems metromesses… Austin didn’t get SECDEF by his skills, he got it as a grievance candidate. Army folks that I know could NOT believe he’d been selected, and still don’t… sigh

  5. Can the US act afford to act in anyway where the dollar might not actually BE the world’s reserve currency forever?
    We’re on the tiger’s back and can’t let go….

  6. Russian political and military leaders seem surprised at the extent to which Russian soldiers are refusing to fight in Ukraine
    Begs the question, how well will woke indoctrinated US military fight when they have near zero respect for their “leaders”?

  7. As I used to hear in my youth…”War is good business….invest YOUR son!”. It’s all a grand con game.

    From the Ukraine to…..Portland? Geeez…..

    If this Administartion has it’s way, we’ll all be back in the Pioneer Days again. Just happy we’re surrounded by communities that still value The Old Days.

  8. They’re saying now that maybe 30% of the weapons sent to Ukraine have reached the boots on the ground. Demorats: “No problemo, we’ll just send another 5 billion.” Twilight zone.

    • Yeah, I don’t see a problem with that. I’m sure that all the weapons will arrive at the front one day. The Ukrainians are managing security and nobody doubts their integrity – if they do, they’re racist.

  9. “The American public is being played by the media, but we’re stupid like that. After all, we stood still while a demented crook and a really stupid whore were installed as Pres and Veep didn’t we? We believed Fauci and Birx while they laughed behind the scenes knowing that the vax wouldn’t work and was likely toxic – and Big Pharma laughed too, all the way to the bank.”

    Ain’t that the truth.

      • When I read your comment to LSP I immediately thought of a TDY trip to Grand Forks in late January. -30 degrees F, 25 knot winds and David Lee Roth singing “It’s Just like Living in Paradise” on the damn radio at least 20 times per day. Yeah, just like living in paradise indeed.

        • I don’t love life at all when it’s that cold outside. Or when the snowfall exceeds the capacity of my snow blower to deal with it.


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