The Monday Moment

Blog Post

 

 

Belarus

There is a lot of information floating around that Belarus will invade Ukraine this coming week. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine assessed that the threat level was high for “an offensive from the Republic of Belarus in the Volyn direction,” according to Ukrainian online newspaper Pravda.

Belarus has a standing army of 48,000,  most of whom are conscripts.  They have 300,000 reserves but most believe that the reserves are less ready for prime time than the 18-year-old conscripts.

One objective of the Belarus army would be the capture of the nuclear power station at Rivne.

This may be a bluff to tie up Ukrainian troops on the Belarus border. Time will tell.

 

Russian Trouble

(Fox News) Amid reports of low morale among the Russian ranks, Ukrainian defense officials claimed Sunday to have obtained documents that indicate Russia has ordered the deployment of young conscripts to Ukraine.

Putin has repeatedly told his people that the army is not utilizing conscripts, but photos of the documents posted online indicate that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has signed an order to the contrary. The deployment will see Yunarmia conscripts aged 17 and 18 pushed to the front lines in Ukraine.

Cannon fodder for when they run out of Syrians.

 

The Beast (1988 Film) Captured the Russian tanker mindset.

A Russian T-64 crew in Afghanistan is trying to make a go of it, alone, in enemy territory.

(Jason Patrick Harvey) “Well, sir, the roadwheel’s cracked. Kaminski drank our brake fluid. We’re low on petrol. The battery’s low. We’re losing oil. If the engine heats up it’s gonna seize. The terrain is obviously against us. We have no rations. The Mujas behind us doesn’t seem to run on rations, petrol, or anything we know of. And they have an RPG. Their aim is getting better. Sir.”

**

(George Dzundza) “We’re safe in here. My tanks have been hit by everything. In Mongolia once, RPG, direct hit. Commander, gunner, and turret went flying. I drove the rest of the tank back to our lines. These tanks today are better. Much better.”

**

(George Dzundza) “You know our standing orders. Out of commission, become a pillbox. Out of ammo, become a bunker. Out of time, become heroes.”

 

A Cautionary Note

 

Meme of the Day

 

Historical Corner

23 thoughts on “The Monday Moment

  1. Everyone is talking about Russia, Ukraine and maybe Belarus joining in, but I wonder if we are seeing China making their move with the various covid lockdowns they’re doing at the moment. Causing headaches for the supply chain to the west, while having a plausible reason that it’s not an outright act. I don’t have the knowledge of the area or the logistics involved to really make a call though.

    Of course everyone appears to think they’ll make their move on Taiwan if they want to open another front, but I’m inclined to think it will end up being a more diplomatic solution. My understanding is there’s a fair bit of intermarriage, I could see a graduated reintegration into greater China instead of an outright invasion if that’s true.

    As a side note, I stumbled across this interesting tool for comparing the sizes of various countries in a blog talking about the invasion. I didn’t realise Australia is similar in size to the contiguous 48 of the USA, nor that it’s only about 1/3 the size of Russia. Makes quite the visual impact to see just how small many of the European states are in comparison. https://thetruesize.com/

    Oh, and the green stupidity rolls on here too, the plans to close two more coal fired power plants has been brought forward to 2025 due to the government signing up for net neutral. Not getting replaced with any base load generation either, it’s all wind farms and solar. Idiots.

    1. China is far more fragile than it appears. I’m not saying that it’s a paper tiger. It could take Taiwan militarily if it wanted to but as with many Ukrainian cities, the place would just be a rock with the detritus of war on it. Not much of a victory.

      The Chinese watch the reaction of the world to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and it’s not complacency – as Europe re-arms and strengthens itself. The Russian incapacity to take Ukraine on the timetable it set out, it’s military setbacks against a location that it had great intelligence on, must have them thinking. It was supposed to be a cakewalk and they’re losing a lot of people and machinery.

      The PRC hoped to present themselves as a favorable option for Taiwan to join voluntarily, but the Hong Kong experience along with the Xi crackdown on rights showed the true face of tyranny and they say “no”. Of course, once they did that (for the hundredth time), the PRC threatens invasion and the murder of the island. So much for love.

      China is throwing up the Bamboo Curtain again. It’s not quite the same as before, but that is the effect of what they’re policies are bringing. Most companies and nations are looking for alternatives to doing business with China. Xi is just a variant of Putin.

      In regard size, comparing the Western US States to the Eastern States and then to Alaska, is also very interesting. The county where I presently live in Arizona is larger than two US States in size, but nowhere near in population.

      1. I’ve been telling people for years that it’s only really Americans, Canadians and Russians who really understand how big and empty Australia is. It makes for some interesting challenges, but on the other hand half of the population is in two cities.

        I’ll never forget talking to a Japanese guy who couldn’t get over how empty the place is, verging on agoraphobic.

        1. The pioneers going west found the emptiness of the place very disconcerting. There are Interstates, but a lot of the US is like the Simpson Desert. (different snakes though)

      2. Any insights on the purported ROC statement that they will destroy TSMC before it falls into PRC hands?

        Half a literal lifetime ago, while leading a different figurative life, I was briefly introduced to Morris Chang — along with about a hundred other people in the usual sort of horrid reception line. Which counts for two things, namely: Jack. And the Other Thing.

        1. I’m sure that ROC would try. There is a question as to the level of infiltration of PRC agents into ROC institutions – you know they’re all over TSMC, and that they would try to save it for themselves.

          Morris Chang must be pushing 100. He’s older than Biden.

  2. i think china sees putin’s much vaunted tanks getting opened like a soda pop and second guesses his own military prowess. meanwhile even ol’ newt has joined the false flag preparation, calling for “ultimatums” to be declared ie; if putin uses chemical we go to war. even said putin used chems in syria. every single attack was shown to be either made up or a false flag attack on themselves. yet, here we go….its funny, i posted a putin quote from way back, that i hadn’t seen in 30 years, suddenly its everywhere the last couple of days. the one about a rat in a corner. more than one talking head misinterpreted the quote and its meaning….the great delusion, yeah. my weekender neighbor is like that, but he’s 70 years old. no fool like an old fool they say. drives a prius, uses a battery powered lawn mower, pedals an electric assisted bicycle etc. all hooked to coal fired power. “good for the environment” he says but i remind him about the lithium and cobalt strip mines and the toxic waste in the landfills. he get’s mad and goes back to richmond, lol.

    1. I’m sure that your friend is happier in Richmond among the woke.

      Don’t get me started with chemical weapons hoaxes Syria. USGOV promotes a hoax, hopes that people believe it, launches airstrikes and cruise missiles at this or that, and wipes them out. It’s almost become a cliche.

      The defense contractors see a lot of money in a Third World War with nukes tossed back and forth – big payday. That’s why their hirelings in Congress are their cheering section.

  3. Our subs must be working overtime to say the least. People seem to forget that they play a deadly game game of chess everyday to protect US. God be with those boat crews.
    Semper Fi

    1. Dedicated landlubber here who sees the condition of the surface navy and wonders if enough money is being spent on the subs maintenance.

      1. The submarine fleet is a priority as are aircraft carriers. I can’t speak to that in specific. Maybe EdB can weigh in because until recently, his son was the chief of a boat (COB).

  4. This is how I see it:

    Putin to the troops: “This will be an easy-peasy lemon-sqeezy picnic cake walk, you’ll be in and out in four days.” “FOR MOTHER RUSSIA!” Na zdorovye” [clink]

    2 weeks in: “Hey Anatoly, when was last time you changed the fuel in this thing?” “Uh, 1998.” “You idjit, we’re dead in the tracks. Now get out there and dig us out.” “Ahh, never mind, pass the Wodka.” [clink]

    3 weeks in: (Tank Team yelling out the port) “Hey, Vlad, this ain’t going like you said, these ‘Kranians are tough SOB’s being led by a comedian. What the hey is going on?” “Ahh, never mind, pass the Wodka, it’s getting cold in here.” [clink]

    4 weeks later…[Putin] “Crap, that didn’t go as planned. Tell the American media to quit showing our blasted tanks or I’ll tell everyone about the Clinton’s, Biden’s, and Obama’s…and that Trump was not on my payroll.”

    War may be a racket, but this thing the media is calling a war looks more like a circus when the animals ran into the crowd, a hurt placed on the displaced and run-over citizen so a couple of narcissist idiots can play who hates the other more. I’m giving Zelensky no quarter, despite the fawning media and Congresses hero portrayal CYA.

    I’m send the “renewable” meme to my County Commissioner and State Rep, not that it will sway them from the stupidity of shuttering reliable coal plants and forcing people out of good jobs, all for The Green Grift…but I’ll feel better at poking the Elitist Morons obviously getting paid to force us back into the 1800’s. Nikola Tesla would be a raving lunatic on these people.

    1. #2 – they also drink brake fluid.

      Despite the rallies, the deepening war that will drag on through summer will be a festering problem for Vlad, no matter how many people he purges.

  5. I can’t really imagine the White Russians will do any better than the Regular Russians, AFAICT the whole country is basically “Russia on $2 a Day!”. Never really been able to figure out why they even seceded.

    -Kle.

    1. You nailed it. White Russia is a poor shitpot of a country with a poor shitpot army that may offer itself up for slaughter in Ukraine in the hopes that Poland doesn’t come East.

    1. I don’t think that Vlad is overly concerned with the law at this point. He needs troops for the Ukrainian meat grinder.

  6. You’re one of few people who know the movie, The Beast. A true sleeper, very well done and pretty accurate to the time and place. It was filmed in Israel, by the way. I’ve watched it a half dozen times over the years. The last words of the tank commander as he awaits his demise at the hands of the Afghan woman, “Fucking Afghanistan.”

  7. All good stuff, post and comments.
    Like the first and last best.
    Thanks, LL. You all be safe and God bless.

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