Protracted Defense

With the war in Ukraine dragging on, the Russians have largely assumed a defensive posture with a few exceptions. The Ukrainian Army has counterattacked at Kiev (an interesting perspective). They also managed to fire an SS-21 at the Russian Alligator Class LST Orsk in the Port of Berdyansk, setting that ship and others ablaze and igniting weapons stored nearby.

The Russian army is waiting for a resupply of fuel, food, ammunition, and possibly better weather. As they hollow out their army on the Chinese border, backfilling with 18-year-old conscripts, I can’t help but wonder whether or not China might seize the opportunity to push north into Mongolia (with Siberia as the ultimate prize)?  The Chinese and Russians are allies of convenience in the same way that the Germans were allied with the Russians before they invaded Russia.

The territory is vast, and any war would have to be a summer war.  Mongolia is historically a Chinese territory, isn’t it? Sort like Ukraine is a historically Russian satrap.

But this is crazy talk because Xi and Putin are allies…

36 COMMENTS

  1. What are the AAA defenses at the 3 gorges damn and how many cruise missiles does it take to blow a hole in it? I know, crazy talk when they are allies.

  2. I believe it is mostly false information from both sides and the media just eats it up and passes it along. All the stories seem to try and make the reader (listener) more accepting of an escalation of hostilities.

    • My access to the Orthodox Church is excellent and I think that their reporting on the matter is about as reliable as you’re likely to get. If I wore a beard, they might trust me even more. Be that as it may, I do try and vet things.

      • LL one of the many reasons I come to this site is that the information you present is much better vetted than most. The main stream media trying to convince the majority of the US voter base that further escalation is needed, not so much.

  3. Vlad’s on the ropes, he just doesn’t know it yet.

    Still waiting for my “I Stand With Ukraine!” flag pin order (Made in China)…seems they only ship to known elitist addresses. This “small incursion” will be over by the time they show up and ruin my chance at virtue signaling cognitive dissonance. I never win.

  4. I suspect that Vlad has an indication that things aren’t going well even though he lives in a bubble, like all heads of state, with people telling them what they want to hear. If it’s true that the army driving on Kiev (at a snail’s pace) is cut off, and if the Ukrain Army can contain them long enough, they might surrender… They haven’t had food and fuel for a while now. They drank through the brake fluid and antifreeze. Could air-drops resupply them or would the goods land in Ukrainian occupied space? There are no effective coms and the Ukrainians can jam the Ham channels that they use.

    Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev, 48, was Commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District and was killed a couple of days ago in Ukraine. He is the highest-ranking Russian General to be killed there to date. And the sixth general officer. I’m sure that makes its way to Putin because at that level, it requires a presidential chop to create another Lieutenant General to replace him.

    • If I wear my Vostok Komandirskie Russian Military watch ($110 on Amazon) with the Ukraine Flag Pin, does that get me more woke points or a higher ESG score?

      Pretty sure the upper level boys are trying to figure a way out that saves some face, especially now after Air Force One landed …somewhere over there…and some vacuous person hobbled out then slurred his way through the freebie list in solidarity with “Ukraine!”.

      Vlad knows the world hates him even more at this point, likely doesn’t care. If China doesn’t come to his aid in a big way he’s done with his ill-prepared “walk in the park”, making this entire mess pointless.

      • Biden, meeting with the 82nd Airborne Division told them on camera that they were headed to Ukraine!

        Then the White House announced, “just kidding”.

        But who knows? He could order a nuclear launch and then say, “just kidding”.

      • Once that hangover from drinking the tank’s brake fluid sets in, the general standing in front of the tank cursing you for being a slovenly drunk means that you’ll put the tank in gear.

    • To do airdrops requires either air superiority or willingness to lose a metric-buttload of planes. Not much has changed (overall) in aerial operations from WWII.

      Precision airdrop is something only the US has really gotten done right, and even then it is very iffy in a contested ground area. You don’t want to run the risk of resupplying your enemies instead of your own troops.

      The Russians could potentially airdrop to the western advance to Kyiv, but that eastern advance is as shaky as Montgomery’s plan for Market Garden.

      • You must fly low enough so the parachutes don’t drift.
        Well within the range of Stingers.

        I suspect that if called on, the Russians will drop high and let them drift.

  5. Why do they keep trotting out Biden when more than half the time the White House has to issue a clarification. It is embarrassing to the office of President.

    I am not waiting on a cool watch or Ukraine pin like Paul M but I do have a small monocular my father in law gave me back in the 70s with a hammer and sickle stamped on it. He said he got it from a Soviet colonel during the Nuremberg trials after WW II. Any points for that?

  6. 145 million Rooskies invade 44 million Ukrainians and are reportedly getting their rear-ends kicked. Xi has to be thinking there is a Paper Tiger just over the border, sparsely populated and sitting on huge untapped natural resources, and he has 1,400 million mouths to feed. Hmmmm. Vlad made a huge mistake.

  7. China and Russia having at each other? Lovely. Advances the schedule. Hasn’t our esteemed President proclaimed a New World Order with the USA leading?

  8. But this is remarkable. We’ve avoided WWIII, at least so far.

    And in the spirit of armchair commandant, how come the Russians went in with so few people? A retired artilleryman said the other day “doctrine says 3/1” and they didn’t do that but could have. Error, imo, coz I’m such an expert.

    In the meanwhile, Putin’s blasting the woke rainbow. I like that.

    • 50% of the spearhead was out of fuel before they left Russia because it was cold and they kept the tank engines running.

  9. “The Russian army is waiting for a resupply of fuel, food, ammunition”

    Mostly by rail. How do they stop Ukraine saboteurs ala Belarus?

  10. Beeb says Vlad has announced a pullback from the Kiev region and a rationalization of lines and concentration in the East. Doesn’t sound good on the propaganda broadcast, but once done, might cause the Ukes worse trouble over there.

    Damn nice shooting with that Scarab; those things are not known for pinpoint accuracy.

    Perhaps in future, Russians will unload the fuel and ammo first?

    -Kle.

    • I haven’t heard that the Russians are pulling back from Kiev. The word is that they were cut off at Kiev, so the pullback could be aspirational. Do they intend to leave the army there to surrender or die? The Ukrainians are none too fond of them.

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