Caption: It’s best to be ready for an attack an hour before daybreak or just after dusk. Adjust for daylight saving time.
Bullet Points:
** When EU-backed officials in Romania fabricated the accusation that right-leaning presidential candidate Calin Georgescu was only popular because of a Russian disinformation operation on social media, the most common assumption was that this was purely a political stunt to draw voters away from his campaign. Instead, the establishment surprised many worldwide with Georgescu’s arrest and eventual disqualification from the race. There is still no concrete evidence that Russia had any hand in the candidate’s campaign or made any measurable effort to sway the election in his favor. Georgescu was the clear favorite to win because he was a populist, nationalist, and wanted to keep Romania out of the Ukraine conflict. (more here from Zerohedge)
** Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is being referred to as a political leech because he never held a straight job, ever. He’s gone through life as a government drone. They contrast with AOC (D-NY), who worked as a bartender before making her fortune in government service.
** Big Beautiful Bill – As a nation, we have had no spending cut victories of any consequence in nearly thirty years. In 1997, the Balanced Budget Agreement included roughly $800 billion in mandatory savings adjusted for inflation. The current House bill includes $1.6 trillion in savings. These are not gimmicks but fundamental reforms that lower spending and improve the programs. The bill satisfies the very red-line test that House fiscal hawks laid out a few weeks ago, which stated that the cost of any tax cut could be paid for with $2.5 trillion in assumed economic growth, but the rest had to be covered with savings from reform. This bill exceeds that test by nearly $100 billion. After decades of silence on balance, the House bill provides a historic $1.6 trillion in mandatory savings…with a three-seat majority. $36 trillion in debt is not solved overnight. It is solved by advancing and securing victories at a scale that, over time, gives a fighting shot to addressing the problem.
** Boating with EdB.
** The Acting U.S. Attorney for New Jersey has CHARGED Democrat Rep. LaMonica McIver with violating 18 U.S.C. § 111(a)(1) for assaulting and interfering with law enforcement.
** Discounts are drying up, car buyers are seeking lower-priced alternatives, and Congress is looking to roll back tax credits that have powered electric-vehicle sales for years. GM abandoned a self-imposed target to build 400,000 electric vehicles by mid-2024, and last year the company said it would delay plans for a new Buick electric vehicle and push back the opening of an EV truck factory. Ford Motor and other automakers have similarly scaled back plans. The turn against California’s mandate has been bipartisan. When the U.S. House passed a bill identical to the Senate’s earlier this month, 35 Democrats supported the legislation, including two from California.
** Democrats believe that nobody is above the law – except for 22 million illegal aliens.
** (Turley) There was a day when such a speech would have been scandalous for a sitting justice of the Supreme Court. For much of the court’s history, justices avoided public speaking beyond the perfunctory commencement speech or circuit judicial conference. The tradition was that justices would limit comments on major issues to their written opinions, to avoid any question of partisanship or bias against litigants. It was considered a cost of being one of nine.
** I guess it’s a thing – work for the federal government, collect checks for doing some drone job there, and also collect checks under unemployment insurance.
Five Percent
The 30Y US Treasury bond pierced 5% in trading (meaning its price fell, yield is inverse to price).
Several commenters have asked, “Why is the market only expressing this lowered confidence in US debt now that Trump is President?” It has been noted that US fiscal vulnerabilities have been due to excessive government spending/borrowing for some time.
It has been in a 4-5% band since the beginning of 2024 and is currently at the higher end of that range. This is important as Secretary Bessent is unfortunately saddled with rolling over 9 trillion of debt in the short to mid-term, which will be expensive. Bessent didn’t crash the car, but the first responder was on the scene.
Let’s Talk more about Bonds
Here’s why 5% matters more than most realize: This is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. When the long bond sells off like this, it’s not because the economy is overheating; it’s because the world is losing trust in the U.S.’s ability to manage its long-term liabilities.
We’re running $2+ trillion deficits annually, asking the market to absorb historic issuance without QE, foreign demand, or a credible fiscal plan. Breaking 5% on the 30Y isn’t about inflation fears but funding skepticism. The market is now pricing in that risk.
Short rates are elevated because the Fed is stuck, and long rates are rising because there is no marginal buyer left. Foreign capital is fading. Japan’s yields are rising across the curve. Currency hedging costs are high. There is no structural backstop buyer at the long end. The bond’s role as a portfolio hedge is breaking down. The 30Y used to rally in risk-off episodes. Now it’s selling off even when equities are under pressure. That’s not volatility hedging. It’s systemic fragility.
This is the market saying: “We no longer believe this debt is sustainable at low rates and we’re not willing to finance it without a premium.” Crossing the 5% line isn’t just psychological it breaks risk tolerance thresholds across pensions, insurers, and LDI portfolios. It triggers:
•Rebalancing pressures in fixed income
•VAR shocks in dealer books
•And potential forced deleveraging in risk-parity and vol-targeted funds
This yield is now a stress test in real time. Historical context:
•1994: Sudden rate spike destabilized bond markets and risk assets
•2011: Debt ceiling drama led to a downgrade and long-end repricing
•1979: Foreign buyers rejected U.S. bonds, pushing the Fed into crisis response mode
We’re now in a scenario that blends all three: 1979 fiscal optics, 1994 rate mechanics, and 2011 political dysfunction. If 30Y yield holds above 5.1%, brace for knock-on effects in credit, mortgages, and asset allocation models. Foreign FX moves (JPY, CNH, CHF), any sharp moves could signal global capital flight. Bid-to-cover ratios in this week’s Treasury auctions and weak demand would confirm a structural buyer problem. Swap spreads and the MOVE Index. If there is any spike here, we’re entering crisis territory. Bottom Line: This is a Sovereign Trust Checkpoint. This isn’t about inflation anymore. It’s about whether the world still believes in the U.S. Treasury market as the anchor of the global financial system.
Energy
Can we drill our way to prosperity? Not really. The more oil in the market, the faster the price drops, and the less profit is available. Oil is a global commodity. Lower energy prices have other benefits, and we’ve often chatted about them here on VM, so I’m not going to gore that ox again today.
One of the most consequential moves came on Trump’s first day in office, when he signed several Executive Orders, declaring a National Energy Emergency. The order invoked emergency powers under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, allowing federal agencies to bypass key National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) provisions.
President Trump’s move resulted in previously stalled infrastructure projects advancing rapidly, gaining approval within months rather than years. This is a very good thing. (More on this topic at the American Spectator.)
Corruption in the US Navy
Admiral Robert P. Burke, the Navy’s second-highest-ranking officer, was accused of steering a contract to a company that offered him a lucrative job. It led to an indictment, and he was just convicted on bribery charges.
His monthly retirement pay was $16,442/month plus perks and benefits. He wasn’t being forced to troll food banks for donated canned goods to survive.
It makes me wonder whether he was a cook during his entire naval career or whether he somehow felt entitled to do what many flag officers do. The Naval Submarine League recognized Burke with the Jack Darby Award for Leadership in 2004. Burke also received the Vice Admiral James Bond Stockdale Award for Inspirational Leadership in 2005. Do you do something to earn those awards, or are they just handed to four stars who make the rubber chicken circuit, boasting of their service?
Admiral Burke is a disgrace to the Naval Service, but he is like many four-star types, and this has to change.
Identify the Aircraft
1
2
Parting Shot
Frank offers fashion advice…
End
What do 1979, 1994, and 2011 all have in common? Can we say democrats? Go figure that prostate Joe would be able to combine all three disasters into one big glorious disaster!
Barack did say that if you want something to be REALLY f-ed up, give it to Pedo Joe to handle.
Well that was proven true, unfortunately.
Biden is an idiot. He’s very likely a pedophile. He’s a crook (along with the crime family that he led). But I can’t see how he wasn’t a victim of medical malpractice when it comes to the prostate cancer issue. Even the ObamaCare author, Zach Emmanuel, believes that his physicians knew he had cancer for at least the last seven years. Failing to disclose that doesn’t appear to be illegal, but it should be. There are health matters that a president may encounter that the nation should know about. He knew when he ran for president from the basement and so did his family and his physicians.
X2
My cousin has a close friend, Secret Service agent out of Philly, daughter was an agent as well…on Biden’s detail during his VP stint. Said “ He’s not what you perceive him being.” Had a huge party at their Delaware mansion (on $175k a year) …Biden walks right out the back door…buck naked…in front of everyone and dives into the pool…with kids in there. She said he did this often.
Most of us may have a weird proclivity…but that….that’s into the stratosphere weirdo and psycho. The guy is a pedophile…and everyone in that strange grifter family knew it…yet…nothing from the great investigatory press…bums looked the other way. And that’s only ONE thing they could have hung him on, but didn’t…because they are just like him: Evil weirdo’s.
I’m not certain on the timing but they shifted female SS Special Agents away from Pres. Biden and the First Lady’s details because Joe would walk around his Delaware home & Camp David naked and would swim naked in front of them. They were required to provide close protection and the females were uncomfortable with the arrangement. As I understand it, that wasn’t as much the case in the White House. When you consider that Joe would sneak into his biological daughter, Ashley’s bedroom and would shower with her, it paints an evil picture. His conduct with women and girls was inappropriate in almost all cases.
1 is Westland Whirlwind British licenced version of U.S. Sikorsky S-55/H-19.
Dropping off Gurkhas by the photo.
2 ?
Stand to-
I imagine MikeW knows this better than I do. Australian patrol procedures in my time was to find somewhere to stop and hide about 90 minutes before dark if not sooner, eat then be on stand to until an hour after dark. Reverse for the morning.
Stealth generally beat speed.
X2
Identify the Aircraft
1. Westland Wessex
2. Antonov An-6
Yes
Stand to — defending neighborhoods against the immigrant invasion.
I’ve heard selected conservatives who have a “pet illegal alien” that they’re unhappy seeing deported or being placed in a position to self-deport. If they’re not criminals, they can enter the legal process for immigration. And that’s it. Leave legally while there’s a window to do that and then try go get back in through the door instead of swimming the river.
Burke: Felt entitled. Like all those “end of tour” medals routinely handed out to and cheerfully received by entitled REMF staff pukes during Viet Nam, except monetary in his case. I suppose it was ever thus (see LBJ’s short, happy participation in WWII during which he received the Silver Star as an observer on one bombing mission).
I’ve seen medals earned but not awarded, and the reverse. Taking a bribe to award a large contract is something else.
I didn’t realize daybreak or dusk change with daylight saving time.
It was a joke on my part – obviously not as much of a pun as I thought it might be.
😁
Georgescu, a populist whose candidacy is attacked with charges of Russian Collusion by a government agency!
Sounds totalitarian.
I’m glad that couldn’t happen here.
The quandary is if the 2020 Steal didn’t happen we would not be in the good position we are in today with PDJT and The A-Team who had an extra four years to pre-prime the tactical pump. That is the ONLY silver lining.
And it is a silver lining. President Trump (and team) were ready after Obama’s Third Term to kick ass. Musk was ready with DOGE, and the timing might have saved the Republic. We have a form of Republic. Can it be repaired? Can the nation find its financial legs again? Have we learned a lesson as a free people?
It’s worse than we can ever know…take a watch on Prime, The Big Conn, re: SSA and the abosulte stupidity of that entire bloated agency and the inability for the federal government to police its own. Eric Conn was an Eastern Kentucky disability lawyer who worked the flaws in the program to the advantage of his clients in a poor area, and a local SSA office judge and multiple supervisors…$550 million dollars worth. And the bloated asinine approach the federal agencies took to try and tamp down the dumpster fire they created. Unreal.
By the way, The Big Conn, among others we are now emerging, makes Watergate or the Pappy Van Winkle Heist look like Kindergarten…because it is only ONE county under ONE corrupt bloated Federal organization. These people have wasted more WTP’s hard-earned cash than we could ever know.
😮 I will watch.
The 2020 Steal also opened up eyes worldwide.
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Sadly the EU bureaucrats have far more power than the individual nations’ citizens in determining what the individual nations will do and elect and say and breathe and eat and think.
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Gee, it’s almost like the EU is a fascist totalitarian over-government. Nah, that could never happen…
Boating with EdB. I remember when that happened.
I don’t remember them being there but I remember the boat lurching to a stop,
Had a diver out looking for the 115 Merc the next day having triangulated our position from shore.
Too deep, too murky. I had just rebuilt it and forgot to put the safety bolts on.
Likely you’re not alone in that, often happens with no boat maintenance and the transom rots then rips off…ALWAYS the furthest spot from shore as Murphy would have it.
The worst thing about the admiral is the effect it has on the ranks. His punishment should include a ceremony where all are gathered to watch his patches torn away, his ceremonial sword broken, and a keel hauling. Tainting the memory of the fine officers that preceded him is probably as disgraceful as his crime.
Broken in front of the ranks would be appropriate if reported and broadcast nationwide. Eighty lashes well applied from a cat-o-nine-tails or imprisonment at the Portsmouth Naval Prison on bread and water (video feed online) or something along that line would deter others. Keel hauling in clear water, where it could be filmed. You wouldn’t get a good video in filthy harbor water filled with floating ‘harbor trout.’
With today’s capabilities, live-streaming is an option for those available, and a video/film to be shown to all others. Mandatory watching, of course.
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Hmmm. Portsmouth brings up images of prison hulks. Don’t we have some ships in the mothball fleet that could easily be converted to prison hulks?
We have a LOT of hulks that could be converted to prisons for illegal aliens
AOC was not a bartender. She was a server, a bar waitress, she delivered drinks, she did not mix them.
Well, she also dances while at BU, her upper-mid class university. So that’s TWO talents (that we are aware of).
Did she dance well? Did she drop the drinks or the hors d’oeuvres she delivered? Did she shortchange the customers?
.
I thought that she poured drinks at some point in her career. Sorry for the miss on that. It was a skilled job, and it would be nice to know that a Congressional representative might have been able to master something before embarking on a political life. Too much to ask.
Sorry, it’s just not quite the same. This is called ” A double blonde skinny latte selfie ” Had that merc been an ol problematic Homelite or McCullough chainsaw we’d all be rejoicing with your anchor donation to Davey Jones. Time to upgrade to a Husqvarna or Stihl.
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My shade tree mechanicing days continue, with hopeful learning and paying better attention than ever. Just finished a week of r and r time with a friend. New wheel bearings, seals, rear driveshafts, main driveline disc and brake pads; on his Rhino 660. Slow is smooth, smooth is fast, m.o. for my wrenching abilities. Feezing the bearings was a hack taught to me so far back, can’t remember who.
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Sorry for your loss, sir. I’d mourn a Merc of any hp.
I’m all for military pensions, but does $200,000 a year seem like a lot, to anyone else?
– Kle.
I’m sure the Admiral felt that he deserved it… But even that wasn’t enough. He needed a bribe on top of the $200K/year. Not at all unlike the other four stars on the roster. SECDEF Hedgseth is reducing the three and four-star slots by 35% +/- across the board. And for every three- or four-star Mandarin, there are a dozen or more staff assignments, including drivers, chefs, batmen/butlers, housekeepers, apple polishers, etc.
Boat Motor Drop: The look on her face is priceless. Iff’n it were two males there might have been a handgun under the cover. Total accident on purpose.
***
DOJ Charges: That’s ONE who had her despicable Lefty actions ‘head’ handed to her. Keep it rolling folks, Make Americans Happy Again.
***
Shark Dressed Man: Never gonna hear that the same ever again…ruined I say, totally ruined for me. (heh)
When my motor dropped off I wondered what happened and turned to see my oldest standing with his mouth open.
It took me a moment to process what happened.
Sudden slowing down might have been a clue too…heheh.
It really was like hitting the brakes.
Be Ready for an Attack: Hmm, just discovered the wireless driveway alert, 1/4 mile away, did not chime when a delivery truck showed up this morning while mid-bite with crisp bacon and sunny-side up eggs. Thinking the deer fiddled with the sensor, moving it out of position. Might need a better alert system or install a cage around it…did not like the surprise visit.
Protect your sensor with Claymore mines. (command detonated) Pressure plates just mean mounds of dead deer and elk. I have no firsthand experience with that, of course. It’s only speculation on my part.
Hahahah…good Pro Tip.
Ah, forget all that modern electro-magic garbage. Go old school. Dig a moat (wet or dry) about 2-vehicle lengths from the front entrance of your property and install a drawbridge. A smallish dumpster-like box on the far side right next to the moat for packages to be dropped off.
Thought of that…except…granite….but, come to think of it, that would require blasting, which is always fun for us “boys”.
“Democrats believe that nobody is above the law – except for 22 million illegal aliens.”
Only 22 million? What do they have against the OTHER 20-million+ illegals? The Dems are only protecting half of them? WTF? I smell the mother of all class-action suits powering up….
—
I snark, I snark. But it’d be funny as hell if someone actually sued for discrimination and unequal treatment. (BTW I’m sick of the “we’re better than that” nonsense. That’s what the sanctimonious scolds try on you first to get you to self-censor and Comply. Screw that. “Alinsky Rules” apply. It’s the social and political equivalent of “Hama Rules” crossed with Officer Malone’s “Chicago Way”.)
Yeah, that “we’re better than that” nonsense has to go out with the trash.
Always liked this bit:
——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbsXklGF_WM
shark dressed man
Cannot relate. My high dressed attire is remembering to zip my pants.
You could buy a shark costume for Banner to wear. That may be a step to far in building his ego.
The ladies would love it. Still, won’t happen.
Go with a kilt. After all, Scots know zippers scare sheep…
It’s hard to drain the swamp. There’s hard work by many trying to do so. May they succeed.
Nice to meet you.
Have a fabulous day and week. :)
$9 trillion in short-term debt is due to Janet Yellen not selling 10 and 30 year bonds. The capital flight that is going to happen is out of the EU and into the US. On related news crypto is being used in FX exchange at a fractionofthecost, which is going to put hurt on City of London. They account for 30-35% of global fx settlements. For now….
What’s the purpose of the extra dorsal position on the Antonov?
It was a test platform. I think that a radar operator sat in the rear cockpit forward of the rudder I have no idea why the Russians settled on that arrangement.
It’s Russian, no reason needed. Some general says “We need guy in tail” and you get some guy in tail. Think the Pentagon procurement system is borked? Russian procurement system has been, is and will be forever borked. Like… “We don’t need much elevation or depression on tank guns since we will fight enmass from a distance.” Then you get city fighting in the Uke and mountain terrain like in Afghanistan and hilly terrain and… yeah, whole generations of AFVs that have to fully expose themselves in order to take a shot. Dur…
It was some sort of weather research/recce aircraft, from what I gather.
I think the weird rear cockpit was so the meteorologists (?) would have a better view up.
– Kle.
Burke needs to be hung out to dry. And so do the ones we ‘know’ are doing the same thing but getting away with it! Grrr…
I’m open to Burke being completely innocent. He’s not a stupid man. I read in the press ONE account that said the prosecution’s lead witness is a convicted liar and perjurer and hated Burke. I think she made the whole thing up out of spite and animosity. The idea that this would all be OPENLY talked about as if it was in ANY WAY legal is ridiculous. This is the whole Fat Leanard thing all over again with a different victim.
Prosecutors are not all created equal and neither are the FBI Special Agents, who in this case, would have handled the investigation. Having done that for a living, there is sometimes a rumor mill that reaches the press that may or may not be accurate. So we’ll wait and see.