Will the President of Venezuela (Juan Guaidó) reach out to the international community for help in removing the OTHER Venezuelan President, and Dictator-for-Life Nicholas Maduro? And if that were to happen, would Brazil and Columbia ask for aid from the USA in doing that?
And if they asked, would America answer, now that the State Department has left the US Embassy in Caracas and burned all of the classified documents?
Note: Before any military action, nations close the embassy and burn files. The file destruction has not been mentioned, but no country vacates its embassy without removing or destroying sensitive files, such as any record of contacts with the opposition. 
This is always a pre-war action. It does not mean that military action is likely, but it clears away one of the inhibitors for military action.
President Trump did not run as a “nation builder” or as a military interventionist, but if Brazil and Columbia begged the US for help? If the face of the “restoration of order” was Latin American troops, possibly flown in by US aircraft?
The US can wipe out the Venezuelan air force in something like four minutes, but would the goal be to break equipment that the new democratic government will need? I think that a no-fly zone, with US aircraft enforcing the rules is a more likely scenario – while the other Latin American countries restore order, remove the pretender to the throne (Maduro) because he’s a tyrant, etc. 
Naturally, the Democrats in Congress would be wounded at the thought of a tyrant removed, but if Brazil did it…and President Trump is only helping the Latin American coalition to return all the refugees to their homes?
Sit back with your popcorn and watch. Maybe that’s the plan. Maybe it’s not

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10 COMMENTS

  1. Winston Churchill said, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they've tried everything else."

    After 60+ years of observing (and participating in, for six years) American military intervention, I can only concur.

  2. I think that the right thing is to sit back and allow the Venezuelans to solve their own problem. Possibly supply the right people inside the country with sufficient small arms and anti-armor capacity to deal with the situation. But I don't think that's what we'll do.

  3. What? Overthrow a socialist dictator? I don't see Congress liking that very much.

    Then again, maybe they'll be too busy defending against declassified FISA to notice.

  4. Hopefully we will let the regional powers settle this with, perhaps, a wee helping hand from us. What we should do is stop any Chinese or Russian intervention beyond what boots on the ground (military advisors) are there now.

  5. You have to wonder what goes through the minds of politicians. Or in some politician's – Barack the empty chair, AOC or that crowd, maybe nothing. They just read what their handlers wrote on the teleprompter.

  6. I can't imagine that one way or another, we won't eventually be involved down in Venezuela. A peaceful transition of power just doesn't seem plausible, and whether the place goes full scale civil war, or just full scale Lord of the Flies, it's too close and too populous for us to completely ignore.

    Here's hoping it's as fast and smooth as is possible, when the time comes.
    -Kle.

  7. I don't think that the Russians or Chinese want a piece of this. They'd like not to lose their investment, but that's for the war gods to decide.

  8. I agree with you. The US will involve itself. The question is one of degree and the nature of that involvement. I'd rather see Latin American troops take the field and eliminate the dictator than to sent Americans into harm's way.

  9. Trump us a good businessman as evidenced by his trade accomplishments. Dealing with tinpot dictators is a bit
    different. We could easily remove Maduro but the mess doing
    so could cause is likely not worth it.

  10. Venezuela (a worker's paradise) is a mess that will require many billions to fix, just to get to the position where the country is functioning at a basic level. I don't know that it's worth the fix from the US side. Humanitarian relief is another matter and I think that we should be engaged at that level. Once you say "military intervention" – you will break things, and you're there forever, dealing with the mess that you now own.

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