Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has tried to put a brave face on the drop of oil prices and the implications for domestic tranquility going forward. With unemployment hovering at 50% (official number is 25%), rampant inflation, sanctions staunching the flow of oil and the capacity to import anything, and the Chinese Plague raging unchecked, there is a lot of dissatisfaction in Iran.
The beards have difficulty managing to do anything (despite their assertion that God is their co-pilot) right under normal circumstances.
According to recent estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Iran needs global oil prices to reach the highly unlikely benchmark of $195 a barrel just in order to meet its budget requirements for 2020.
With current predictions suggesting oil prices are likely to remain around the $19 a barrel mark through the end of the year. Supreme Leader is going to have to do something to calm his people down.
What about a navy war?
In times of crisis, the regime has often resorted to stirring up tensions in the Gulf, and elsewhere in the Middle East, as a means of increasing pressure on the US and its allies. To that end, Iran’s IRGC have been accused of conducting a number of confrontational operations in the Gulf this month, including the temporary seizure of a Chinese tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, which proved to be deeply embarrassing for Tehran, as China is one of the few countries still buying its oil.
There has also been an increase in Revolutionary Guard patrol boats harassing US warships operating in the Gulf, a development which has prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to order the US Navy to destroy Iranian gunboats if they continue with their provocative actions.
Iran doesn’t just have fiberglass patrol boats. The (old Iranian warship, Sahand, left was sunk by the US Navy – now a reef/marine habitat)
They launched a “New Sahand” corvette that they call a “stealth destroyer”. I call it another target, but I’m a cynic.
We’ve discussed swimmer delivery vehicles here on the blog recently. In August 2000, Iran announced that it had launched its first domestically produced light submarine or swimmer delivery vehicle, named the Al-Sabiha 15 because of its 15 meters length, in an official ceremony at the Bandar Abbas naval base. In May 2005, Iran navy announced that it had launched its first Ghadir-class midget submarine and on 8 March 2006 announced that it had launched another midget submarine named Nahang (Persian: whale). They have a few corvettes that mount anti-shipping missiles and have some older Russian Kilo Class (diesel/electric) submarines. However, by all estimates, any new naval construction is likely on hold since Iran is broke.
Don’t count out Iran’s Communist Chinese allies. Sure, they seized a Chinese tanker, but it was a mistake. They would likely reach out to China before starting a war to get Beijing’s blessings and secure their support.
At a national/international level, my father’s belly flapping principal?
They’re close.
We still owe them for the embassy attack. And the murder/torture of many US citizens all over the world.. And the IED’s supplied to Iraq. Etc.
So- destroy their anti air assets, bring on the B-52’s, and start dropping cheetos, rice, beans, beer, porn, condoms, music CD’s, every confiscated weapon from every police dept in the country, ammo to suit, lipstick, soap , cheeseburgers, Barbie dolls, and every other bit of western culture we can load up. Plus ATM’s, the kind that flies, and other tasty tidbits of western tech.
Plus a 50 million dollar bonus for the heads (literally, for DNA and photos) of every one of the beards and instigators of the hostage takeover, revolutionary guard commanders etc.
Shake the tree. Gotta be some peaches up there.
Sound strategy. The mullahs really hate Barbie dolls because of their “unwholesome flexibility”, so lots of Barbies.
Something has to give. The Iranian people are tired of the beards, and all they have to do is stop being a$$holes, and the sanctions will lift and they can be like everyone else. However under the current leadership, that’s asking too much.
The new Sahand looks like it would make a fine reef. I’m with Raven. They started a war with us when they took over the embassy in ’79 and sufficient payback hasn’t happened.
I’m with you, Jim. And they may pick a fight with us to distract the population from their current misery.
Please, please, please can we sink them?
I know, it would be so satisfying, wouldn’t it?
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