Steve-in-Texas and an American Thinker article got me thinking.

Is is NOW a good time for China to attack the United States of America?

Is a military move against the US, which could lead to a nuclear exchange in Chinese interests?

2019 was a rough year financially for China. It was possibly the worst year in the past 47. It looks as if President Trump will win re-election and that’s four more years of misery as the US stops the Chinese looting of America. And the Chinese dream is built on riding (like a parasite) the back of the United States’ economic power house. Joe (Slow Joe) Biden’s growing senility has done little to assure China that the $1.5 billion that they gave his son Hunter to use as investment capital will pay off.

The Chinese Plague has been very rough on the Chinese people. Note that China isn’t offering a six trillion dollar bail out to its people and businesses. They all take it on the chin. Wages in China will inevitably drop and the dream of a Chinese Century seems to be very illusive. Beijing was to host the 2024 Olympics but how many people will come to witness their glory?

China must appear to be strong. There is a proverb that, “Everyone tries to push down a falling wall.” Another one states that, “If you fall down into a well, people will come and throw stones down on you.” The Communist Chinese Party (CCP) does not continue to exist by being weak. One way that China remains strong is by making almost everything a state secret. It’s tough to see through a Potemkin Village if it is shrouded. China’s weakness or strength is, therefore, a matter of smoke and mirrors.

Chinese Military Options

  • Does China plan to take and hold US territory in their coming war?
  • Does China plan a nuclear first strike against the US?
  • Does China plan to work with North Korea to invade South Korea while simultaneously launching an amphibious invasion of Taiwan?
  • Will China strike Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia and invade them in a move toward hegemony?

If China is to provoke a war, it needs to have a vision of how it will come out on top. The establishment of a Japanese co-prosperity sphere in the last century could be viewed as a road map, but that ended badly for the Japanese (and the Chinese, who were savaged by them). Would Russia stand by, or would it take a bite out of China? And before you tell me that they are allies, take a step back and think long and hard on that one. What would we owe Russia if they kept the Northern Front occupied?

Would China’s Muslim population in Western China stand by, or might they see it as an opportunity to make common cause with China’s enemies?

Puzzle Pieces

There are eight distinct languages spoken in China, each unintelligible to the others – and one written language. Shanghai, Guangzhou, Muslim Western China, Hong Kong, and Macao would leave the People’s Republic of China tomorrow if it was not for the boot of the People’s Liberation Army, keeping them in place. How does that play with the PRC’s foreign ambitions?

The question that you need to ask yourself is “what’s in it for China?”

Chinese leaders are not insane nor are they irrational.

18 COMMENTS

  1. I’m no expert but I’d say a war with the US would be suicidal for the CCP. All the more reason for them to fear the backlash they’ll face over their careless bioweapon release.

    For goodness sake, it’s not as if their hold on power is in any sense fragile.

    • The Chinese don’t want to see that either. And that’s part of the whole point. There’s no gain for them to launch an overt attack on the US Navy in WESTPAC. As Raven suggests, they have a malicious agenda, but playing to American strengths is stupid. Paying Slow Joe and Hunter $1.5 billion as an “investment” was a move that might pay off for them in November if we are that f-ing stupid.

    • The People’s Republic of China is an enemy state. I think that Americans see that today but we have short memories. The Age of Trump has shown us that the statue with the head of gold has feet of clay. If President Trump is re-elected with a Republican legislature, I think that we’ll see a heavy bounce back. If corrupt, old, creepy, senile Slow Joe is elected and the donkeys take the legislature, we’re in for a bumpy road – irrespective of what the Chinese do.

  2. Some would say the first salvo in a 5G war has already been fired.
    I am not a soldier, not a historian , but if I were to launch an attack on the USA I would first do my best to incapacitate us with a bio weapon of ambiguous origin. That takes out a large percentage of the response team.
    Then I would follow it up with a cyber attack, of dubious origin, while half the techs were not at work. Scada control systems, etc.
    The advantage of the these is they both can be lied and obfuscated away leaving doubt. Was it an accident? Hackers? does it justify retaliation? etc.
    Sun Tze would not advocate some overt attack on us- that plays into our strengths.
    What they are doing is using our strength against us- if we continue our actions we will destroy our own economy for them without a shot being fired.

    • Yes, the Art of War suggests that you attack an enemy where he is weak. I agree that Huawei’s 5g technology was fully embedded with malware and had we incorporated it, we ran a profound risk of having more of our systems compromised. That campaign failed and today, with the Chinese Plague devastating Europe’s elderly, I think that Huawei’s future in Europe is in doubt. There will be a worldwide backlash toward China and a suspicion of their intentions.

      There is a question as to whether the virus is more dangerous to us – or our reaction to the virus is worse and more damaging. That remains to be seen.

  3. China has a huge standing army. Or as The Donald would say, ‘yooge.’ Two million boots on the ground, quite the specter to be facing.

    Then again, how well are these troops trained, and are they well indoctrinated into Mao’s Little Red Book philosophy that they are willing to lay down their lives for Mother China, like Russians would for Mother Russia, or Imperial Japanese soldiers were for their immortal Emperor?

    In a big, messy war, what kind of soldiers are these? The boots on the ground make you or break you as a country. Remember that Saddam Hussein had a big ol’ gnarly army, and the vaunted Republican Guard – feared in the region, but when push came to shove they were nothing but a bunch of Gomer Pyles.

    • In order for the Chinese to invade the US they have a lot of ocean to cross (with their Gomers). I don’t see them starting a war with the US. And it’s not one of those things that would likely remain a limited war. A huge land army, primarily composed of peasants would eventually face an army many times that size comprised of armed American citizen-patriots. And while prepper types spend their days worrying about that, I just don’t see it.

    • They certainly did after a fashion. Of course, if it was a wartime footing, the whole ship would just suffer along as ships do with the flu ALL THE TIME. The Chinese Plague is worse than the flus we’ve experienced because nobody has immunity (the New Flu).

  4. My information is based on observations made on the ground traveling the PRC in the 1990’s. The PLA (all branches) is 75% social services and iron ricebowl for domestic policing and 25% actual trained in some degree honed fighters. I don’t think this has changed all that much in 20 years though their equipment and reach has improved considerably.

    Rational or not, if the provinces start to rebel or challenge Beijing, an external war to distract and build anti western fervor is eminently possible. The secondary issue is whether they can pivot to growing their economy on internal consumption if the west does in fact act to lower dependence on China. An open question at this time.

    • Invading Vietnam was…humiliating for the Chinese. Maybe they’ll invade Laos? But a shooting war with the US is not something that they want.

  5. The ChiComs have been at a low-intensity war with the USA for, well, since before Nixon went all friendly with them.

    Their actions towards our businesses, our laws, our schools and our land are very much the actions of an enemy (land? Land??? Well, duh, like the major ports on the West Coast… which President Trump has taken back, thankfully.)

    Then there’s the low-intensity activity against our military. Our planes messed with, secrets stolen (or paid for, thanks Bill Clinton!) and constant electronic attacks against our computer systems, and at least one space ‘accident’ resulting in a US satellite casualty, accidentally.

    I just hope that the Novel Wuhan ChiCom Corona Covid 19 virus has hit the PLA, PLAN and PLAAF hard.

    Else, the ChiCom leadership will try something to divert the ChiCom people’s attention elsewhere. Taiwan? Vietnam (or do you think they finally learned their lesson there?) Mongolia? Where will ChiCom attention be focused now?

    • At the moment, based on sources in China, the CHICOM is worried about a US First Strike on China. It’s absurd, but paranoia runs high when they released a bio-weapon on the planet (technically an act of war).

  6. I don’t think the PRC is going to go for that gamble yet… the consequence for losing is just too high. OTOH, I don.t really know what sort of internal stress they are under.

    I think we should be on heightened alert, though.

    -Kle.

    • Ever vigilant, Kle.

      The Chinese are trying to figure out their own way forward, and I doubt that it means invading a neighbor or picking a fight with the USA. But one must always be prepared.

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