Caravan Analysis

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The Caravan from Honduras
Living system analysis is useful in many situations. In a living systems analysis, the caravan was a complex living system. Nothing about it looks spontaneous or unorganized. It was well financed and effective as a living system. Its ultimate purpose will not be known until the leaders and backers are identified and questioned. I reached out to friends in the office of the Mexican Secretary of Defence and offered to bring my little group to bear on answering those questions for them, operating ex-officio but with the knowledge and backing of Mexico, on their sovereign territory. I doubt that they’ll go for it, but it’s worth a try.

Let’s talk about the living system for a moment.

The caravan emerged as a living system when it left San Pedro Sula in northern Honduras. There is a history of anti-government unrest and demonstrations in that city. 
In January, anti-government demonstrations in San Pedro Sula were disrupted by the earthquake that month in Honduras. The slow pace of reconstruction appears to be the government’s response to entrenched opposition activity and would explain a lack of jobs and prospects. 
There is a political undercurrent to the caravan that has not been reported. Honduras seems to have exported political agitators. If so, the Tegucigalpa government would have been pleased to facilitate their departure. Their hand may be in some of the funding as may cartel hands. Keep in mind that about 70% of cartel heroin is grown in Honduras (for export to the US and elsewhere). The cartels don’t want to see political unrest in Honduras ruin their investment or their cash crops.
The fact that the caravan held together through the journey means that all 20 subsystems of a living system received their share of the information, matter and energy required to sustain the life of the system, the caravan. Inputs of information, matter and energy sustain life in all living systems, from amoebas to the United Nations.
The information requirement for a mobile living system is substantial. People need to be counted, identified and monitored. Special needs must be met. 
The caravan moved purposefully which means that some people were providing guidance and direction and possessed problem-solving authority and resources. No reporters pursued their identities or their motives, but those are key traits of the information processing subsystem of a living system.
It is vital for the leadership to provide information in a living system about the sources of food and water; public health and hygiene; places to camp and find entertainment; the sources of tents, toilet tissue and soap; how and where to obtain essential items and how to allocate them.
Somebody charted the route for the caravan to take and ensured it followed it. 
In terms of matter, a few reporters posted images of the lines of tractor trailer trucks that supported the movement. These apparently contained the supplies, including tents and daily necessities, needed to provide about 2,000 calories per day for each of up to 7,000 people, mostly men.
A key subsystem of a living system is waste extrusion. 7,000 people leave about 3.5 tons of waste every day.
Relative to matter, good walking shoes would be vital for making a long hike, not sneakers or flip-flops, which were common on videos. 
The most important unanswered question about matter is by whom and how was this caravan financed. Some videos showed unidentified individuals passing out cash to caravan members at road stops, but the source of the funds was never reported by open source reporters
Concerning energy, the line of tractor trailers means that access to motor fuels was as essential as food and water. It also suggests that the caravan members relied on motor transport in making the trek.
There has been a lack of responsible reporting on the caravan. One can opine that there may be no responsible reporters left in the media (entirely possible) or on the other hand, the mandarins in the media don’t wish the truth to be told. Maybe it’s both things, taken together? No matter how it turns out, living system analysis requires that elements of that living system be ‘interrogated’ to determine how it is being nourished (paid for).
I doubt that the Democrats are behind the caravan. Its arrival in conjunction with the election and with post election spending that will go to the border wall (before the new Congress is seated) does not aid their occasionally stated aim of facilitating illegal immigration to bolster their numbers in elections. It can be argued that the Democrats may have done better in the mid-term where their tepid performance could be said as a partial victory for President Trump, were it not for the caravan and President Trump’s concerns about illegal immigration coming home to roost.

13 thoughts on “Caravan Analysis

  1. Some enterprising reporter is missing out on a potential Pulitzer Prize. I hate to quote The X-Files, but the truth is out there and it's clearly 'findable'. The CNN reporters/photographers who swarmed the local Mexican lady with her three children, who they paid to go out and get her picture taken clearly have no interest in the truth.

  2. I figured that photo was fake. No one else was running in the video. Doesn't seem right.
    I think there are no responsible reporters left. If there are, they are being paid off or blackmailed. Too much news goes unreported.

  3. This regiment sized army of aspiring Invaders were likely funded by multiple channels. Odds are a virtual certainty that much of
    the money came from America hating former Nazi George Soros via his many front organizations. Of course there are likely others involved either financially or logistically. Just looking at pictures and video from this you can clearly see they are clean, well fed and wearing decent clothing. That requires a logistical effort akin to fielding a large military force. Yet the ONLY significant coverage given this by the media whores shows us
    women and children when the majority of this group are military aged men. You will see the teargas fired in one direction but they try to not show the rocks etc. being thrown by the invaders. There is definitely a story to be investigated and reported but the media don't want that story to be told. They have a DIFFERENT story they want the public to swallow.

  4. 95% military age single males. There are very few children in the caravan, but they are a magnet for reporters with an agenda.

    Yes, the logistics to an infantry (or mech infantry) regimental movement are very similar. The tonnage of daily food and the quantity of potable water, medical support on the journey, etc. Just the same.

    I still think that the key is the cartels. Soros and Democrat money clearly backfired if that was their plan. I'm not suggesting that Soros wasn't involved. His rat claws are everywhere. It's just that the ground organization smacks of cartel involvement.

  5. You only see the women and children at the Spears tip and around the edges. Human shields and propaganda.

  6. That's how the corrupt, elite mainstream media play it. And for all I know, they're paying women and children to be human shields. You know the Crooked Jim Acosta would pay for that visual.

  7. Interesting analysis and information, thanks. I took the liberty to copy some of the text since it was so damned well written and informative on an issue the MSM do not care about. Especially these days when the UN migration agreement is on the agenda. Any idea how long time it took from the caravan started until they reached the US border?

  8. The Dems and their lying media satraps are obviously working the caravan for all it's worth and you can't blame them. But bought and paid for by the lib apparatus?

    Unlikely, unless they're in the business of deliberately losing votes and boosting the Trumpist base.

    You hint cartel, which strikes me as having the ring of truth. But what do I know, I just say Mass, make pies and shoot guns.

    Good luck with the pitch.

  9. There are several caravans. The first one has arrived but there are more on the way. Somewhere around 13,000 total depending on who you talk to. Some have better motor transport and possibly better organized logistics than others. They took a couple weeks to arrive at the border, and immediately made themselves obnoxious to the Mexicans by stealing food, bullying people and eliminating their waste in public on roads and sidewalks.

  10. I spoke with a potential client this afternoon and there are people coming into CA to speak with my associates about work while I am scanning the waves in Hawaii.

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