There have been reports in the press (not the American press) dealing with the PRC amping up its timescale for the absorption of Taiwan through a military invasion. I’m sharing them here by way of FYI commentary.
Chinese leadership lives in their own bubble in much the same way as leaders elsewhere exist in an echo chamber of their own devising. Today China cut “key” interest rates. Russia increased interest rates by 3.5% points to 12% with the ruble having fallen from an exchange rate of about 30 rubles per U.S. dollar to over 100 rubles per US dollar! For all the speculation and talk of China and Russia forging ahead with a joint “gold-indexed” currency, these developments do not look like they are going to find many interested international partners or parties.
Wall Street Journal:
“Chinese officials said they would stop reporting the country’s youth unemployment rate after months of spiraling increases, depriving investors, economists, and businesses of another key data point on the declining health of the world’s second-largest economy.
The surprise move extends China’s efforts to restrict access to a variety of data on its economy and corporate landscape to outside scrutiny.
At the same time, China’s central bank unexpectedly cut a range of key interest rates, an emergency move to reignite growth after new data showed the economy slid deeper into distress last month.
The twin moves earlier today by the National Bureau of Statistics and the People’s Bank of China came as a batch of new data showed spending growth by consumers and businesses slowed last month, while factory output grew much less than expected, adding to a recent raft of worrying signals.”
Another Island with a runway. Islands serve as immobile yet unsinkable aircraft carriers and the Chinese undertook to militarize a number of them. There is a new one under construction: In just the last few weeks, China has begun to build what appears to be a new airstrip on one of the islands it controls in the highly contested South China Sea. The size of the airstrip, as it currently stands, means it’s hard to know exactly what purpose it’s intended to serve. However, construction of this kind at this particular location, Triton Island — the closest in the disputed Paracels archipelago to Vietnam — is significant in itself. Read more here.
The goal of the People’s Liberation Army’s Navy and the PLA itself is to pepper the Pacific with these fortified islands to extend their military reach. The Japanese did the same thing with less-than-perfect results in the long term.
This comes from the Sunday Guardian, an Indian publication: The US Navy surface warfare ships (America Carrier Strike Group and the America Amphibious Ready Group) along with Japanese, South Korean and Australian flattops are currently engaged in the Talisman Sabre exercise near Australia through 4 August. They might not be able to return to Taiwan’s waters in time for a contingency.
Make of it what you will.
I wonder if the U.S. Navy has Durandal runway cratering bombs, or maybe their modern equivalent. I know the USAF does. Back in the day (90s) they were pretty darn effective. A couple of those in the runway would serve to isolate the island and make them much harder to be used as a base of operations or to resupply them. That makes the fortified islands pretty effective as a bargaining chip and as a way of projecting power until the balloon goes up. Then the islands are not near as useful.
I’m out of the loop but as I understand present doctrine, SSGNs and SSNs launch Tomahawks that use munitions to deny the use of the runway and take out missile and tube anti-aircraft artillery and then BUFFs drop Durandals to destroy the runway.
BUFFs? Great old airplane when engineers used slide rules and included a little bit of a fudge factor. Guess they don’t want to risk the F 35s.
If they can do the job why not?
Cratering runways is good, but don’t forget to hit the fuel depot and the water plant.
Seriously, that’s how you take those islands out. Kill the fuel, kill the fresh water and whomever is on the island is stuck. Cratering the runway is just frosting on the cake.
Hitting any wharf or pier isn’t necessary, nor is hitting any other installation.
Fuel and water. It’s what kills small islands.
Almost caused the evacuation of non-essential personnel from Kwajalein in the mid 70s as there was a tad bit of drought and the desalination plant could only handle so much. They solved it by finding the old Japanese lens well. Basically a hole in the island that fills with salt water and also traps fresh water.
The reported failure by radio of the fresh water distillation plant caused the Japanese to tip their hand as to the target they intended to attack (Midway).
+1,Beans
You are correct. TLAMs first then local bombing.
I agree that islands are hard to sink.
The British found after the Falklands war that the bomb craters they thought had prevented the air field from being used didn’t.
The holes had been repaired then dirt put over them to fool the satellites. They swept off the dirt just before they launched a mission then put it back.
Tom Cruise was able to take off along a taxiway in an F-14 in Top Gun II…
Durandals actually lift the runway and crack it as opposed to cratering it.
China seems to have concluded that islands are cheaper to build than aircraft carriers, can’t say they’re wrong.
They’re running out of cash reserves.
“ islands are hard to sink”
Maybe so, but some are apparently at risk and f tipping….
Risk of tipping.
Only Guam.
Thing about the Commie Chinese made islands is they are typical Tofu Drek projects. They are falling apart as soon as they’re built.
Which is strange, because the Imperial Japanese before and during WWII and the US after WWII were very successful at building up islands using dredged coral.
And don’t forget, the Philippines and Japan have islands within missile range of Taiwan and the waters around them, along with lots of airfields, ports and such.
The ChiComs think they can project power. But, well, they think their shit don’t stink also.
The more I hear, the more I believe the senior management of the CCP and Xi himself are living in a bubble and have little realization of the actual realities of what is going on.
There’s news coming out of Commie China that there are whole mega factories shuttered and all the workers are now living wherever they can find shelter, from homemade tenements to living in unused sewer pipes.
Though there is some quality in quantity. They have enough planes to pretty much suck up our whole arsenal of air-to-air weapons if push comes to shove.
Bank of China cut the salaries of bank employees by 50% without notifying those employees beforehand. As one might expect, there was some job dissatisfaction that resulted this past week…
I read somewhere that when the Chinese’s GIs actually tangle with the enemy it doesn’t work out to well. Vietnam, Indian border , another place that escapes me. The one child policy created a bunch of spoiled pussies or something. Maybe I dreamed that. I’m sure any of them could whip my old ass. If they could get close enough .
The latest tiffs on the Indian border, the Indians literally bitch-slapped the ChiComs. That jumping-up-and-on-the-down-reach-out-and-slap-downward thing you see in Bollywood movies, yep, that’s how the Indians handed the ChiComs their collective asses.
Funniest thing you’ll see. ChiComs trying Kung-Fu while Indian martial artists slap the shit out of them.
Do you see a second front?