Ukraine War Update

In the Northeast

A brief summary of previously Russian occupied areas which have been recaptured by Ukraine so far. Recaptured areas are marked in white.

The largest areas of recaptured territory are in Ukraine’s North. At the beginning of the war,  Russian forces occupied a sizeable area before being pushed back beginning on 20th March and withdrawing completely by 6th April.

Recent, successful, counterattacks by Ukraine have been carried out Northeast of Kharkiv, forming a buffer around the regional capital. In some areas, East and Southeast of the city, Russian armored battle groups have been pushed back to or beyond the Siverskyi Donets river.

In the South

In early March, Russian forces reached the borders of Kherson oblast and advanced to the outskirts of Mykolaiv, some forward units pushing much further North and Northwest. Ukraine has since pushed Russian armor back from Mykolaiv and, in some areas, across the administrative border.

This is flat, open terrain where advances invite attacks by hull-down and defensive fire. It doesn’t favor either side. The Russians also enjoy a short supply line to Crimea where the roads and rails have not been cut. Russia can supply by Black Sea routes to the extent that the fleet is able to pull it off. The loss of a second flagship in a couple of weeks underscores the danger to the Russians of approaching Odessa or even the Danube River Delta.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet

The 409-foot Admiral Makarov was perhaps the most valuable target for Ukrainian missile crews and drone operators. I don’t know how many of its best Neptune anti-ship missiles the Ukrainian navy has left but we do know that British anti-shipping missiles left the UK for Odessa, so the point may be somewhat moot given a week or two.

We don’t know the current condition of the Admiral Makarov, but even if it’s floating, it’s likely combat ineffective, reducing the number of Russian major surface combatants in the Black Sea to two.

Admiral Makarov and her sisters are not big ships. Displacing just 4,000 tons and accommodating 200 crew, they’re less than half the size of the U.S. Navy’s main surface combatants, the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

The frigates are about as big as Russia can make a non-nuclear surface combatant these days, for reasons that—ironically—have everything to do with the current war. Throughout the Soviet era and for years after the USSR’s collapse, Russia acquired its big marine engines from Ukraine.

After Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula—including the port of Sevastopol where Admiral Makarov now is based in 2014, Kyiv barred certain exports to Russia, including the marine engines Russia requires for any fast, conventional vessel displacing more than 5,000 tons or so.

Which is to say, after 2014 the Russian navy struggled to build big warships. That made it impossible to replace, like for like, the biggest Soviet-vintage ships such as Moskva, which displaced 12,000 tons.

 

From 1952

38 COMMENTS

  1. It doesn’t bode well that the Biden/Obama administration is bragging about sharing intel to help Uks shoot down a transport plane carrying 100+ paratroopers, killing 6 generals, and helping to sink two warships. It’s almost like they’re trying to provoke full scale war. But CNN says the “Adults are in charge” so I can relax…can’t I?

    • narcissists have to brag, to show us idiots how smart they are. they just can’t help themselves. they counter our concern saying everybody already knows anyway. sure, but they didn’t have it in writing/video to hold up to the world and say “see, i told you so”, followed by the missiles.

      • I don’t know if it is stupid or it is just our dear leader’s way to suck us into a bigger conflict and be able to point the finger at the Russians for any escalation that involves the US.

    • Nobody in the US knows who’s really in charge? Maybe Obama? Who has the “Football” with authority to launch? That was taken away from Joe early on. The front people are Creepy Joe Brandon and the Cupid Stunt.

      • The situation is getting more degradingly serious each day. America is on the precipice of destruction, with bald-faced lying by the lunatics, including The Lost In His Own Space Doddering Oval Office Resident…selling us snake-oil that fuel prices and food shortage are ACTUALLY GOOD and we should be GRATEFUL for all their great work, including trying to convince us America isn’t in a war with Russia. Pure crap. All that means is they plan to make it worse by design unless We The People step in and wrest control to where it belongs. These idiots don’t own us or America, we do. Without us they don’t exist.

        Covid was an Op to test our mettle, and so many folded like a cheap umbrella in a Wyoming breeze. Just wait until the jabbed and boosted start dropping like flies, more than what has already occurred (VEARS is off the charts). Yet will anyone make the connection? Sure, not all kowtowed to their oppression, so they’re tripling down on the soft anarchy, hamstringing the rest of us with all manner of subversive bravo sierra. Fuel nearing $6 a gallon is only the start, next week or month it’ll be the grid…to save the friggin planet or some such nonsense.

        Not sure what the “wresting control” looks like, but the iron is hot…and starting to melt. A hoped for win in November may be too optimistic, and too late.

        I can’t help myself, as much as I try to avoid “looking”, I get drawn into the morass to “keep tabs”. It has become pathological because nothing prevents it, other than maybe going full Luddite. But then I’ll be unprepared. So I “check in”, to my detriment. But what’s the alternative?

        The Good People are trying to maintain some normalcy despite the insanity all around. Th neighbors are branding, trying to hold onto a 100+ year-old operation while making no money under these fools who think lab meat is just peachy, proving that many who Occupy DC need to be shown the head catch and branding iron. As for me, have projects around the homestead to do, which often clears the mind and calms the soul…at least for a little while.

        Sorry to hog the post. I’ll be quiet now. Maybe.

          • drjim, EdB…I still have no clue how to reverse this nosedive trend, especially sitting in the cheap seats. I fear there isn’t a practicable solution as so many people have been beguiled by The Father of Lies, failing to see the cell door isn’t locked.

            I’ll put this out there…

            I was recently asked to reengage in ministry by a person who, unbeknownst to me, spoke with some former congregates that miss my approach to presenting the Gospel. (Huh, didn’t know that.) The church is failing Believers, badly…which is why America is taking on water: Weak pulpits. Yet I am discovering the decision to reengage to be a difficult one – anything other than “yes” sounds trite and whimpy. But I ask myself, will putting in another round of concerted effort to help those (myself included) needing to moor their boats a little closer to God’s dock and stick to the path, will it have any long-term results?

            So, as a David, I continue to wrestle with the Goliath that has become our soulless oppressors…just can’t figure out what “engagement” looks like, so I pray for direction — and a small pebble launched at the right trajectory to take out some of these hellhound’s who believe they are God’s gift to humanity yet are working for the opposing team.

            We do need to stick together, even if it’s virtually. And I am eternally grateful for LL’s severely excellent content found nowhere else and his soundboard allowance (which I abuse on occasion)… keeps me [mostly] sane.

          • The problem with many congregations is that along with the sincere comes a lunatic fringe. They all have them – all organizations open to the public anyway. And if they’re not there at first, they arrive. They’re the same licensed voters who make up juries and elect fools to public office. The rabble rousers put their noses under the tent and you have to deal with them. You know what I’m saying is true. Anyone who has been around for any period of time (particularly in a religious setting) has had to deal with them. How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? They will argue the number is 5 (even though we all know the true number is 6) and they will demand to open their eggs at the large end.

            In other words, be prepared to suffer fools.

          • Very true. I have learned the hard way (more than once just make sure) to not be so naive, even in a ministry setting where certain assumptions are no longer valid. Hence my dilemma, which may be the answer. Even God can’t be all things to all people…because, people. But life is in the “try”.

        • Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System –VAERS
          .
          Similar to ‘Broken Arrow’ — incident involving or ‘accidently’ missing nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons components — some astute observers might wonder “How often does Inoculation Adverse Reaction occur…”

  2. Apparently, someone gave the Puppet Masters a talking to. They’ve been walking back all the intel claims.

    • You cant take back a fired bullet… though they lie through their teeth all the time so there is nothing new there.

  3. The more the shooting goes on, the more this resembles gangsters defending their hideout with the help of crooked cops. Before the shooting, Putin expressed his specific objectives; however the disinformation makes it extremely difficult to tell what is true and what is just made up.

    For decades the Ukraine has been a laundry for big shot westerners and a railroad of human trafficking. In the same manner as the Maxwell trial, where we heard from some of those who were used but never heard a name or saw a photo of those using the girls. Instead those records were sealed. Now, the response from the western nations is just like the judge sealing records of the traffickers.

    • They’re down to 2 operational frigates in the Black Sea and Turkey closed the straits. They have a distinctly limited supply. If they try and take Odessa in an amphib operation, they’ll lose those remaining two in addition to the alligators.

      • Hard to believe the Russians didn’t get a few more ships in there before Turkey invoked the Montreux Convention.

        Looks like they expected the Ukrainians to just roll over….

        • The Russians planned for a one week war in their worst case scenario, and for Ukrainians to decorate their tanks with flowers.

          The concept of the Moskva and then the Admiral Markov (two flagships) sunk in series was wild to the point of absurdity to them.

          Now you know that Xi will make Putin his bitch. Putin will have no choice.

  4. Seems the Makarov’s alive and well in Sebastopol. Ukraine itself admits it, a “confusion.” Surely vids of its destruction weren’t taken from video games? Clever psyops. Then there’s the Snake Island attack, which didn’t do so well. Perhaps Turkey was trying to showcase its drones.

    Speaking of which, I say again, let’s have CONSTANTINOPLE back. We clearly need the Bosphorus.

      • “…. merely another Ethiopian in the woodpile…”
        W. C. Fields
        .
        Alternatively:
        * “… surely, a Ubangi in the woodpile…”
        .
        Apparently, that quaintism is temporarily out-of-style.

  5. Still wondering how the Ukrainian missiles got past the 30 mm Gatling CIWS that both ships carried. Those throw some serious metal at incoming “visitors”. “Intel” doesn’t stop kinetics.

    • I have no access to this sort of intel – however, SIGINT knows when your radar operators are changing shifts, or when the systems may be shut down or cycled for some reason. The missiles allegedly hit at about 5 am, sunrise, possibly at shift change. The best SIGINT in the world is focused on the Russians in the Black Sea. They may even have access to watch bills for all I know (COMINT)

      In the Russian navy systems are operated by officers, not enlisted. It’s a very different philosophy in western navies where NCOs are specialists and officers are generalists. Careful analysis can show you who is on duty (careful vs careless). At the risk of offending fellow officers, we are usually grumpy first thing in the morning when nobody is watching US. Mabe five sips of Stoli before you head off to the rack and BOOM.

  6. A part of the problem as I see it is that they know who we are and where we live but the reverse is seldom the case. I would dearly like to watch them right back.

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