Crisis Management

Blog Post

“Never let a good crisis go to waste.” – Rahm Emanuel

 

Assume Nukes in Orbit

The new wargames, called Apollo Insight, combine military and commercial expertise to respond to simulated threats in space. Space Command plans to conduct four Apollo Insight “tabletop exercises” this year.

“We’ve done one already,” Whiting said. “We did one focused on a nuclear payload in orbit, which, of course, is a future we do not want to see, and that would violate the Outer Space Treaty. But we brought 60-something companies together at the classified level to share insights into what such a detonation might do, and then get their good ideas about how we could leverage capability to have today or future technologies that might help us going forward.” (h/t Claudio)

SPACECOM should assume nukes in orbit as part of its mission. And at the risk of sounding like I work at PROD, nuclear proliferation is coming in the next decade as a fact of life, not as a fantasy thing. The Saudis and the Japanese will definitely develop nuclear weapons, and the South Koreans are close behind. Not to do that with the Ukrainian example shining brightly would be folly. One can only hope that the Iranian ambitions in that direction have been halted or severely impeded, but the Norks can definitely throw a nuke into orbit.

 

 

Bullet Points:

** VDH discusses Barack’s stooges.

** Keep calm (right). Help might be on the way. Manage the crisis and work the problem.

** More trouble in the UK with managed decline. The Defense Investment Plan, intended to set out the MoD’s funding priorities and program commitments, has been repeatedly delayed. Its finalization has been cited in recent parliamentary correspondence as a barrier to a number of decisions on capabilities and infrastructure across the armed forces. The Aeralis administration is the most direct public consequence yet of those delays for a UK defense company.

** A military exercise in Sweden turns into a warning for NATO.

** 173 House Democrats vote against resolution honoring police during National Police Week. The GOP-authored measure praised officers’ ‘extraordinary sacrifice’ and criticized the defund the police movement — drawing support from just 29 Democrats. The vote landed as assaults on officers hit a 10-year high.

** The Brunswick Dragoons at the battle of Bennington, Vermont. Lt. Col Baum is ordering his men to draw their broadswords to try to cut their way out. Didn’t work, and Baum was mortally wounded. Four of the enlisted dragoon swords and one officer’s sword still survive. The captured ones were issued to the 2nd Continental Light Dragoons. The models were posed with two of the original surviving Brunswick Dragoon swords. artofdontroiani.com

** EuroTrash vs Musk.

** CDRSAL has commented on the new Navy budget for ship construction at some length, and he does a better job than I would do. This article also takes on the topic. (h/t Claudio) I discussed earlier that a battle cruiser/battleship concept should be nuclear powered, and now it is. Not because of me, but because it only makes sense. Whether you call it the new CGNX or the BBGNX is a matter of naval semantics. The Navy needs to replace the aging aircraft carriers at an expanded rate, but I don’t know that there is a budget for what needs to be done. Throwing my cracker in the soup, the Navy needs to develop its next-generation carrier-based strike aircraft before we decide what that new CVN looks like. No matter what, it won’t look like the USAF entry, and it shouldn’t. They are two separate development paths with two different missions and criteria. Navy aircraft need different marine stealth coatings that hold up to saltwater; they likely need a two-aviator crew profile, two-engine reliability, and long enough legs to strike without extensive mid-air refueling (will it look something like a Vigilante [RA5C] with updated stealth characteristics when they’re done planning?). The reason that I write this about the new CVN is simply that we may be designing a ship around an aircraft in this instance.

** Dental Surgery – in a cave – 59,000 years ago in what’s now southwestern Siberia, a Neanderthal had a toothache. It must have been a doozy because they were desperate enough to sit still while someone drilled into the tooth with a sharp stone tool, removing the infected tissue and ultimately relieving the pain. One question you need to ask yourself is this: Was Boron alive at the time to do the dental work for the Neanderthals? The jury is still out on that one. More here (h/t Claudio)

** Capitalism lifts people out of poverty. And that’s the only thing it does. But that’s the only thing that matters. In 1800, 90% of humanity lived in extreme poverty. Today, less than 8%. That drop is the greatest moral victory in human history. It wasn’t produced by a revolution. Not by a government program. Not by a manifesto. It was produced by people who had the right to create, sell, keep what they earned, and reinvest.

** (Florida Highway Patrol blotter) Tammy Hollister, 39, was arrested after attempting to perform a full exorcism on the rear bathroom of a northbound Greyhound bus at 2:27 a.m. somewhere along I-75 between Ocala and Gainesville. Hollister reportedly told arresting officers she was “simply answering a holy summons received at the Fort Myers terminal water fountain” and that the bathroom had been “vibrating with disturbance” since the Punta Gorda transfer. She also presented a 23-page hand-illustrated binder titled “Roadside Deliverance Manual: A Greyhound Devotional” featuring sketches of haunted restrooms and a hand-drawn map of “spiritually compromised rest stops” along I-75. Trooper Garrett Whitlock of the Florida Highway Patrol told reporters, “I’ve worked the I-75 corridor for 27 years. I’ve broken up rest-stop boiled-peanut disputes, mediated luggage standoffs at every Love’s between here and Wildwood, and once arrested a woman trying to fistfight a vending machine over an unreleased moon pie. This is the first time in my career I have ever entered 4 melted candles, a bottle of olive oil, and a 23-page binder titled ‘Roadside Deliverance Manual’ as evidence.”

** Musk’s impression of Trump’s visit to China. Take it for what it’s worth.

** The UK – tired of importing savages.

 

Map

 

Identify the AFV

1

 

Identify the Aircraft

2

 

3

 

4

 

End

 

42 thoughts on “Crisis Management

  1. (1) Some variety of CV-90. …and an Archer, I think.
    (2) Vigilante.
    (3) Tomcat.
    (4) F/A-18.
    Low detail, I know.
    – Kle.

  2. Identify the AFV
    1 – Swedish CV90

    Identify the Aircraft
    2 – North American RA-5C Vigilante
    3 – Grumman F-14 Tomcat
    4 – Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet

  3. Eng-rich immigration problems: Bear with me a minnit. Let’s say the Iranian mullahs announce they’ll give up and leave town, but only if they get political asylum in the UK. And let’s say Kier says, “come on down” and they leave forthwith, just GTFO without further ado and that Kier is there to greet them with open arms when they land at Heathrow and promptly turns them loose, a move sure to be popular with a large portion of his support base these days. After which, they sally forth to do that voodoo that they do so well, and London becomes New Mecca. I’m sure there are seventy-five good reasons why this couldn’t happen, but what the hell. Then fast forward a few years and maybe the next Islamic country to have nukes, an functioning production capability and a delivery system might not be in the Mid-East. Then what?

    1. Would it satisfy the no-kings crowd if a “caliph” sat on the British throne? They seem to avoid protesting kings in places like Saudi Arabia.

  4. Identify the AFV:
    1. CV9040 IFV and Archer artillery system
    Identify the Aircraft:
    2. North American RA-5C Vigilante
    3. Grumman F-14D Tomcat
    4. Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet

    1. I got the Tomcat and Super Hornet because both were static displays at squadron’s I was asigned to.

  5. Musk does have the ability to cut through the noise layer and pull out the correct optic, it’s part of the true entrepreneurial mind. His pulling ‘X’ is him not playing their juvenile ‘we demand to own the narrative’ games by [theoretically] energizing the Yutes to demand the elites quit screwing with their comm’s platforms. Could generate a mini revolution. His take on the China Confab is correct, wasn’t about getting a parr deal done, more about opening a line of communication that is easy to blow off over the phone but next to impossible when in the same room sitting across from each other. PDJT knows the game better than most…maybe anyone at this point.
    ***
    Map: When actual facts destroy historical ignorance, a condition that is rampant among a certain segment of college over-educated society (eg. wear your 100 micron weave mask to stop a 1 micron virus).
    ***
    Florida Woman: Love the troopers commentary, he should write a book. More importantly, it’s good to know that Bus Loo Exorcisms are verboten, didn’t know those are against an actual law. Seriously, what harm could it do, just a couple of candles and some chanting, unless she was disallowing usage of said facility for extended peripds, especially in Florida where older men are only good for 30 miles between ‘visits’.

    1. ‘parr’…hahah, have no idea where that came from…extra non-word. (reaches for reading glasses)

      1. What would have happened if the exorcism had resulted in a free-floating fantasm screaming around the bus on the highway – that’s why we don’t do exorcisms in bus lavatories.

        1. Got it…hadn’t thought of that aspect. Of course, you could always call Ghostbusters once said entity was released from Loo captivity (‘LooCap’ in military-speak). But maybe closing the lid do the same since these types often latch to keep said materials from splashing out when driving over our wonderful (not) roads.

    2. I’ve been on a Greyhound bus a couple times. The bathrooms on the buses, if you can call them that, better would be mobile portaloo, definitely needed exorcisms.

  6. Saturday, we were at MtHome Idaho AFB watching the airshow. Two Growler relatives of the FA18 were up, demonstrating their awesome sound and maneuverability. It was a very windy day. During the Sunday edition of the show (also very windy) they collided, entangled and crashed. All four on board ejected safely. Video can be found online.

        1. I would be surprised if anyone could stick two Growlers together like that on purpose.
          What a bizarre accident. Glad everyone got out.
          *
          Why the hell were we using Growlers in an airshow?! They must cost twice what a
          SuperBug does, and I can’t imagine that they are aerobatically superior in any way?
          Everything about this event is weird.
          – Kle.

          1. The Growlers were available. And nobody expected them to crash together.

            I do anticipate new orders regarding airshows requiring more separation between non-aerobatic-trained aircrews/aircraft. The .mil version of the rules after that warbirds mid-air years ago.

            Other than that, I don’t expect the War Department to change much.

  7. 1. I’ve no (that’s a total zero [0] wish to get technical, but…
    2. I’ve had a long hx of trusting the veracity of any and all research coming out of the Soviet Union (and succeeding years) – but only after 10 shots of vodka (Polmos Spirytus Rektyfikowany)
    3. The article in Ars Technica confuses Chagyrskaya 18 with Chagyrskaya 64, the tooth under analysis for the article in Public Library of Science (PLOS) and states incorrectly that this is an upper (maxillary) third molar. The PLOS article states “Chagyrskaya 64 is the lower second molar of an adult individual.” The Russian team, reporting in PLOS has a problem determining whether right or left; the shorter root is typically (99%) the mesial root making this a left second molar. No matter.
    4. “Chagyrskaya 64 has a second cavity, which overlaps a groove in the side of the tooth that looks like trademark evidence of picking.” “The crown and roots also exhibit significant post-depositional cracking,…” The team assumes that the cracking occurred long after the individual had died and was a result of de- and rehydration while in the site.
    However, It should be noted that the “groove” looks remarkably like a widened micro-fracture, which, considering the diet (and cleansing) would not be all that unlikely. I saw many such situations while in active practice as an endodontist and recommended them for extraction – they don’t heal; the endodontics fails.
    5. The researcher (and team) makes one fatal error: they assume that the pulp chamber has been accessed while the patient/victim/individual was still alive. I would like to posit an alternative: the tooth was loose in the socket (the surrounding bone had dissolved/eroded away due to bacterial action (which may have been instrumental in the individual’s death), the tooth was removed, and the pulp chamber was accessed post-mortem. Many possible reasons: I can’t get into their minds and I wasn’t (LL) there to ask them.
    My background for the answer:
    BA Cornell ’62 major Chemistry (Organic), minors Anthropology/Archeology and Math; DDS NYU ’66; Endodontics Speciality Program NYU ’70

    1. Hey, if Chuck Noland can self-remove an offending tooth with a rock and a skate blade in a cave on a deserted island, pretty sure the Neanderthals figured out quick extractions over time, especially since toothbrushes and paste hadn’t been invented yet,
      …best we know.

  8. Elon Musk is one of the few people I read/listen to who enjoys, understands, (and can translate for the masses) multi-dimensional chess (AKA political economics).
    I wish he would take the time (which like many others like LL he doesn’t have) and money to purchase (and run) a TV station/newspaper through which the world’s activities can be disseminated after being digested by non-political (heh!) journalists

    1. Guessing that might be next on his list, beamed through Starlink so ‘the they’ couldn’t shut him down.

    2. FWIW, The Elon vs EU thing is a myth. I saw a different version on Youtube a couple of months ago. X is behaving normally right now, I’m sure there would be signs if there was anything to the story.

  9. Re the nukes in space, I’m betting they are already there. And the fact that ‘micro’ liquid sodium reactor will fit in a CONEX leads me to believe there are already at least a few of them up there powering long duration (probably geosync) satellites. If they do another ‘variant’ of the Viggie, I hope to hell they give the RIO a real canopy! Those little windows suck, especially if the bus driver isn’t telling you what he’s doing!!!

    1. Wasn’t there a movie about nukes in earth orbit? James Garner and a bunch of other big hitters. There is just nothing new under the sun.

  10. That map is something that I roughly figured out on my own when I was 13 and decided to start defending Christianity and the Crusades.

    Yes, there were some serious douche-nozzles amongst the Crusaders. How shocking, no? But, overall, the Crusades were defensive struggles in order to preserve Christians, Christian holy sites and Christian settlements.

    Anyone, especially the current ruling class in Spain, that tells you otherwise are asshats extraordinaire. And should be added to your ‘make sure to shoot them when the shooting starts bigly’ list.

  11. Nuke propulsion for the battlecruisers and for any future heavy cruiser class is a must. Best mass-vs-speed and energy needs answer to the power equation.

    I’m surprised nobody’s pushing smaller modular reactors for a DD class. Especially as modern nuke designs are far more efficient and smaller-per-power output than older versions. I do understand there’s a point where you can’t scale down efficiently, but let’s try pushing the envelope here, people.

    As to ship numbers, those need to be bumped up. And no ship, looking at you Zumwalts, should have no big gun on them. So the AGS doesn’t work well or monetarily efficiently. So? We have auto 155mm guns already, just marinize them and bing, bang, boom there you go.

  12. It looks like France moved to the Balkans and Spain moved to the Italian coast in the top map.

    I read “God’s Battalions” by Rodney Stark a few years ago. Good history of the Crusades.

  13. >nukes in orbit
    I wouldn’t be suprised if some of the Chinese communications satellites are just shells, with either nukes or some variation of Pournelle’s ‘flying crowbars’.
    Our new battleships should be low riders, capable of taking nuclear hits, with underwater supply and missle reloading.

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