Not Mars

Blog Post

The sky is blue. It can’t be MARS.

 

Bullet Points:

** Question of the day: Can the Invisible Man feel cold?

** Jules is just testing the water.

** What is the most difficult truth that you’ve had to swallow in your life?

** While the United Kingdom sits on the sidelines, citing fleet shortages and European priorities, Argentina has answered President Trump’s call for allied support in the Strait of Hormuz.

On March 16, 2026, the Argentine Navy deployed two frigates to escort oil tankers through the critical chokepoint amid escalating Iranian threats and the effective closure of the strait due to the ongoing conflict. This marks Argentina as the only nation so far to commit naval assets in direct response to the U.S. request for international escorts to keep global energy flowing. Did the US back the wrong horse in the Falklands War?

** A hint for you gunslingers from Hickok45.

** Well, well, the US has a new bomb: Hours ago, U.S. forces successfully employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles in these sites posed a risk to international shipping.

** 33% of Seattle’s office buildings are vacant (Beck).

** “No intelligent man has any respect for an unjust law. Nor does he feel any guilt over breaking it.” – Heinlein

 

 

 

 

Oil and Such

China bought oil through the shadow market because it could and because it was a great deal. China had the cash, and the three sanctioned countries were desperate to sell their oil.  The Russians were so desperate for cash that they were selling oil at close to cost, which was almost half the world market price.

The Chinese profited greatly from discounted oil.  They used cheap oil to manufacture cheap goods at even lower prices than everyone else, and got wealthy in the process.  They used that wealth to lend to and bribe developing countries, slowly gaining control over other natural resources, such as rare earth elements.  This was part of China’s strategy for years.

Now, that strategy may be coming to an end.  The world oil market price is approaching $100 per barrel.  This is around $40 more per barrel than it was just a couple of months ago.  The war in Iran is temporarily helping Russia, but it is having the opposite effect on China.  The cost of Russian oil is rising, and China can no longer get discounted oil from Venezuela.  This brings us to Iran.

The U.S. and Israel had plenty of reasons to drop the hammer on Iran.  Nuclear weapons development was just the final straw.  You cannot trust religious fanatics with weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles.  We have a similar issue with North Korea.  The only difference is that Kim Jong-un knows war will cost him his communist paradise.  The mullahs in Iran think war will make them martyrs in heaven.

One way of getting the upper hand on Iran is to either get control of Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf or threaten to destroy the oil export terminal there.  The export terminal accounts for 90% of Iranian oil shipments by sea.  Destroy the terminal or get control of the island, and the Iranian regime runs out of money fast.

The mere fact that the U.S. can destroy the terminal should be enough.  The U.S. military took out most of Kharg Island’s defenses just the other day, but left the oil terminal alone.  There is a method to this madness.  Those of you who have read Frank Herbert’s original Dune novel or watched the movies will remember that in relation to the spice, Paul Atreides, aka Muad’ Dib, says, “The power to destroy a thing is the absolute control over it.”

So, now that the U.S. can destroy the terminal, will they do it?  No. Trump wants oil prices to drop as quickly as possible before the midterm elections.  Destroying the terminal would very likely keep prices high for months.  For the price to come down, the oil must flow.

Of course, we are dealing with a government of Muslim Shia clerics.  Those who have not already fled to Afghanistan, the United Kingdom, or Canada might decide to blow it up to spite Trump.  This means the next most logical step is for the U.S. military to get control of it.

This creates a unique and interesting situation.  Kharg Island is a valuable piece of real estate.  Donald Trump is a transactional type of president who does not like to see the U.S. military used without getting something in return.  Recall that Ukraine was forced to sign a minerals deal as payment for American military assistance.  Once the U.S. takes Kharg Island, why not keep it?

There is some logic to it.  The U.S. could ensure the oil is sold at market price, say, with a 5%-10% handling fee for guarding the Strait of Hormuz.  If that happens, China can get discounted oil only from one place: Russia.  Once the war with Ukraine is over, it’s likely those oil sanctions will be lifted, then China will likely be forced to pay full price or at least a higher one than they are now.  If the U.S. controls Kharg Island and China misbehaves, then we can effectively cut off a large portion of their oil at the source.

 

 

Identify the Ship

1

 

2

 

3

 

 

End

48 thoughts on “Not Mars

  1. 1 – USS Pierre
    2 – Japanese Navy seaplane tender Chitose
    3 – Japanese Navy light aircraft carrier Ryūjō

  2. Argentina –
    Personally I don’t think the Argentina of 1982 would have helped the USA. It was at the time a military dictatorship started by Juan Perón a big fan of the Nazi system. He spent a lot of time in Germany in early WW2.

    Britain then of course had Margaret Thatcher as PM and a real navy. Person I know used to report directly to her. Will ask his opinion but I think she would have sent everything they had.

    1. Mrs. and I had the great good fortune to attend a talk given by Mrs. Thatcher. And then a second time couple years later. She did not disappoint either time; she was spectacular. I thought, there, RIGHT THERE, is the reason there’ll always be an England. Not so sure about that “always” business now. I doubt very much all that nonsense going on over there would be occurring if she was still in charge.
      .
      In other news, Hickock45 has done flung a craving for a S&W Trail Boss revolver on me.

        1. Yes. They were designed for that purpose. I don’t know why (in specific) they did that. To get the revolver cartidge? But 7.62×38? The design is old, but they made them for a long time – starting with a generl police issue in 1898.

    2. I was somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but Argentina 1982 was the last time that Great Britain could muster its own unsupported fleet and sally forth to kick the ass of — Argentina? At the time, I wondered about the brave boasting that they were able to best — Argentina. Yes, how things have changed over 45 years. The Royal Navy has continued its decline, and the UK is proudly on the verge of being its own caliphate. The British lost seven ships against the Argentines during the 1982 Falklands War. RFA Sir Tristram was severely damaged but made it back to Old Blighty and was repaired. There is serious talk about replacing the Union Jack with something less martial and traditional. The Cross of St. George does offend a certain influential demographic there. Yes, things have changed.

      1. As you said. Then-Argentina was a potential threat to the whole power dynamics in South America and Reagan’s tacit and material support of Great Britain was a goodly and Godly thing. That Great Britain was a nation still worthy of helping and of being allied to.

        Fast forward 45 years and This-Argentina is a great friend and definite asset to the rightful power dynamic in South and Central America (though they really can’t project power into Canada’s sphere of influence, yet.) While This-Great Britain consisting of the current government and the now-islamic cities are a threat to the world power dynamic and should be treated as second-rate actors on the world stage. (Basically, yeah, we’ll acknowledge their existence but do whatever the damned we want to do because they’re inconsequential.)

        Same with most of Europe. Denmark? Aha. Ahahahahahahaaaa snort. Whatever. We should have gotten Greenland after WWII anyways but Trump’s masterclass of ‘”What’s in my right hand?” while the left hand does the real work’ over Greenland still has people confused. Hey, it was all about getting Denmark to bend and give us the concessions we were asking for. Denmark doesn’t have the navy to project past its territorial waters, let alone protect Greenland’s territorial waters. Though they have banned the burqa and hijab, so that’s a good start.

        France? They sortied their carrier and then called it back. And refuse US flights over their territory.

        Germany? Germany hasn’t been consequential since they absorbed East Germany and then elected so many ex-East Germans into positions of power who then proceeded to ‘green’ the combined nation so badly that they couldn’t run their tanks, planes and ships due to bio-fuels being so horrid in military applications.

        Norway? Snort.

        Finland? Hmmm, seems the Finns may actually be a burgeoning power-player in Euro-real-politics. And they hate Russia. Hmmm…

        Estonia looks to be sending two of their minesweepers to the Straits of Hormuz, and tiny Estonia has a great history of effective naval mine-sweeping thanks to the fecklessness of both the USSR and of modern Russia and the way both treated/treat Estonian waters.

        Poland is concentrating on protecting themselves against Russia and its allies. And of the refugee-caliphate that is taking over the rest of Europe. They need to spend their time focusing on that front.

        Then there’s Japan. Who receives a lot of their oil from producers in the Middle East. But they have their naval forces tied up keeping tabs on and keeping the reins on the ChiComs. I cut them some slack for that. They’ve got a constant low-intensity war going on and they’re doing the best to prop up the Philippines and other small nations in the area, and the Japanese still have that whole ‘we’re not quite ready to do long-distance operations’ thingy left over from the aftermath of WWII. And, as I said, they’ve got their hands full. Would be nice if they did support us, but, well, they’re a better ally than the United Caliphate, I mean, United Kingdom.

  3. Identify the Ship:
    1. USS Pierre, an Independence-class LCS.
    2. IJN Chitose, in original seaplane tender layout.
    3. IJN Ryūhō, converted from submarine tender.

  4. Seattle; WA like Texas and other states HAD no income tax. In the same stream of devastation, like rampant homelessness in the Seattle metro, their betters have decided sales tax will improve the lives of the children. ( sound familiar?) The remaining crumbs that may fall from the grifters projected 3B annual banquet are designated to make small businesses and families dependent on AID in the form of ” tax relief” in order to survive.

    Personally knew of 2 families that made their exodus from WA state. After 2020 they saw the lights going out on their 1A and 2A rights and migrated to Texas and Florida.

    The ghost town feel of Seattle’s sister city S.F. echos the top hits of that infamous three part harmony group…Inslee, Newsom and Brown. Now the Duet, governor Bob and Galvin still singing off key, ” the eve of destruction”.

    1. The disarmingly familiar pattern that will turn Seattle into San Francisco North is something that the left embraces.

      1. A component of Seattle’s decline was jacking up the minimum wage. The amenities that made Seattle interesting had to raise prices. Office workers could no longer afford lunch. Small businesses went under. Just a small thing but small things add up. The dishwashers and janitors are now living on the streets. Too simplistic?

  5. RCC’s right. Falklands Argentina is not the same regime as today.

    We do not need to occupy Kharg (tho i think we will), just deny its use- which should be rather easy with a verbal warning to the tankers.

    1. I think that either way, Pres. Trump will have Iran pay for the cost of the war. It’s true, we don’t need to occupy Kharg to control it.

    1. If he did, the price of crude would go much higher. He’s trying to manage that in the midst of a war there. Domestic prices have jumped and he knows that people follow that. Because it’s a global commodity, the price is not fixed in the Permian Basin.

      1. Problem is the American General Public does not understand where gasoline comes from (or supermarket packaged beef for that matter), most are unable to see 6 inches past their noses so scream bloody murder with a price hike at the tank or grocery or Starbucks, immediately going to ‘Trump promised to reduce prices and he didn’t!’ short-sightedness. The man is up against serious Swamp Obstructionism yet is still winning on all fronts. It’ll flesh out here in the next week or two and prices will rebalance.

  6. Germany, and Japan, became helpless when their ability to acquire fuel ended. The current situation in Iran shows an understanding of how the fuel stoppage is a military advantage, if not a victory. Europe either takes part in securing the fuel from aggressors, or is the first to suffer terrible consequences. Considering the military size in many European countries, they don’t have much to offer, and are helpless. It’s amazing the change from 70 years ago. The lessons learned in WW2 were terrible on Europe, and now seem to be forgotten.

  7. dumb question (for today, anyway):
    why doesn’t the UAE build a pipeline (or two or 5) from Sharjah to Khor Fakkan?

  8. Opener: It may not be Mars but danged close in August. Very cool [looking] landscape…but stay outta slot canyons.
    ***
    “Can the Invisible Man feel cold?”; Only in Wisconsin between Nov-Feb…goes right through a person even if you can’t see them. (Yeah, really bad pun…altho seriously true…at least the Cheese Castle is open year-round.)
    ***
    33% of Seattle’s office buildings are vacant…now do Philly and NYC. Hochal wants multimillionaires to return to New York to help prop up the onerous spendy social(ist) programs…said it out loud without an ounce of shame. Do I sell EVERYTHING and be (what she called) a patriot and go help ’em out? Not on her odoriferous life.
    ***
    Difficult Truth?: I only get one choice? Here’s two: a) ‘The world does not think like me by a longshot’…and…b) There is a lot of evil in the world, even despite Christ, and often within one’s own circle.
    Okay a third (I find it hard to follow rules): ‘I’m not 18 anymore’ (even if the brain and will believes otherwise).
    Like many have said: ‘Getting older is NOT for the feint of heart.’
    ***
    Last Panel: Yes, More Of That Please!…’Guys’ won’t cut it anymore as the world shrinks and (see ‘Life Lesson’ above), there are people who want you dead so best gird the loins, step up, be a man, and be prepared. (Ex: Sheridan writes that scene in The Madison (excellent East v. Rural West) where the one daughter is walking down a Manhattan sidewalk and some reprobate scumbag brutally clocks her then steals her bag…yet she can’t even bring herself to admit ‘the race’ to the cops. Zero SISU in that character.)
    ***
    Sidebar: Joe Kent was bought. TC was bought or went nuts, or both. Owens went nuts and was bought…hecne why he went to them first (anyone see a pattern here?) Patience is a must for short-term fuel and grocery price hikes as this Iran mess fleshes out. PDJT knows exactly what he is doing and WTP need to wait it out a little longer as fungible market scammers fiddle with the numbers to make him look bad while making cash on the going up and the downside. a buck forty in a few days is obvious manipulation, and exactly why Biden’s Handlers quit America’s energy independence mode 45 had set up…to hamstring us going forward to world marketeers.

      1. Add Cesar Chavez to the odoriferous mix. Apparently – and despite The Coexist Left holding him up as some hero to be worshiped, naming all manner of stuff after the guy, was a serious woman abuser (besides hating and beating on illegals). New details I heard on Stigall this morning is his ‘main woman’ turned 90 and is doing a tell-all. Ugly stuff.

  9. Difficult Truth?: Not everyone is looking to hear about Jesus.
    Interesting however is that a friend I worked with 30 years ago and talk on the phone to once a year called and asked me to pray for him…That he could believe.

    1. Epic Ed…staying with it for 30 years…only to hear ‘those words’. And ‘yes’ to your truth…never understood the reluctance (I do now).

  10. Israel has gone for decapitation strikes in Iran, while the US has been targeting military targets and potential nuclear operations. BIG difference!

  11. Most difficult truth – Well, two, although closely related:
    (1) That a very large but unknown number of people, certainly a significant chunk
    of the species, do not use reason, and that even if they wanted to, very many are
    probably incapable of doing so if taught how.
    (2) That a similar chunk of Humanity fervently desires to be slaves.
    *
    Took me a lot of years to learn that many things I think of as basic Human universals
    are not that, at all.
    – Kle.

  12. So, LL, what’s up with the picture of your backside? Consulting with body recovery or something more fun?

      1. Oh, sand is shifty. Learned about sugar sand (a really vicious version of sand found in Florida) the first time Dad took us surf-fishing after arriving in Florida. Think loose shifty sand that you can sink down into just by walking on it.

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